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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Doyle who wrote (34147)	12/4/2003 7:19:25 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

DROOY LT (very) = 24 Dollars

To: John Doyle who wrote (34147)	12/5/2003 12:07:07 AM
From: CuriousGeorge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Today's Trotsky medley ... Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 23:10 bw (trotsky (we're in a deflationary era - and the only way it can be turned into an inflationary one is) ID#118162: Copyright © 2002 bw/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved to literally drop the money from helicopters." Do you hear a whoop, whoop? I do. We may get your helicopters yet. I must admit my strongest argument for inflation is my gut feeling we are going to see things like the dollar first class stamp. Suppose gold were to go to say six hundred next year. OPEC may then put the floor under oil at say fourty bucks a barrel. This alone will provide a good goose to inflation. We also have the multi-trillions in green us$s out there offshore. This currency MUST return if it is not to be lost to its current holders. As for the 35 trillion in debt you mention we saw last month what may be the future. About 70 billion in US assets were taken out of this country ( instead of the 1.5 billion per day inflow required by our trade deficit ) . How did much of this debt leave? In M2 fresh off the presses of good ole Alan G. Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 20:13 trotsky (kapex) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved we're in a deflationary era - and the only way it can be turned into an inflationary one is to literally drop the money from helicopters. as the system is constituted now, money has to be BORROWED into existence. but we already have the biggest private and public debt mountain in mankind's history, so who is left to borrow? bank assets are currently shrinking in fact. Japan remains instructive...the BoJ has tried just about everything that can be tried with traditional methods. the banks simply went and bought JGB's since no-one was able or willing to borrow aside from the government. the government for its part simply wasted the money on the famous bridges to nowhere. you might say, well, then they're going to change their m.o. and the helicopters will really come into play. but i don't believe that, since a CB won't print itself out of power - it has no more power if its currency becomes totally worthless. that said, the US has of course a special problem insofar as lots of dollars are abroad and busy coming back. presumably a full-fledged dollar crisis could produce an inflationary shock in the US, but it would then proceed to export deflation to the rest of the world. and we already have China doing the same, and soon India as well. don't let commodity prices fool you - they're not important in the bigger scheme of things, which is defined by the $35 trillion debt pile. it will take very little to push us over the edge into outright CPI deflation imo...a housing bust would do it for instance. and i think that bust is coming. price inflation requires a wage/price spiral...and none is in sight, not even remotely. the price rises in 'necessities' will imo eventually also reverse...presumably once certain thresholds in asset price deflation, unemployment, etc. are breached. the US is burdened with a mountain of debt, and a worryingly large percentage of idle resources. these are heavily deflationary factors, the price booms in certain subsectors notwithstanding. it is the aggregate that counts in the end. Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 18:51 trotsky (frustrated@CRCUF) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved remember when i said that GSS ( then GSR ) is a $5 stock masquerading as a $1.50 stock? i think similar thoughts on CRCUF. it's an excellent play on an already large & expanding reserves&resources base, it has strong hand shareholders ( ABX & KGC ) and it has a great news flow coming up over the next few months as drilling progresses. always provided the PoG cooperates, this one could go GRZ or NDMLF on us, to stay with the porphyry theme. one big advantage of Benzdorp: it is mostly a gold system, with excellent gold values for this type of deposit. in terms of economic feasibility, it compares favorably with many a heavy hitter already in production. frankly, i'm not sure why the stock has been so sedate of late...but i'm pretty sure it won't stay that way. Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 15:54 trotsky (frustrated@Rand) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved don't underestimate the persistence of long term currency trends...like i said yesterday, the Yen's up-trend persists since early last century...the D-mark's since its introduction post WW2. the Rand's 25 year old down-trend is young as currencies go. intermediate term i would have to agree that 8 would look, let's say, achievable. now that would be great...the difference this would make for SA mining margins can hardly be overstated. Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 14:23 trotsky (JD@DROOY) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved re. 'what's the fascination with DROOY' - you mean you don't know?? one word: leverage. we seem to have forgotten quickly that during the period of Rand weakness '01-'02, DROOY was by far the best performing gold stock on the JSE...as well as among the top 3 worldwide. so it all depends on the Rand...there's no better put option on the Rand available. aside from that, with 260K. oz. of production now sourced from the PacRim area, DROOY might well begin to surprise positively ( i know, it's been said before... ) . in any case, those R. 200m. in overseas cash flows sure mitigate the Rand problem somewhat. Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 14:08 trotsky (Apollo, 12:16) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i agree, it is the metal itself that simply looks extremely convincing chart-wise. this chart practically begs for a spike higher. this expected spike, if/when it occurs will likely provide the oppty. to take profits. in this context, the juniors tend to have the bulk of their gains compacted in a relatively short period ( weeks ) toward the end of intermediate term moves. iow, the obviously most risky period of the move is also where the most hay is made further down the food chain. i also like the dollar idea...short term decoupling isn't unheard of and i have 1.22 also as a possible ST target for the euro...always keeping in mind that no-one knows for sure when the dollar might go into crisis mode. it will happen ONE day imo. an unexpected trigger lies in wait... Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 13:32 trotsky (frustrated, 12:10) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved so far, GFI, HMY, BGO, AGT & KRY. bought some CRCUF, CGLD & MAGR also very recently, but not today. PDG & HL are still on my 'to do' list...would have liked bigger dips in them, but no luck so far. a word on the speculative stuff: MAGR is imo pure speculation, but it's such a cheap stock that the downside is rather limited. CRCUF 'deserves' a much higher valuation when compared to its gold-copper porphyry peers, and it has a 1.3m. oz. high grade property in addition to the Benzdorp porphyry. CGLD is about to get $13.8m. from RGLD for mine construction in exchange for a royalty. that's nearly 30 cents per share, so it's hard to see hat could go wrong at the current price. im giving the South Africans another chance on the idea that current Rand levels are simply unsustainable. Date: Thu Dec 04 2003 10:35 trotsky (hambone @ SA mines) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the marginal producers can either high-grade or close down...it's as simple as that. the best solution would of course be to put those mines on care and maintenance...but that's not politically feasible i fear.