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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (34118)	12/3/2003 4:47:58 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

jr, I have not decided my exact strategy. I confess to having held my sizeable load of pms, which is still over 100%. There are sideways to up, and even rising corrections, and I have taken this into consideration, so far. At this stage in the HUI, at least where I have it plotted, I feel the chances good that is what we have going on here. Just a little additional info I left out before. Re the gold fut plot, once again: ttrader.com if the count I have shown is correct, the 4 can not go below the top of the 1, per rules. Otherwise the count is invalid, and such is normally confirmed later in time. I find this particular rule violation to be most common, and it usually means the count one has done is incorrect. It comes up most on st wavelet counts, and if I work at it hard enough, the violation usually leads me to a better more correct count. If you take all this into consideration, the HUI chart possibility I came up with makes a little sense, in the near term. It makes sense because gold does not appear to have any extremely significant corrections, near term, which in turn should translate to mild, sideways to up corrections for the HUI NT. Some individual equities I follow seem to indicate similar things. But ..... there are other possibilites, much less bullish. If the pm and gold market want to really do a dirty on us, I wonder if it might just be chinese water torture sell off, slow over time. Why? Most bulls would just dig in. A sharp drop would probably concern me less, because I tend to think it would indicate a short correction.

To: jrhana who wrote (34118)	12/3/2003 5:00:02 PM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

This has been a liquidity driven rise in stocks and now that gold is on the front page the gold stocks as well. They are talking about gold everyday on CNBS now. Notice today how many gold stocks were up, not many. Gold Stocks lead the gold price, when they stop performing Gold the metal may continue for a while but this is a pattern I have seen over and over. I still see 415ish gold short term and a pullback to 390's after. From there gold may push higher. The risk reward is not there for me now. The Gold majors are parabolic. The juniors have mostly gone too far but there is some value still but dificult to find. The explorers, I wont even waste my time on. The public is in, I'm out for now not wiling to give up near 400% 2 year gains when panic selling starts. Gold is prety much on its upper trendline here also. Sure it can break out but I'm a trader and will trade. I'm not bearish on gold just happy with selling at the current valuations. Sold 2 gold mutual funds today which have come close to doubling in 6 months. They have been going straght up without pause since July. I will use use any strenght in gold shares to sell the rest of my juniors now except for a few that I feel are special situations. Months ago I would have said that a market selloff would spare the golds but now they are tracking higher together with an overbought market so why wouldnt they selloff? Used to be the golds went up when stock market was down and vise versa this has not been the case recently.