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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1279)	12/7/2003 3:29:11 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 1617

newsletter from 2 weeks ago.. ============================================================ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED NOVEMBER 23RD 2003 "LET'S GIVE THANKS FOR ALL WE HAVE" Hello everyone hope you and your families are happy and well this upcoming Turkey Week. It seems to me and I'm sure to most of you we sure have a lot to be thankful for during this important holiday season. As traders I doubt it can get much better than the last 9 months my cyberfriends. Let's hope for the final bottom soon and reversal we are looking for to get long..It's coming soon, be patient. The markets are having trouble out there for 2 reasons. First it's all the violence around the world over the last month or so. Second we always pullback during this time frame heading into the next earnings season. While I believe we are not done correcting yet, I feel we are 2-3 weeks away from just that event. There is a mechanism in the markets that we have discovered over the years that is remarkably repeatable. After a great run up for a length of time, the Brokerage Houses tend to re evaluate their "calls" on certain stocks, and most downgrades are of the "valuations" numbers, meaning the prices of the stocks they like are way too high & already hit their upside targets.. Hence bring em' on down so they can regroup and re buy, CHEAPER. I can't think of a better back drop for another sustained rally early next year as the economy and now corporations are beginning to talk about a solid recovery that's somewhere in sight. We have the makings of a large move up soon and we'll be ready for it when it begins. I do not like the deterioration of the Point & Figure Charts for almost all the indicators are retreating from those incredible high numbers on the bullish percents charts on all indexes and stocks and sectors. I want to remind you all that P&F is a technical methodology that follows a Top Down Approach. Meaning we ask ourselves where are the Indexes right now, all the sectors and the stocks within the confines of each sector. What's the RS the Relative Strength of all of the above. What is the sentiment and perception looking like what with all this external trouble out there affecting the markets. We do not buy stocks or trade stocks from a Bottom Up Approach. I can never understand how you can do FA or Fundamental Analysis without knowing the exact picture of the indexes sectors and that particular stock as well. It's my job to keep us focused here to be able to continue to trade the best way we can. As you'll see below we are at critical juncture again here, and these indexes better hold right here or there's going to be more carnage. Obviously we are not investing yet till I feel this pullback is overwith completely. I have seen a lot of intraday selling the last 2 full weeks, it's sure not stealth selling either folks. But what I have NOT seen is capitulation selling on high volume. I would prefer that to happen 2-3 times to wring out all the final sellers from the market altogether. I doubt we see that kind of selling unless an "event" would occur to push us deeply lower very fast. Can this happen?, of course it can, can we trade it?, not a chance. Heck it may never happen. So the quick answer is to be in cash overnight thru the balance of this year, or until we see