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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (86754)	12/3/2003 7:01:43 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

If one shorts what one thinks is the end of a correction, be it the end of the A-B-C that is the complete bear market interlude or the end of only an A-B-C that is an '[A]' wave, it matters not as it will be a very successful short. One will only have to start worrying about which is in control many months later. Well put, Allan. Vintage stuff. I think it is fairly likely that this A-B-C of the past 14 months may evolve into a more complex and lengthy structure. The future scenario which would discombobulate most participants - at least in the longer time frames - would be a range. (Range is what happened in Japan). We can trust Mr. Market (who is the greatest psychologist, but by no means an altruist) to cause the most havoc with the largest number of players. OTOH, as I recall, in the "Tidal Wave" Prechter concluded that the first "ABC" down of the "Grand Supercycle" Correction would be a zigzag. However - with the exception of the OTC - since the top in 2000 the decline in the broader indices has not been very impulsive. I understand that Robert Prechter, in order to keep his larger picture afloat, came up with a new theory - he thinks that the decline into the October 2002 low (DOW/SP) has been a Leading Diagonal - but of a newly "identified" variety - his new LD "broadens", rather then narrows down. A "Broadening Leading Diagonal". If (IF) he is right, then over the next few years we are likely to see an impulsive five-wave decline. I have a lot of respect for Mr. Prechter... but we'll have to live and see. ...Which brings me to one more thing. Last Friday at about 3 am I ended up having emergency surgery for a small intestinal obstruction. (Naw... it wasn't overeating, I never even made it to dinner... -g). Anyway, I'll need to focus more on getting myself (sort of literally) back together again. I'll check in - or chime in - once in a while, but I won't be very active until things straighten out. I have tickets to go skiing in Colorado at the end of January, and by Jove, I do intend to use them... g/ng.