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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bluegreen who wrote (16502)	12/3/2003 8:15:22 AM
From: Robert K.	Respond to of 17367

Bluegreen> I am personally projecting profitability in 2006 or thereabouts. Profits could come sooner indeed or profits could come latter or never if xoma squanders. I guess that xoma management does want profitability no latter than 2006. IMO 2005 is also very possible and 2004 is not impossible. My point is that even if you project out to 2006, if they achieve profitability in 2006 >then its a very pretty picture indeed. By 2006 it is very possible that the 40 mil due from sales will be gone and the usa money will flow right to xoma >FROM THE 2006 SALES LEVELS. Also by 2006 non-usa approvals should have been in place and ramping underway with immediate royalties coming via bermuda. Its the immediate money from non-usa sales that could narrow the losses quick. Its the exhaustion of the payment to dna thru raptiva sales that starts the money pouring in. I do think that xoma will be accounting for raptiva sales earnings quarterly though, but the money will in fact start pouring in AFTER the 40 mil is paid. The other wild card is xoma can still PREPAY the 40 mil ANYTIME at xomas option. AND that would really start the money really flowing in sooner. Bottom line is everything seems to be coming together in 2006. USA + non-USA + 2 years ramp + a clearer picture on newer indications & off label usage prior to fda nod. PLUS bpi platform HOPEFULLY sees 2 more years of REAL development and a strong partner + MAYBE ing-1 and more partnering and development thru infrastructure. Just project out for yourself what 2006 will look like. I can envision things nicely. Now that I have said that, the market WONT wait until 2006 to re-value xoma. The 2005 revaluation will happen anytime now and the 2006 revaluation will happen in 2004 or 2005. 600 million for xoma ($7)> peanuts IMO. If the picture plays out well one can project perhaps multiples of those numbers. Big if. We will see. Remember these are all my projections and opinions which are always worthless. Do your own projecting and your own due diligence. Also >Sheet happens. VBG . skd always

To: Bluegreen who wrote (16502)	12/3/2003 2:42:13 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Wrong in 2004, and Wrong in his comparison of Raptiva vs Amevive. Raptiva IS an IMMUNESUPPRESANT drug, they are not just an "immunemodulator" and their side effects profile is not better than Amevive, neither is the efficacy. That Fortis guy is obviously pandering to his own investment, fine, I am pandering my own too !!! But, xoma will not be profitable in 2004, xoma will be lucky if they can ramp up $50 millions in 2004. Then it will give xoma $12.5 millions, that xoma can burn in one quarter. Raptiva sales should go near $250 millions for xoma to be profitable, assuming current burning cash and current number of shares. xoma is not awash in cash, xoma is washing cash for Dna.