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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (18706)12/5/2003 2:56:49 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793618
 
Not even election year, and Kerry is already out of it. Who would have thunk it?



Job One For Kerry: Rebound In N.H.
Dean Far Ahead in Former Stronghold

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 5, 2003; Page A01

MANCHESTER, N.H., Dec. 4 -- If John F. Kerry was looking for a sign that he has turned around his struggling presidential campaign, he got the opposite in New Hampshire on Thursday. Two new polls charted the erosion of his support in a state where the Massachusetts senator was once the heavy favorite.

Both polls showed Kerry falling even further behind former Vermont governor Howard Dean and in danger of being overtaken for second place by retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and they lent urgency to his efforts to revitalize a campaign that has been sputtering through much of the fall.

The new numbers, which came in surveys by Zogby International and the American Research Group, showed Kerry roughly 30 percentage points behind Dean, after starting the year well ahead of the field of Democrats here. Zogby put Dean at 42 percent and Kerry at 12 percent. The ARG poll showed Dean at 45 percent, Kerry 13. Clark ran third in both, a few percentage points behind Kerry, with Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) fourth.

The findings underscore Kerry's precarious standing here, where the primary will be held Jan. 27, and point to why his campaign has redoubled efforts in Iowa, where, ironically he appears to be in stronger shape. His advisers believe he can challenge Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) to a dead heat in the Jan. 19 caucuses.

Polls in Iowa paint a conflicting picture: In several surveys Kerry is challenging for second place; in another one this week, he was a distant third. Kerry has a well-regarded team in Iowa and recently drafted Michael Whouley, who ran Al Gore's national ground operation four years ago, to oversee the operation.

Even before the latest numbers in New Hampshire, Kerry said he recognized that time was of the essence. "I need to campaign like a bandit over the course of the next weeks and make sure people are clear about my candidacy," he said, "and I intend to make them clear."

Campaign officials played down the latest New Hampshire polls, saying the campaign is moving forward, but none offered evidence that Kerry has begun to gain ground on Dean in the state. "Clearly we've got some ground to make up, and we've got eight weeks to do it and we have the resources, a great team and a candidate who's determined to win to make up that ground," said campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter.

Aboard his campaign bus earlier this week, Kerry offered several reasons for the state of his campaign, particularly in New Hampshire, saying the biggest problem is that he has been overshadowed by heavy publicity given to Dean and Clark and to the California recall.

"We got crowded out by the other events," he said. "Very simple. Crowded out by first the Internet and Dean and the war, and then crowded out by Arnold Schwarzenegger, and then crowded out by the new face on the block [Clark]. Now's the time for people to focus and say who can be president."

He acknowledges that Dean's opposition to the war helped coalesce the antiwar constituency within the party, but there is also the matter of his own position on Iraq. He supported the resolution authorizing President Bush to go to war, which caused dismay among many longtime Kerry friends and supporters, but before and after the vote offered sharp criticism of Bush's foreign policy.

What he must now do, Kerry said, is "make sure people understand that I have the qualities of leadership to get us out of this problem, that everything that happened I foresaw [and] warned the president about -- in fact that my position was 100 percent consistent from day one and unequivocating."

Kerry critics, and even some supporters, say that an equally serious problem has been the absence of a clear and compelling message from the candidate, despite his impressive biography and experience. To remedy that, Kerry has begun delivering speeches outlining what he would do in his first 100 days as president and, in doing so, push voters to draw their own contrasts between his and Dean's experience, particularly in the area of national security.

"Think about it," he said in an interview this week. "You're going to build a house. You're not going to hire a contractor who's never built a house. . . . Well, a huge part of the job of being president is head of state, therefore chief diplomat and also commander in chief. Why would we not want to hire somebody who actually has the experience, has the leadership, proven skill and ability to do what you need to do in that job?"

As he campaigned in Iowa, some of those in the audience shared those concerns about Dean. "I don't think his message is going to carry a majority of the country," said Stanley Watkins, a retired college professor. "I think Kerry is a solid person." Asked how he thought Kerry was doing in Iowa, Watkins replied, "I don't think real well. I don't know why."

