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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aladin who wrote (121001)	12/5/2003 12:14:02 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

This article on Taiwan in this morning's Globe and Mail suggests that eventually the world must recognize Taiwan as an independent nation: theglobeandmail.com Taiwan is arguably the most successful Asian nation in modern history. Yet, in the official view of most other countries, it simply does not exist. Just 27 of the world's 190-odd countries recognize Taiwan as a country, and most of those are tiny, poor, or both. Though Taiwan has had its own government for decades, it has no seat at the United Nations, a rare snub from a body so undiscriminating that even North Korea is a member. Though it's the world's 14th-biggest exporter, it was let into the World Trade Organization only last year. It is still shut out of the World Health Organization. Not surprisingly, the 23 million people of Taiwan find all of this a little galling. Most pariah nations are pariahs for a reason. White-ruled South Africa was tossed out of the Commonwealth and denied voting rights at the UN because its government was racist. Saddam Hussein's Iraq faced UN sanctions because it refused to come clean about weapons of mass destruction. What, ask, the Taiwanese, have we done? Taiwan's exclusion has it roots in the Chinese Revolution of 1949. When Mao Tsetung's Communists defeated Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists and took control in Beijing, Chiang retreated to Taiwan and set up a government in exile that claimed to be the legitimate ruler of all China. In time, most of the world rejected this fiction, recognized Mao's People's Republic and Taiwan was hurled into the void. Fair enough. Chiang was a pretender, and a dictator to boot. But that was 30 years ago. Chiang died in 1975, and Taiwan began to change. With its economy growing at an average of 10 per cent a year through the sixties, seventies, and eighties, Taiwan became suddenly prosperous. Today, its per capita output stands at $22,155, not far short of Canada's. The UN ranks it 24th on its global development index, ahead of rivals Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. With prosperity came a thirst for freedom. Chiang's son lifted martial law in 1987, opposition parties sprang up, and a free presidential election was held in 1996. And with freedom came a thirst for recognition. In 2000, Taiwan elected Chen Shui-bian, an advocate of independence for Taiwan, as President. Mr. Chen is now making waves. Facing a re-election campaign next March, and trailing in the polls, he tried to push a law through parliament to allow a referendum on Taiwan's political status. Parliament balked, and watered down the law, but Mr. Chen says he still wants to go ahead with some kind of popular vote in March. That makes China see red. On Wednesday, senior Chinese military officers reiterated that any such referendum could trigger a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province and threatens to invade if it officially declares itself a separate country. Such a declaration would only be stating the obvious. Taiwan has been separate for more than 50 years. All it wants now is what every other country has: recognition that it is a country. The world is far from ready to give it. In fact, most other countries have reacted to Mr. Chen's pro-independence murmurings with barely concealed horror. The United States, though Taiwan's biggest patron, doesn't want to upset China, Asia's booming goliath. As Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao prepares to visit Washington next week, U.S. officials are urging Mr. Chen to clam up. That, indeed, is the world's attitude to Taiwan: Keep quiet and don't rock the boat. That's reasonable to a point. No one wants a war over Taiwan. Everyone hopes Mr. Chen won't needlessly provoke China. He himself has promised not to actually declare independence unless China attacks. But the world can't expect Taiwan to stay mum forever. Someone once said that a nation is a group of people who have achieved great things together in the past and hope to achieve great things in the future. Taiwan clearly fits the bill. Its people have achieved miracles over the past 20 years, transforming a small island into an economic dynamo and trading a grim authoritarian regime for a thriving democracy. Whatever China may say, this is not a renegade province. This is a nation. Eventually, the world must recognize it.

To: aladin who wrote (121001)	12/5/2003 12:32:55 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 281500

From Foreign Affairs: "The shifting balance within Asia poses a particular challenge for Taiwan, East Asia's other potential conflict zone where the United States has long acted as a key military deterrent. China's growing prominence within Asia and Taiwan's own increasing economic interdependence with the mainland are creating new constituencies for reconciliation and will make it increasingly difficult for Taipei to resist a serious negotiation with Beijing over time. Some 700,000 Taiwanese now live in China, and Taiwanese investment, estimated to exceed $100 billion, is growing rapidly there. Beijing appears to believe that expanding these economic ties will significantly improve its bargaining position and help resolve the conflict. Accordingly, in 2002, China's defense white paper, although it expressed commitment to modernizing China's military, took a softer tone on Taiwan than in the past, and Beijing appears to be moderating its rhetoric in general. Of course, China will never drop its opposition to Taiwanese independence altogether, since reunification remains central to Communist Party ideology. As for Washington's role, Taipei has reason to be worried by recent developments. The Bush administration began its tenure by talking of a more robust relationship with and new arms sales to the island. Since then, U.S. reliance on China to help resolve the North Korean crisis, and the general strengthening of U.S.-China ties since September 11, has dampened Taiwanese morale. Some Taiwanese may now regret their decision to abandon the nuclear option, as they begin to wonder whether the United States will really be willing to defend them in the event of a conflict against a nuclear-armed China. It would, however, be exceedingly hard for lonely Taiwan to resurrect its nuclear weapons program. The United States will continue to reassure Taiwan about its security by offering to sell new arms to the island and helping Taiwan gain a presence in international forums, while warning China not to be too aggressive. Time is not on Taiwan's side, however. Domestic politics in democratic Taiwan could lead to a precipitous move, such as a declaration of independence, which China would take as an extreme provocation. Many in Taiwan would like to delay talks with China indefinitely. It is more likely, however, that serious negotiations on relations with Beijing, either publicly or in secret, will begin in the not-too-distant future. The United States, which has always advocated a peaceful resolution to the conflict, should favor such a development, which would gradually relieve Washington of its military role in the Taiwan Strait." Adjusting to the New Asia Morton Abramowitz and Stephen Bosworth. Foreign Affairs. New York: July/August 2003. Vol. 82, Iss. 4; pg. 119 ______________________________________________________ I have no doubt that Taiwan is capable of doing something stupid as a result of short-term domestic political interests -- and other than recent arms sales I cannot point you to any one person egging them on. Our strategic interests are crystal clear -- we should actively discourage Taiwan from hitting their own self-destruct button and fire anybody from the US Administration caught doing any cheerleading for independence.