Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2923)	12/6/2003 7:31:54 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

commercials are typically seen as smart money; speculators as dumb money.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2923)	12/6/2003 11:44:14 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

<<<which side is usually right >>> There are many different approaches to interpret COTs. My basic one is: 1. Speculators always drive markets. 2. Markets have sudden sharp corrections when open interest is large and speculators take gains or losses. NOTE: It's pretty much easy to define who is commercial and who is speculator in commodities trading, but I'm still confused who is commercial/speculator in, say, SP500 trading. Here is a link with some free historical data softwarenorth.com

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2923)	12/8/2003 1:11:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Commercial gold position is totally 100% meaningless IMO. Commercials are gold producers. They mine gold. They sell gold in the futures markets. The producers will always be short gold. Period, end of story. They will never be long. There is a nother class of commercials, however. They are the jewerly makers etc etce. They buy gold. They will never be short it, but they buy it when they need it and expect to sell if for a profit. Thus No squeeze, ZERO chance of a squeeze against the commercials. The position to watcvh is the long vs short position in the small specs (non-reportables), and the big specs (the MUFUs). The big specs were huugely long but two weeks ago we rallied because there was signifivcant short interest. Other hedge funds, or some MUFus were short gold and some weere long. Hardly anyone is short now, so the odds of squeeze anywhere is rather small. It will liklely rise and fall with the US$, no more no less, and none of this has ANYTHING to do with "commercials" being hugely short. They were short at 300, 350, 375, 399, 400 and will be short at 410, 430, 480, and 500 or even 1000 if we get there. Simnply because they produce gold and sell it, typically in the futures markets. M