Justin Shields, who heads the Hawkeye Labor Council in Cedar Rapids and is a Kerry supporter, said he believes undecided Democrats will turn toward Kerry once they set aside their anger over Bush's Iraq policies and focus on who is electable. But he, too, said Kerry must shoulder some of the responsibility to force that change. "He can't assume that people believe he's the best candidate."

By opting out of public financing, Kerry now can match Dean and outspend Gephardt in Iowa. He has pressed Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) for an endorsement, so far to no avail.

Kerry attracted sizable and attentive crowds in Iowa, and on the campaign trail he was energetic and determined. His stump speech, built around heavy criticism of Bush, includes descriptions of what he would do to create more jobs, expand access to health care, fight corporate corruption, combat the power of special interests and, particularly, guide the United States in an era of terrorism.

A month ago, Kerry appeared ready to draw those distinctions with Dean and was poised to launch a series of attacks. He continues to challenge Dean in debates, but on the stump and in an interview he was reluctant to criticize his rival. "I don't want to take my campaign there," he said. "I want my campaign to be positive. I want to express my vision for the country, and I want to express what I want to do."

Former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), Kerry's most prominent supporter in the state, said Kerry must focus on an affirmative message. "When [voters] look at what people are proposing and the leadership they can provide, that's where John Kerry has the edge. We have to make sure people know what he's proposing and get that out and that's what we're working hard to do."

Nor does Kerry want to talk about the staff changes he instituted a month ago, dismissing longtime adviser Jim Jordan and replacing him with Mary Beth Cahill. "I wanted to change the dynamic, and I think I did," he said, adding: "It liberated me to not worry about what is happening and just go forward and campaign."

Kerry said his mission is to do what he has not done so far: let voters know who he is. "Nobody knows who my campaign manager is, nobody cares," he said as his bus neared his next event. "They want to know, is John Kerry capable of leading this nation where we need to go, and I am, and I'm going to prove it over the course of these next weeks."

Shaheen, who has experience working for presidential candidates who have come from far back to win in New Hampshire, said there is still time for Kerry to do the same, although she has never been part of a campaign that saw its lead disappear as Kerry's has.

The candidate said he believes he is stronger now in Iowa than in New Hampshire but predicted a turnaround before late January. "I don't think I've yet been able to communicate as much there as I have" in Iowa, he said. "I will be over the next weeks. I'm very confident about my ability to move New Hampshire. I intend to win New Hampshire."

washingtonpost.com



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (18706)12/5/2003 2:59:31 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793618
 
Saw this ad on one of the cable shows. Very effective.



washingtonpost.com
Conservative Group Runs Ad Against Dean

By Liz Sidoti
The Associated Press
Thursday, December 4, 2003; 3:51 PM

A conservative political group launched an ad in New Hampshire and Iowa Thursday, arguing that Democrat Howard Dean would raise taxes and comparing the front-runner to losing presidential candidates George McGovern and Michael Dukakis.

The Dean campaign immediately responded to the Club for Growth's commercial, saying it would broadcast its own ad Friday countering the criticism. The Dean spot to air in the early voting states accuses President Bush of "hiding behind negative attacks" from Republican groups.

The Club for Growth commercial compares the former Vermont governor to McGovern, Dukakis and Walter Mondale, three unsuccessful Democratic nominees whom the group argues supported "huge tax increases."

"Howard Dean says he'll raise taxes on the average family by more than $1,900 a year. Dean says he'll raise income taxes, marriage taxes, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, even bring back the death tax," an announcer says. "Will Howard Dean ever learn?"

The ad will run for at least two weeks in Des Moines, Iowa, and Manchester, N.H., at a cost of about $100,000.

"Dean has been the most vocal on this issue. He's become the symbol of the anti-Bush tax cut movement in the Democratic Party," said Stephen Moore, president of Club for Growth, which was founded in 1999 to help elect fiscal conservatives. "He's just going to get absolutely crucified on this issue."

