Cowboys dance with the Farmer's Daughter,
Farmers dance with the Rancher's gal!
Oklahoma proves puzzle to Democrats
Earlier primary boosts state's role, challenges hopefuls
By Patrick Healy, Boston Globe Staff, 12/4/2003
OKLAHOMA CITY -- With no campaign cash for posters, yard signs, or lapel buttons, Oklahoma's die-hard volunteers for presidential candidate Wesley K. Clark were using cocktail napkins to scribble down ideas for future bumper stickers.
"These are my best," says R.L. Hilbun, offering "Nominate Dean, Reelect Bush" and "Bush / Orwell '04," among others.
Hilbun, a petroleum engineer and self-described "unsuccessful Vietnam draft dodger," is a veteran Clark booster in Oklahoma City. "The Clark campaign needs to get serious about Oklahoma," he says. "This is Clark country. But they aren't spending the time or money to win here."
Oklahoma is a new prize in the Democratic nominating process, after moving up its primary to Feb. 3 -- just a week after New Hampshire's -- yet it is proving an unusually difficult state for the presidential contenders to figure out. Unlike Iowa or New Hampshire, no one knows which issue will fire up Democratic voters the most (jobs? homeland security?), what voter turnout will be (strong in the cities? poor in bad weather?), or whether tools like bumper stickers would help. What is clear, however, are the stakes -- Clark and Senators Joseph I. Lieberman and John Edwards are treating Oklahoma as a must-win state, hoping it will rekindle their candidacies if they are on the ropes after the Granite State primary.
Lieberman, Edwards, former Vermont governor Howard Dean, and Representative Richard A. Gephardt are expected to spend at least $100,000 apiece, and perhaps tens of thousands of dollars more, to win Oklahoma, campaign advisers say. Clark will start spending at the same rate this month. Yet privately, advisers to these campaigns acknowledge that they are flying blind, without any conventional wisdom of where and how to spend the money.
"Anyone who thinks they know how to win here is nuts," said Jay Parmley, chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party. "Politicians have spent years mastering how to win New Hampshire's primary because it's been important for so long. Now they have to master Oklahoma, but they're learning as they go."
As a political creature, Oklahoma could be diagnosed with multiple personality disorder: amid a history of populism, a staunch Democratic past, and a strong union presence, in recent years it has also lurched to the right, delivering about 60 percent of its 2000 presidential vote to then-Governor Bush of neighboring Texas. In 2002, however, a few key political posts flipped from GOP to Democratic control, including the governorship. As of January 2003, there were 1.1 million registered Democrats, 758,000 Republicans, and 215,000 independents.
In left-leaning Tulsa, to the east, Democrats say their concerns center on the heavy job losses in the energy and oil industries, according to political analysts. In Oklahoma City, dead center in the state, Democrats tend to be more conservative. Many are worried not only about jobs but also about homeland security, given that this capital city was the target of Timothy McVeigh's devastating bombing of the Murrah federal building in 1995, which took place two blocks away from Lieberman's current campaign office.
Clark's Oklahoma effort has been the oddest among leading Democrats. Grass-roots support for Clark intensified this fall, and the general from Arkansas, a next-door "native son," indicated he would compete aggressively in Oklahoma. Through the fall, the greatest campaign activity was visible at volunteer meetings. Only last week did the campaign hire a state director -- a former Iowa aide to Senator Bob Graham's failed presidential bid -- and move to open its first offices this week in Oklahoma City and Tulsa. On Saturday, Clark drew a few hundred people to a forum in the capital on his second visit to Oklahoma since entering the race in mid-September. Several Clark volunteers say they feel the campaign headquarters has acted strangely in plotting Oklahoma strategy. A few weeks ago, Hilbun and another Clark booster spent two hours touting Clark to a Globe reporter, and then extended an invitation to attend a volunteer meeting. A few hours later, a campaign spokeswoman in Little Rock told the reporter that the two volunteers "knew nothing about General Clark," and nixed the invitation.
"Clark's campaign is clearly the most disorganized in Oklahoma, which is the most bizarre thing -- if he spent more money and time here, he could win," said Parmley, the state party chair, noting Clark's appeal as a military leader and moderate Democrat.
Jason McIntosh, an adviser to the Clark campaign, declined to comment directly on Parmley's criticism, but noted that the most recent poll of Oklahoma voters -- by the Tulsa World in late September -- found that Clark was the top choice of Democratic voters asked who would do the best job as president.
"The support for General Clark in Oklahoma is as strong as horseradish," McIntosh said.
Clark, Lieberman, Gephardt, and Edwards are vying for the centrist vote; Gephardt and Dean are competing for union support; and Dean appears to have a lock on most Oklahoma liberals, Democratic analysts say. Those five candidates, along with Representative Dennis J. Kucinich, have campaign offices and paid staffs of one to four members in the state. Edwards is widely believed to have been to Oklahoma the most, about 10 times this year, focusing his campaign on rural areas in eastern Oklahoma. By contrast, Senator John F. Kerry, whose advisers say he plans to compete in the state, "shows little sign of having a strategy here," Parmley said.
Each candidate is playing to his perceived strengths. Gephardt, who is from neighboring Missouri, is hoping that will give him some advantage, although he has been pouring more time and resources into winning the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. Clark's campaign has begun running biographical television ads. Several analysts predicted that Dean could win Oklahoma if his rivals split the moderate vote. If not, any of the candidates could win by emphasizing the need for more jobs, a better education system, and a strong national defense -- with a dash of charisma thrown in. That said, even some campaign advisers acknowledge, it's anyone's game. Patrick Healy can be reached at phealy@globe.com.
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