To: DMaA who wrote (18750 ) 12/5/2003 1:50:18 PM From: LindyBill Respond to of 793706 Beware: Bush hatred is a minority taste December 3, 2003 THE POLLSTERS Mark Mellman Mark S. Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Democrats hate George Bush. No, that’s not graffiti scribbled on a men’s room wall at the Democratic National Committee. That deeply felt anger is shaping the Democratic primary contest. But it is doing so in a way that threatens our party’s ability to appeal to swing voters next year. No one factor accounts for Democrats’ intense animosity. Indeed, almost any reason will do. Some are angry that he stole the election. Others are set off by the war. Still other Democrats find his support for special interests, or his environmental policy, or his tax cuts, or his halting locutions as reasons to detest Bush. The level of animosity Bush arouses in Democrats appears unprecedented. The data are not strictly comparable, but in 1998, 75 percent of Republicans said Bill Clinton made them angry. Bush’s father could arouse the ire of only 64 percent of Democrats. Today, Bush enrages nearly 90 percent of Democrats. This intense anger is reflected in the posture Democrats want to take vis-à-vis Republicans. While the vast majority of Republicans and independents want the two parties to work together to solve problems, Democrats do not. They are spoiling for a fight. Many Democrats feel betrayed by what they see as an accommodationist party. These Democrats do not want compromise, conciliation or cooperation. They want political war. As a result, the Democratic candidates for president have spent months beating Bush about the head and shoulders. At every debate and at every candidate appearance, the president takes a harsh and often personal, though well-deserved, thrashing. This situation presents a simple political problem, however: Democrats are alone in their views. Democrats constitute the minority of Americans who abhor the president; swing independents (and, of course, Republicans) do not. They want presidents and members of Congress who will reach across party lines. They disagree with many of Bush’s policies. They dislike his priorities. They do not approve of many of his actions. They are distraught because he favors special interests over the needs of ordinary citizens. But swing voters do not hate Bush. Many, somehow, actually like him. In response to a Los Angeles Times poll question, 68 percent of independents said they like Bush. A Zogby poll found only 31 percent of Democrats proud to have Bush as president, compared to 51 percent of independents. The Los Angeles Times found that 43 percent of independents thought Bush understood the problems of people like them, compared to just 19 percent of Democrats. In reality, the Democratic base is out of sync with swing voters. The Democrats’ visceral anger with Bush is but the prime example of this disconnect. The war in Iraq is another. By a 42-point margin, Democrats say removing Saddam was not worth the cost, according to a CBS poll. But independents say it was worth the cost, by a 13-point margin. Of course, the Republican base also is out of sync with swing voters on a host of issues — from choice to education to the minimum wage. Presidents, though, can hide the disjunction between the base and the swing. Presidents help create the agenda, dominate the channels of communication and enforce discipline. Our presidential candidates, by contrast, must compete with other Democrats for the party’s base. On policy issues, the problems largely can be evaded. Seemingly incongruous issue positions can be reconciled or emphasized differently. Witness former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s new emphasis on balanced budgets and his National Rifle Association support. But emotions are communicated much more readily and much more clearly than policy positions. Emotions create images from which it is hard to escape. If Democrats offer only anger, we will excite ourselves but swing voters won’t buy in. thehill.com