Dean has called for rolling back all of President Bush's tax cuts and using the money to provide health care and to relieve the pressure on state and local taxes. Dean has not indicated he would raise taxes beyond their previous levels, but Americans undoubtedly would see their taxes increased if all Bush's cuts are repealed.

Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi called the ad "absolutely wrong" and a "bald-faced lie" because it characterizes Dean as a tax-and-spend Democrat.

"It's starting to look pretty clear that they've become increasingly concerned by the grass-roots movement we have created," Trippi said in a conference call with reporters.

He argued that Dean is seeking fiscal responsibility, and repeal of the tax cuts is necessary because they "threaten this country's economic well-being."

Dean is the only candidate mentioned in the ad. Among the major candidates, rival Dick Gephardt also favors repealing all of Bush's tax cuts, while reintroducing some later. Wesley Clark, John Edwards, John Kerry and Joe Lieberman want to roll back the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

Also Thursday, Gephardt began airing his first television ad in South Carolina, using a 30-second biographical commercial that has run in Iowa and New Hampshire. The campaign is spending about $70,000 to air the ad through Wednesday. He has been using radio ads for more than a month in South Carolina, which has the first-in-the-South presidential primary Feb. 3.

Iowa holds its caucuses Jan. 19 and New Hampshire's primary is Jan. 27.

A study released Thursday by the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin-Madison found that Democratic presidential candidates have run more than three times as many spots in Iowa than they have in New Hampshire media markets.

The analysis found that the Democrats have spent $3.8 million so far on advertising in markets that reach Iowans compared to about $1.8 million in markets that broadcast into New Hampshire.
washingtonpost.com



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (18706)12/5/2003 3:06:49 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793618
 
In a Gasthaus a day before I returned to the States, he asked me, "How do you do it?" How does America continue to succeed and we Arabs fail?" My reply: "You must first off your autocrats."

Nuggets of trust
By Austin Bay
Published December 5, 2003

In a righteous world, John Burns of the New York Times would win the Pulitzer Prize in perpetuity. Gifted reporters like Mr. Burns revive faith in the craft of ink-stained wretches. His genius for providing the apt cultural and psychological contexts shaping his immediate subject matter means a Burns story is both a nugget of current topical insight and the grist of future history.
He's also one persistent and canny pro with a knack for getting what I call "the second day answers" in a single interview. The story spurring this column, "A conversation on tiptoes, wary of mines" (New York Times, Nov. 30), is a lesson in journalistic probing supported by personal integrity and a superior knowledge of the facts.
Mr. Burns interviewed three men in Amiriya, Iraq, a Sunni town outside Baghdad. Mr. Burns noted, "If any village in Iraq should be Saddam country," it's Amiriya.
Mr. Burns, however, opened his report with a reminder of a much more pertinent "locale," the lingering hell created by decades of Saddamite terror. The Iraqis' human walls of careful habits built to survive Ba'athist oppression are barriers to any genuine political conversation.
"Knowing what ordinary Iraqis thought was never easy for Western reporters when Saddam Hussein bestrode the land," Mr. Burns began. "Now his secret police and information ministry minders are gone, but not Mr. Hussein himself. So his terror still radiates among Iraqis, many of whom condition their words and actions against the possibility he may return."
The Amiriyis kicked off with praise for Saddam and diss for America. Saddam was "our king" and will toss the Americans out, etc.
So Mr. Burns asked the men if mass graves containing Saddam's Iraqi victims are American lies.
This to-the-gut question told the men Mr. Burns knew the deadly price of honesty under Saddam and didn't buy their bombast.
The chance to confront the bones challenged, then eroded ingrained fear. The Amiriya Three, after speaking "softly to each other," admitted Saddam was a brute and disaster for Iraq.
Sure, the men continued to rant a bit, but raw truths like these emerged: "Let us be honest here. Whatever we may say to foreigners like you, the truth is that we were never really with Saddam; in our hearts we were always against him." Or, "We will never have peace as long as we must fear Saddam."
Mr. Burns concluded with this quote: " ... tell the Americans to find us jobs, then everything will begin to improve."
Nuggets? The shift in the interview from defensive propaganda to honest admission is another signal that a mental reconstruction is under way in Iraq, and the Iraqi people are not only aware of their savaged state but know they bear a responsibility for the future. They have to defeat fear. Another: Getting Saddam, the brute himself, is the central U.S. security objective.
This particular Burns masterpiece has a telling echo for me. "Second-day answers" are the replies a writer gets once trust is established and -- or your interviewee knows you can't be totally duped. With Samir -- call him a Syrian intellectual -- it took me two months to reach the second day.
Samir wasn't an assignment but a fellow student in Germany in the early 1980s. Our first "conversations" consisted of Samir launching anti-American diatribes spiced with Soviet propaganda. Having heard the script before, I peeled (in German with a Texas accent) Syria's Assad regime, calling it a fascist contraption ready to shatter into a dozen vicious Lebanons. While knowledge of Syria's reality impressed him, the morning he wandered in while I was playing the piano changed our personal dynamic. He loved music. We discovered both of us preferred tea to coffee.
In a Gasthaus a day before I returned to the States, he asked me, "How do you do it?" How does America continue to succeed and we Arabs fail?" My reply: "You must first off your autocrats."
"But we cannot do that," Samir said, a sad fear jeweling his eyes.
"Then you will continue your long misery," I replied.
John Burns' story indicates there is now an Arab nation with a chance to escape the autocrats' terrifying grip.