some big selling soon. The longer this grinds down the bigger the rally will be going forward. Ok let's add 1 more stock to our Buy the stock, write the leap call with a dividend play. RJR just broke thru the Bearish Resistance line nice developing chart here. Pays a 7.30% dividend if you buy it here you would write the Jan 2005 55 calls at about 3.50. So you buy 1000 shares of stock at $52,000 and get paid 7.30% or $3800.00 if you hold for 1 year into Jan 2005, then you sell the Jan 2005 55 leap call for $3500.00 plus the dividend. If it gets taken away you make another $3000.00 at $55,000 as your cost is $52,000. All in all one heck of a trade for those SEP's IRA's 401K's etc..If you have your own stock portfolio then do it in there too. You know the drill, potential is for $10.300 profit for the "best" deal. $7300.00 if it stays the same or under 55. You have 7 points of downside protection if it crashes and burns. You're stop would be 45.00. You would then re do the deal all over again till it pays off. Very very nice folks. Conservative and for anyone with any small tolerance of risk. I ask you all to continue to do your own DD here on everything I suggest. I know this stuff works as I've been doing it for a long long time. Many people cannot get returns like that ever! Look it takes patience thats all. Use hard stops once the stock makes a good move up to protect your initial capital investment, that is KEY! Ok let's check the indexes and move on from there. =============================================================================================== WE ARE HAVING INTERNAL DETERIORATION IN THE TECH SECTOR RIGHT NOW. IT BEGAN 2 WEEKS AGO AND NOW IS FALLING QUICKLY..WE'LL BECOME ULTRA CAUTIOUS IF THE OTC BP TURNS DOWN, THEN WE'LL HAVE 4 INDICATORS ALL IN O'S AND MOVING LOWER. A BIG NEGATIVE FOR ME EVERYONE AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN SOON. DJIA---WE HIT MY 9600 1ST TARGET WHICH IS A PERFECT 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. 9500 IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB). 9400 IS A DB BREAKDOWN. 9900 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP WITH 10k THE BREAKOUT(B/O) NUMBER. THE 38.2% RETRENCHMENT NUMBER IS AT 9550 THATS FROM THE AUG LOW NOV HIGH AND NOV LOW. HANG TIGHT THIS WILL BE SOME RIDE. COMPX---NICE "HAMMER" STICK ON FRIDAY THATS BULLISH. WE ALREADY HAD A PERFECT RETRACE BACK DOWN OF ABOUT 120 NAZ POINTS LIKE THE LAST 2, CAN WE BUY THIS AREA AGAIN? WE NEED TO BOUNCE HERE HARD AND RIGHT NOW! OR IT WILL FAIL. WE ARE JUST .57% AWAY FORM THE OTC REVERSING DOWN INTO O'S. THE 38.2% RETRENCH IS AT 1856.71 AUG LOW TO NOV HIGH, AND THE 61.8% PROJECTION IS AT 1973.79 SEPT LOW NOV HIGH NOV LOW. LET'S WATCH THE COMING BATTLE. NDX---THIS INDEX DID A SOLID 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN ON THE DEFAULT CHART ON P&F USING THE 25 POINT PER BOX SET UP. THATS A LONGER TERM "LOOK" AT THE INDEX..IF WE SPEED IT UP BY CHECKING THE 10 POINT PER BOX CHART IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE WE HIT THE 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN ALMOST TO THE NUMBER! AT 1358.02. THATS THE AUG LOWS TO THE NOV HIGHS. WE HAMMERED ON FRIDAY AND MIGHT MOVE UP RIGHT HERE AND NOW! WE HAVE TO PRINT 1400 TO TAKE OUT THAT LARGE GRAVESTONE DOJI ON LAST THURS. IF WE BREAK 1350 NEXT STOP WOULD BE 1329.00. THE BP NDX IS AT 68% AND HOLDING SO FAR, ANY BREAK OF 64% IS DEATH AND TAXES. SO FAR I'VE NOTICED THAT THE INDU-COMPX-NDX ARE ALL NEAR OR TOUCHING THE