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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (450)	12/2/2003 11:23:54 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 2955

Eric, Thanks for your thoroughness in your response to Tinker. I'm going to highlight just two of your many points. Gilder forgets that there is a big difference between an air interface and a standard. CDMA is a superior air interface to TDMA, but cdmaOne is not a superior standard to GSM. This reminds me of the great difficulty of valuing Qualcomm's competitive advantages. To have an informed opinion about that, I'd have to have an unbiased grasp of the technical issues; the challenges, opportunities and risks of each competing standard; government policies; financial condition of Qualcomm's customers; the macro-economic factors; and the courts with regard to international trade agreements, patents and and contracts. I'm not an expert in any of those fields. I am simply concerned about the pace and scale or buildout and rollout of the technology and I am convinced it will not occur as fast and as furious as some others believe. That reminds me of the Buckley Theory of Product Adoption: Determine the amount of time required for product adoption to achieve a certain benchmark. Double it. Double it again. Double it at least one more time. Then assume your estimate is still overly ambitious. --Mike Buckley

To: Eric L who wrote (450)	12/2/2003 8:33:11 PM
From: tinkershaw	Respond to of 2955

Hi Eric, Only have a few seconds here, can't even finish reading your fine post, but I will get back to it, but you asked: With your new CDMA Treo (how do you like it?) if you're in a data session and somebody tries to reach you their call goes to voice mail. That's inconvenient to say the least, and it's not the case with the GPRS TREO and it won't be with an EGPRS TREO. We are back to that air-interface rather than platform for services thingie. Love the TREO 600, love it. Disappointed with data capacity however. It is like surfing the net on dial-up in 1996. Then again, there is no EV-DO in my phone, and I'm in Atlanta with Sprint, so I'm assuming my air interface is not very 3G endowed as of yet. But it is the coolest technology device ever made, or so say the gawkers who constantly gape at it. Did not know I could not get phone calls while on the web. Will have to test that reality. Tinker

To: Eric L who wrote (450)	12/3/2003 1:37:40 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2955

The only inferiority EDGE has to 1xEV-DO Release 0 is downlink data transmission rates. and that difference is of course sizeable. In that regard IS-856 blows EDGE or WCDMA (without the HSDPA extension) away. To some individuals and particularly corporate business types that could be very important. It creates a big pipe but on the downside it does so at the expense of spectrum that could otherwise be used for voice (and data), and that will limit its adoption. Speed aside, technically EDGE has some marked advantages over 1xEV-DO Release 0 which offers no QoS, no multitasking of voice and data, and not even the capability to pause a data session to take a voice call then resume the data session, and has very week integration with CDMA2000 and as a consequence must be managed separately I think you are missing one key aspect in the comparision between EDGE and 1xEV-DO....cost per megabyte. I think that this is the basic advantage that DO is supposed to be able to deliver to the CDMA carriers. It is impossible to get good data on this subject, but the fact that both KDDI and SK Telecom dramatically lowered their data pricing with the deployment of DO would seem indicative of its cost advantages over 1xrtt. This isnt a direct comparision to EDGE, but thus far, EDGE and 1xrtt seem comparable. Of course, this depends on the carrier. Verizon has never been a company that has pushed pricing to get market share. Slacker