Austin Bay is a nationally syndicated columnist.



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (18706)12/5/2003 4:14:25 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793618
 
New Republic

IS CLARK A THREAT TO DEAN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?: We were about to post an item saying we didn't know quite what to make of the latest Zogby poll showing Howard Dean up 30 points on John Kerry in New Hampshire. On the one hand, it does appear that Dean is surging and Kerry is fading--both across the country and in New Hampshire. (A recent poll showed Dean up 9 points on Kerry in Massachusetts, Kerry's home turf.) On the other hand, Zogby's polls have at times been wildly off-base, as Josh Marshall catalogued in this Slate piece in 2000.
Then came today's American Research Group poll showing pretty much the same result, and we started to suspect there was something big going on here. Dean had the support of 45 percent of the voters surveyed by ARG, compared with Kerry's 13. Worse for Kerry, Wesley Clark was only 2 points back, well within the poll's margin of error.

As Mickey Kaus suggests, the real story here may be that Dean has dispatched of Kerry too soon. If present trends continue, Clark will be alone in second place in New Hampshire by the end of the year. Add to that the possibility, which we pointed out yesterday, that Clark could actually surpass Dean in fundraising this quarter, and it's not a huge stretch to think Clark could be within striking distance of Dean come mid-January.

That said, a couple of caveats are in order: First, as we've noted before, Dean's supporters tend to be incredibly loyal, and the intensity of their support incredibly high. That means Dean is unlikely to suffer many defections between now and primary day--to Clark or anyone else. If Dean really does have the 45 percent support the ARG poll suggests, this could be a done deal. (On the other hand, if you keep adding supporters, at some point you're adding people who are less committed, otherwise they'd have been with you from the beginning.)

Second, the movement between candidates is important. The only numbers that really changed between this month's ARG poll and last month's were Dean's, Clark's, Kerry's, and the number of undecideds. (All of the other candidates saw basically zero movement.) Dean was up 7 points from month to month, Clark was up 4, Kerry was down 4, and the undecideds were down 6. The key question is whether Dean was picking up Kerry supporters or undecideds (or both). If it's the former, then Clark would appear to have no chance. That's because many of the remaining undecideds are probably the kind of people who sit on the fence right up until Election Day, at which point they throw their support behind the expected winner. Kerry supporters, on the other hand, may be in the process of deserting him en masse; they're up for grabs even as we write. If those supporters are going to Dean, or even if Dean and Clark are splitting them, Clark is unlikely to make up the ground he needs to make up. (Even if Clark got all of Kerry's 13 percent, he'd still have a lot of catching up to do. But he'd at least have a chance at winning over those undecdeds down the stretch.)