MINUS-100 CCI LINE. SO A BOUNCE MAY BE DUE RIGHT HERE.. SOX---A KEY INDEX OF COURSE. THIS INDEX DOUBLE TOPPED(DT AT 530 FAILED TO B/O AND THEN PROMPTLY SOLD OFF BREAKING A DB AT 505. RALLIED BACK UP TO 515 MAKING A LOWER HIGH THEN SOLD OFF AGAIN FOR A SECOND SELL SIGNAL TOUCHING 495 AS CALLED BY ME FRIDAY. NOW ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) IT HAS THE LOOK OF A BULL FLAG WE'LL SEE. 38.2% RETRACE IS AT 470 THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK. THE PROJECTION NUMBER IS AT 545 AUG LOW NOV HIGH NOV LOW. ALL QCHARTS USERS PLEASE PLACE THESE TOOLS INTO USE THEY WORK. THE BP(BULLISH PERCENT) SEMIS IS AT 77.95 STILL OK. 76% IS THE REVERSAL BACK DOWN WITH 74% A REAL PROBLEM FOR THIS INDEX AND THE MARKETS. BTK---STILL ON THE BRINK OF BREAKING DOWN HERE, IT'S IN A REAL DOG FIGHT. A SERIOUS BREAK IS 420 BUT THE BOT OF THE 10 WEEK "AND" THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) ARE BOTH RIGHT THERE. 470 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. THERE WAS A GRAVESTONE DOJI ON THURS WITH A NRB(NARROW RANGE BAR) ON FRIDAY. THE BP BIOM HAS ACTUALLY RETRACED 50% MARCH LOWS TO NOV HIGHS AT 50.59% IS THIS ENOUGH? BKX---HELD A HARD DB AT MID OF THE 10 WEEK AT 920 ANOTHER DOJI THURS ANOTHER NRB FRIDAY. 940 KEEPS IT MOVING UP, 920 THE 3 BOX DOWN. AND REAL TROUBLE. BTW WE TOUCHED THE EXACT 38.2% RETRACE BACK DOWN LAST WEEK..SO WE'LL SEE. SPX---THIS INDEX DID "NOT" REVERSE 3 BOXES LAST WEEK TO 1030. IT WOULD BE NICE IF WE CAN GET IT EARLY MONDAY SO THEY CAN COME BACK IN AND BUY IT. OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS OR SO 1031-1030 HAS SHOWN BUYERS ARE WILLING "AT THIS POINT" TO STEP UP TO THE PLATE. NOT MUCH VOLUME ON EITHER SIDE WITH CONVICTION. THE 38.2% IS AT 1024.00 AND THE 61.8 PROJ IS AT 1060, GEE WHO'D A THUNK THAT<vbg>. OEX---BEARISH HARAMI ON FRIDAY USUALLY SIGNALS A CONTINUATION OF THE TREND, WHICH IS DOWN. THE 505 AREA IS A DB BREAK AND A TEST OF THE OCT LOWS THERE'S HEAVY SUPPORT AT 485/490 AREA OF THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK RESIDES "AND" THE BSL LINE TOO. I'D TAKE THE OEX LONG USING OPTIONS THERE. DEC CALLS SPZ3---NOT A GOOD LOOKING CHART FOLKS. HIT A TRIPLE TOP AT 1060 AND NOW SITTING AT A DB AT 1032. THE MID 10 WEEK. IF WE BREAK 1028 THAT WOULD BE NEGATIVE, WE NEED A 3 BOX UP AT 1044 FOR A NEW START HIGHER. 38.2 RETRACE IS AT 1023.27 AND THE 61.8% IS AT 1061.00 IF WE BREAK DOWN WE TAG 1020/18 AND BUYERS SHOW UP HARD. I'LL BE ONE OF THEM AND SO WILL YOU ALL IF THE SET UP IS CORRECT. NQZ3---SIDEWAYS WED THRU FRIDAY AT THE 38.2% NUMBER AT 1360. HAS AN IDENTICAL LOOK AS THE ES. 1350 THE BSL AND DB SUPPORT. 1390 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP 1400 DT BUY WITH THE PROJECTION AT 1428.00 AT 61.88%. OK THATS IT FOR THE INDEXES WE ARE IN VERY CRITICAL AREAS RIGHT NOW WITH DETERIORATING INTERNALS. ALL A/D LINES ARE ON SELL SIGNALS ON ALL INDEXES NYSE, AMEX AND NAZ. GOT THIS ALL EVERYONE? BE CAREFUL OUT THERE. ================================================================================================ BEFORE I DO OUR 20 STOCKS TO WATCH "BARRONS" HAD A BLURB OF MINE ON THEIR WEB SITE ON THE 19TH IN MARKET WATCH..3RD TIME I'VE BEEN QUOTED IN THIS NEWSPAPER. ================================================================================================= Jerry, In case you didn't see this, you made Barron's this week in the Market Watch section. Jerry Olson Update 1776 Sharpless Rd. Meadowbrook, Pa. 19046 NOV. 19 - It's impossible