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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3775)	12/8/2003 12:38:40 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4916

Date: Mon Dec 08 2003 10:32 trotsky (McStew@election cycle) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved if this cycle performs again according to past probabilities, it would also indicate that a gold sector top is far in the future ( on account of gold stocks tending to peak with a lag to the SnP ) . note however that since the secular bear began in late '00 ( i regard the secondary top after the Nasdaq post-crash sucker's rally as the true beginning ) , seasonal cycles have proven not to work on several occasions ( i.e., the market went up in counter-trend rallies when it was supposed to go down, and went down when it was supposed to go up, based on the simple May-October bearish seasonal cycle and the Nov - April bullish seasonal cycle ) . therefore it's possible that the election cycle won't work either. warning signs are in fact beginning to proliferate ( e.g., last week, AAII reported nearly 70% bulls vs. only 14% bears, a near record spread. also, the junk and emerging market debt blow-off has reached levels of euphoria generally associated with tops. stock index put premiums - a good indicator of risk-awareness - have fallen to multi-year lows, a sign of wide-spread complacency. mutual fund cash holdings are near a record low. insider selling is at a record high. WS equity allocations close to a record high. Nasdaq margin debt at a record high. -etc., etc. ) . in short, everybody seems to be betting already that the cycle will work as usual. but as a practical matter, it can only work when NOT everybody is betting on it, since it needs fresh commitments of money to work.