Finally, if Clark's upward movement continues, it will dramatically heighten the importance of Iowa. That is, even if Clark gains ground in New Hampshire at a fantastic clip between now and mid-January--say he closes Dean's lead to 10 points--the momentum Dean would get from an Iowa victory would probably make the surge moot.

Of course, the opposite may also be true: If Clark continues to climb in New Hampshire and gets a nice bounce from his fundraising, a Dean loss in Iowa could put Clark over the top.

tnr.com



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (18706)12/5/2003 5:55:49 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793618
 
History Has No End

By VICTOR DAVIS HANSON Mr. Hanson teaches classics at California State University at Fresno and is a contributing editor of City Journal, from whose latest issue this is adapted. NY Sun

Writing as the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Francis Fukuyama famously announced the “End of History.” The world, he argued, was fast approaching the final stage of its political evolution. Western democratic capitalism had proved itself superior to its historical rivals and would find acceptance.

Here were the communist regimes dropping into the dustbin of history while dictatorships and statist economies in Asia and South America were toppling. A new worldwide consumer class was evolving, leaving behind such retrograde notions as nationhood and national honor. As a result, war would grow rare or vanish.

Gone, or going fast, was the old stuff of history — the often larger-than-life men who sorted out on the battlefield the conflicts of traditions and values that once divided nations. And Mr. Fukuyama acknowledged that the End of History would have a downside as sophisticated consumers became lotus-eaters, hooked on channel surfing and material comforts.

How naive all this sounds today.The looming threat of terrorism has shown that a global embrace of modern democracy is a distant hope. Equally striking, it’s not just the West and the non-democratic world that are diverging; the West itself is pulling apart. Differences between America and Europe about how citizens should live are growing.

A Fukuyaman might counter that terrorism is a bump on the road to universal democracy, prosperity, and peace.Whether certain Middle Eastern terrorist regimes know it,this argument would run, the budding spiritual and material desires of the masses for all things Western eventually will make them more like us.

In fact, rather than bringing us all together, as Mr. Fukuyama predicted, the spread of English as the global lingua franca, of accessible, inexpensive high technology, and of universal fashion and communication has led to chaos as often as calm. And these developments have incited envy, resentment, and anger among traditional societies.

The new technologies, despite Mr. Fukuyama, do not make liberal democrats out of our enemies but simply allow them to do their destructive work more effectively. Even though globalization’s malcontents profess hatred for capitalist democracy, they use the West’s technology against us.

Where is the proof that freedom must follow in the train of affluence, as Fukuyama holds? And where is the evidence that consumers will become comfort-loving pacifists? America, too, seems as subject to history as ever. Abandoning the belief that we can check dictators with words and bribes, we’re returning to military activism.

As for Europe, surely we can see Fukuyama’s post-historical future shaping up, in an increasingly hedonistic life-style that puts pleasure ahead of national pride or convictions. Europeans say that reflection on their checkered past has taught them to reject wars, to mediate, not deter, and to trust in Enlightenment rationality instead of primitive emotions surrounding God, family, and country. Look closer, though, and you’ll discover the pulse of history beating beneath Europe’s postmodern surface.

During the Cold War,the threat of the Soviet Union kept in check the rivalries of Europe’s old nations. With the Evil Empire’s collapse, the European nations’ age-old drive for status,influence, and power slowly started to reassert itself, increasing tensions.

Europe’s resurgent political ambitions and passions are even more apparent in its relations with America, which hardly squares with the End-of-History model, even though the Europeans were making post-historical complaints that America was acting like the Lone Ranger and even though the European position was that international diplomacy could eventually handle the Iraq problem.

In fact, the European opposition to America over Iraq and the fuss the European nations made about international organizations and diplomacy had more to do with realpolitik — the desire to answer American influence and champion their own power — than they did with belief in the obsolescence of

national identity or military force.