to go straight up; we need these pullbacks for setups going forward.... Yesterday [11/18] was no distribution day, folks. Volume was below the three-month average. We'll see the "Puke City" get-me-outta-here blowoff bottom if and when it happens. Heck, it may never happen, but that would sure be nice for us to get long in a hurry. I will not position us long here yet. I want to see an outside reversal day, with high volume to nail the bottom. -- Jerry Olson Kip ============================================================================================================== HERE ARE THE ECONOMIC REPORTS FOR THIS COMING WEEK COURTESY OF DORSEY WRIGHT AND TOM DORSEY ================================================================================================ Indicator Date Time Estimate Previous Country Chain Deflator-Prel. (Q3) 11/25/2003 8:30AM 1.7% 1.7% US GDP-Prel. (Q3) 11/25/2003 8:30AM 7.3% 7.2% US Consumer Confidence (Nov) 11/25/2003 10:00AM 82.8 81.1 US Existing Home Sales (Oct) 11/25/2003 10:00AM 6.50M 6.69M US Durable Orders (Oct) 11/26/2003 8:30AM 0.5% 0.8% US Initial Claims (11/22) 11/26/2003 8:30AM N/A N/A US Personal Income (Oct) 11/26/2003 8:30AM 0.3% 0.3% US Personal Spending (Oct) 11/26/2003 8:30AM 0.0% -0.3% US Help-Wanted Index (Oct) 11/26/2003 10:00AM 38 37 US New Home Sales (Oct) 11/26/2003 10:00AM 1133K 1145K US Fed's Beige Book 11/26/2003 2:00PM N/A N/A US Initial Claims (11/22) 11/27/2003 8:30AM N/A N/A US Initial Claims (11/22) 11/28/2003 8:30AM N/A N/A US Mich Sentiment-Rev. (Nov) 11/28/2003 9:45AM N/A 93.5 US Chicago PMI (Nov) 11/28/2003 10:00AM 56.5 55.0 US Existing Home Sales (Oct) 11/28/2003 10:00AM N/A 6.69M US ================================================================================================= OK LET'S CHECK OUR WATCH LIST FOR THIS WEEK. CRITICAL CHARTS FOR THE MO MO HIGH FLYERS AS YOU ARE WITNESSING CORRECTIONS IN A TON OF STOCKS. IN THE SHORT TERM WE ARE OVERSOLD ON ALL CHARTS. NOW IS THIS A BACKSIDE BOUNCE TO SHORT? OR WILL WE BREAK UP AND THRU OVERHEAD RESISTANCE. WE'LL KNOW SOON ENOUGH. HANG TOUGH, TRADE RELAXED, HAVE NO BIAS RIGHT NOW, AND GO TO CASH EACH EVENING PERIOD! KLIC---CAME OUT WITH A CONVERTIBLE DEBT OFFERING AND IT TANKED THE STOCK FROM 16.97 ON THURS LATE TO 15.00 EARLY FRIDAY IT SETTLED AT 15.36 WITH A VERY HIGH ADX READING ON THE 15 MINUTE CHART AS IT WAS PUSHED LOWER. THE STOCK HAS REVERSED 3 BOXES AT 15.50. NOW THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 13.50 NOT SURE WHERE IT WILL SETTLE JUST YET..I AM LONG FOR THE MOMENT BUT MAY EXIT IF I NEED TO. IT'S RIGHT ON THE 20 EMA DCC...15.75 THE BTL---14.90 THE SST...HIGH VOLUME SELLING FRIDAY IS IT DONE? BRCM---HAMMERED FRIDAY OFF A 33 TOUCH ALREADY DID A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. LOOKS LIKE A DECENDING WEDGE ON THE DCC. 34.60 THE BTL---33.60 THE SST CECO---RIGHT NOW UNDER ALL MVA'S ON THE DCC CHART. NEEDS TO CONTINUE UP HERE..47 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN TO START A TRIANGLE PATTERN P&F. 50.00 THE BTL---48.80 THE SST AMGN---TRYING TO BOUNCE HERE NEEDS A LOT OF HELP. BIO'S ARE WEAK RIGHT NOW BUT THS IS VERY OVERSOLD. 60.55 THE BTL---59.40 THE SST...62 A 3BXRVUP...(THREE BOX REVERSAL UP) NTAP---HELD WELL LAST WEEK AFTER EPS. THE 20 EMA IS NOW O/H(OVERHEAD AT 23.85ISH. A GAP IS THERE AS WELL TO BE FILLED. 