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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (2930)	12/6/2003 10:34:17 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

actually, what he said is their historical range is 1-3x profits, which doesn't make any sense. i saw that too, but it was obviously a typo for 1-3x NAV. it has hopefully been corrected in the print version. i think "NAV" is the only possible interpretation, since the rest of the paragraph is about NAV and 1-3x profits makes NO sense -g-. I am not going to tell you I think NEM is cheap i understand there are different ways of valuing these things, which are not dependent on PE. Grant has from time to time presented some interesting analyses of the "Gold Equity Value" of NEM which seem to justify higher prices. i won't say it can't go to 75 or whatever (several weeks ago i was musing on this thread that it could go to 50 even when it was in the low 40s, and i bought 42.50 NOV puts on my position...[i wrote: "maybe i'll see if they can hit 50 in an upward blowoff spasm" Message 19516029 alas, the Monday after the NOV options expired, i sold my NEM at market open for 44.98.) my real point is not "how high can it go if the global monetary system disintegrates overnight and gold goes to $3000"...rather, my point is: how attractive is the risk/reward, vis-a-vis other options? one can have different answers to that question, but i think that is the question to be asking oneself. my own answer was to pull away from the miners but hold onto some energies (currently around 10% of portfolio, and basically ALL the equities i have). however, i am still USD bearish as i have 88% of my stuff in bonds, 80% of which is a mixture of AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, and EUR. The real question is what's going to happen to world GDP. How much energy use will grow if GDP slows dramatically is a big question in my mind my feeling is that, over a period of a decade, energy prices MUST rise significantly almost regardless of what happens to GDP. this is because i buy into the peak oil scenario. peakoil.net best of luck and keep your "options open".