The dustup between the Old Europeans and America over Iraq only widened a trans-Atlantic rift, the product of historical, cultural, and political differences between Europe and America. Resentment of us runs deep.This is a residue of World War II. No good deed goes unpunished.

What’s more, European animosity toward America has a snobbish component — an anti-bourgeois disdain that is the legacy of Europe’s socialist left and ancien-régime right.Criticisms of America often start out on the left — we’re too hegemonic and don’t care about poor countries — then veer to the aristocratic right: We’re a motley sort, promoting vulgar food and mass entertainment.

Our old-fashioned belief in right and wrong also infuriates the Europeans. Americans have an ingrained distrust of moral laxity masquerading as “sophistication,” and our dissident religious heritage has made us comfortable with making clear-cut moral choices in politics — “simplistic” choices, Euros would say.

It is precisely because we recognize the existence of evil, pure and simple, that we feel justified in using force to strip power from ogres. Europeans, cynical in politics and morals, think that this attitude makes us loose cannons.

Paradoxically, the most consequential reason Continental Europe and America are pulling apart is the European Union itself.European visionaries have had a long history of dreaming up and seeking to implement with murderous efficiency nationalist or socialist utopias.The European Union,benign as it currently seems, is the latest manifestation of this minatory utopian spirit.

The E.U.’s greatest hubris is to imagine that it can overcome the historical allegiances and political cultures of Europe’s many nations by creating a “European” man, freed from local attachments and resentments, conflicting interests, ethnicity, and differing visions of the good life, while wedded to rationality, egalitarianism, secularism, and the enlightened rule of bureaucrats.

All that makes this squaring of the circle plausible is Europe’s choice to spend little on defense, which allows more money for social services — a choice itself resting on the utopian assumption that the world has entered an era in which national disagreements can be resolved peacefully through international organizations — above all, the United Nations. Unfortunately, like Europe’s bygone brave new worlds, the E.U. is deeply anti-democratic and used by elites to grab power while mouthing platitudes about “brotherhood.”

As for America, the E.U. is so contemptuous that anti-Americanism often seems to be its founding principle. Nothing is more foreign to statist utopian fantasies than the American emphasis on individual liberty, local self-government, equality under the law, and slow, imperfect reform.

The skeptical Founding Fathers, influenced by the British Enlightenment, built a republic based on the anti-utopian belief that men are fallible and selfinterested, love their property, and can best manage their affairs locally.

The Founders saw the café theorizing of Continental elites and French philosophers as a danger to good government, which requires institutional checks and balances and a citizenry of perennially vigilant individual citizens. From America’s beginnings, that spirit of rugged individualism and self-reliance found a home here and stands opposed to collectivism.

The resulting split between America and Europe is of seismic importance. Though the European Union may offer superficial relief, in light of the Continent’s bloody history, it constitutes a potential long-term threat to America and the world.

To the extent that the E.U. succeeds in forging a common European identity, anti-Americanism will likely be its lodestar. Of course, it will fail, because for most people being a European could never be as meaningful as being a Frenchman or a German. And even in failure, the project could be catastrophic: By denigrating a healthy natural sense of nationhood, the E.U. risks unleashing a militaristic chauvinism. Behind the pretense that a dash of multinationalism and pacifist platitudes have transformed Europe into an Endof-History society, it is still mostly the Continent of old,torn by envy and pride and conjuring up utopian fantasies of pan-European rule while nationalist resentments fester.That’s what makes the question of European re-armament so crucial. Should Europe rearm, it could field forces as strong as our own. If the Europeans insist on empowering unaccountable international organizations such as the U.N., we should at least try to make them more accountable and harder to use as masks for power-political ends. America seeks neither a hostile nor a subservient Europe, but one of confident democratic allies such as the U.K. The U.N. has never truly prevented or concluded a war. We stand a better chance of bringing about a bright future if we remember that man’s nature is unchanging — and that, therefore, history never ends.
daily.nysun.com