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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12677)	12/4/2003 12:47:23 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95541

From my lousy short term memory, back in October, the stock was pushed down from $10.50 to $9-$9.25 range in a couple of days and then pretty much sat there for 3 or 4 days before it very quickly ran up into the high $9s. It didn't stay there long, as I expect the MMs were dumping their stock and shorting. I would expect a similar reaction but there's no certainty that we see the same reaction. The stock is a falling knife at the moment and this may add more short sharks to the water. Earnings won't be announced until early February, which could be a long wait. I expect to see a 10%+ pop sometime in the next week, where I would trim some of my purchases but I'm more then willing to wait until February, since I think there's more to the company then today's buying opp. Keep in mind that less then 10 days ago the stock traded above $9/share and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if it found it's way back near there by the end of the month. These kind of moves in a fairly illiquid stock are difficult to predict. Right now the weak hands have to be trembling. However, there are plenty of buyers who bought at the $6 level who can ride out these gyrations. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a few more big blocks get traded today or in the next few days. I have to keep in mind that this is a perfect place for the market makers to reload their coffers, assuming they've been selling all the way down from $11.50. The longer they keep it down here, the more they'll make on the next run. The more weak hands they can get to leave the ship at the wrong time, the better. Emotions are probably running very high, the perfect time to "scalp the weak".