22.20 THE BTL---21.30 THE SST. NVLS---HAMMERED FRIDAY AHEAD OF THEIR MID QUARTER UPDATE TOMORROW OR THIS WEEK SOME TIME, PLEASE CHECK IT FOR US ALL. THIS ONE COULD START A NICE SEMIS RALLY. ALREADY HAS A 3BXRVDN. BUT THE MID 10 WEEK IS DOWN AT 39 NOT SURE IT GETS THERE. WE'LL KNOW ASAP. 43.05 THE BTL---41.95 THE SST DESCENDING WEDGE DCC CHART TOO. WATCH FOR A POP OVER THAT DOJI ON THURS LAST WEEK.. PMCS---DESCENDING WEDGE DAILY ALREADY PULLED BACK 5 BOXES OFF THAT BALLISTIC HIGH POLE IT'S SITTING ON THE 40 EMA DCC LOOKS READY FOR A POP. 19.20 THE BTL---18.30 THE SST SINA---THIS CHART STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHORT ALL RALLY STOCK TO ME. JUST REVERSED BACK UP 4 BOXES BUT THE RS IS NOW TURNED WEAKER. 20 EMA DCC IS AT 35.75 MAYBE A SHORT THERE. 32.55 THE BTL---31.40 THE SST SLAB---GAINING SOME TRACTION HERE ON THE DCC CHART. IN AN AREA OF SOME SOLID SUPPORT AROUND 45 ISH AT THE BSL LINE. ACTED WELL ON FRIDAY. 48.05 THE BTL---46.95 THE SST UTSI---I KEEP THINKING THIS ONE IS GOING A LOT HIGHER DESPITE THIS PULLBACK. 31 WAS AN IMPORTANT BOTTOM FOR THE STOCK AT THE BSL LINE I LIKE IT HIGHER MARKET WILLING. MAYBE A SWING TRADE TYPE STOCK. 36.25 THE BTL---35.20 THE SST ADI--- A SOLID SEMIS STOCK WITH A GREAT CHART PATTERN. IT HAS SOLID SUPPORT AT THE 20 EMA ALREADY DID REVERSE BACK DOWN 3 BOXES. BULLISH STICK FRIDAY. 47.75 THE BTL---46.60 THE SST NEM---INSIDE BAR FRIDAY LAST 3 DAYS LOWER VOLUME CAREFUL YOU LONGS. THE STOCK IS A BIT OVERBOUGHT 45.70 THE BTL--44.70 THE SST. PFE---WE CALLED THIS A SHORT AT 34.45 LAST WEEK AND IT'S BEEN VERY NICE TO THE DOWNSIDE SO FAR I THINK ANOTHER POINT DOWN TO THE RISING 20 EMA WILL DO IT FOR NOW. 33.75 THE BTL---32.80 THE SST QCOM---THIS STOCK GETS NO RESPECT, WHILE IT LOOKS AWFUL ON THE CANDLESTICK CHART IT'S ONLY JUST PULLING BACK ON P&F 4 BOXES SO FAR AFTER TOUCHING A 52 WEEK TOP AT 48. CCI DAILY IS VERY OVERSOLD. 44.45 THE BTL---43.30 THE SST KLAC---CASCADING LOWER CORRECTING HERE..THEN ON FRIDAY A SPINNING TOP OR HANGING MAN BAR. INTERESTING HUH?...IN A DESCENDING WEDGE DCC CHART. 55.70 THE BTL---54.45 THE SST. QLGC---UH OH DOUBLE GRAVESTONE DOJI'S WEDS AND THURS, WITH A HANGING MAN BAR FRIDAY AND NOW? DESCENDING WEDGE DAILY CANDLE CHART. 55.05 THE BTL---53.95 THE SST NSM---WE WILL OWN THIS ONE LONG SOME TIME IN DEC, IT HAMMERED FRIDAY AFTER TRADING SIDEWAYS MOST OF THE WEEK AT THE 20 & 40 EMA'S. PERFECT PULL BACK ON THE P&F CHART. 40.50 THE BTL---39.30 THE SST I LIKE THIS LONG FOR A BOUNCE OVTI---YOU TRADE THIS AT YOUR OWN PERIL<G>...WILD AND CRAZY STOCK FOLKS ALL OVER THE PLACE. HAMMERED FRIDAY AFTER AN INVERTED HAMMER THURSDAY WHEW! BIG OPEN GAP DOWN AT 55 STILL OPEN. 60.50 THE BTL---59.30 THE SST EBAY---STILL LONG THIS DOG WITH FLEAS BUT IT'S FOUND A BOTTOM AREA HERE AT 50-51 SO FAR. 52.65 THE BTL---51.30 THE SST..THE 3 BX REV UP IS AT 54 COULD GO TO 56 THE MID 10 WEEK FROM BELOW. SMH---BETWEEN THE 20 AND 40 EMA'S DCC CHART. ACTED WELL FRIDAY AS ALWAYS IF YOU LEARN TO TRADE THIS YOU'LL BECOME RICH. JUST DO NOT BECOME GREEDY WITH IT..TAKE THAT 40-50 CENTS AUTOMATICALLY. 42.15 THE BTL---41.30 THE SST ================================================================================================ I WANT TO WISH EACH AND EVERYONE OF YOU A HAPPY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TO YOU AND YOURS FROM ME AND MINE. ALL THE BEST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TRADING YEAR. THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS..........wishbone............................. SEE YOU ALL IN THE ROOM IN THE AM WARMEST REGARDS JERRY www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net

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