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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4469)	12/5/2003 6:02:27 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108663

>>you assume CPI price inflation will not appear<< aw heck, Jim. that's been rigged for years -- did you see that contrary investor piece -- someone posted it -- CPI is just a way to rip off retirees -- they'll reivse that endlessly -- there'll never be any inflation in that -- LOL what do houses cost compared to what they costed 4 years ago? how much more does it cost you at the grocery today than it did 4 years ago? How much more does it cost to fill your Navigator? (kidding -- I don't know what you drive) Seriously, what you need is selling by foreigners -- but what they need is a strong dollar (or so they think). that dynamic will change -- but it won't be a cliff experience -- they will throw a lot more "good money after bad" -- I put in quotes cause all fiat is bad -- it's a matter of relative badness -- that's all we are talking about you have to view treasuries the same way, IMO. They are one asset that is out there, but there is a ton of agency and corporate debt as well -- as well as equity (if you can call it that). A lot of that is pure carp next to treasuries -- hence it will get blasted first -- and when housing prices start to decline, there will be even further impetus for folks to buy treasuries ... You'll have to wait until foreigners are absolutely convinced that selling stuff to us is not their last best hope to preserve their own butts -- We can have more than two or three quarters of declining consumerism and a declining buck before they give up. Think about it -- how long has everyone been predicting this turn and rapid rise in interest rates -- I've been hearing about it for at least the last 3 years ... No, I think rates are going down -- for at least the next 6 months to a year -- stocks will go down with the rates as will demand for funds. Maybe spreads on corporates and agencies start to widen appreciably in 3-6 months ... that'll be a risk premium increase