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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (2933)	12/6/2003 4:32:46 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

what energy stocks do you like let me apologize in advance for a bit of a meandering answer here... i am now in a "rebuilding phase" for energy stocks. at one point, they were well over 30% of portfolio. when i closed out my gold positions, i also largely liquidated my energies (which i had been liquidating anyway) as i was trying to work from a "clean slate". (i do this now and then) my general approach with energies and with gold was to pick the sector first and the stocks second. with gold, i was by far heaviest in NEM and FCX, since i trusted these cos more than the little BB stocks costing a couple bucks. i also bought those types of miners, but in "shotgun" fashion (a little bit of everything). as you know, this year, if you picked the gold sector, you could have been a monkey and put together a portfolio that would have done superbly. by contrast, the energy sector is only up about 10% on the year--significantly underperforming the PMs and the SPX. here's a chart comparing their YTD performance: bigcharts.marketwatch.com so this year, to outperform on energies, you had to be in the right stocks. as it happened, my biggest holding by far was Vostok Nafta, a closed end Swedish fund that invests primarily in Gazprom (the Russian natural gas behemoth) and other Russian cos. the thing that distinguishes Vostok is that they buy shares inside the "ring fence". so Vostok did very well, more than doubling from my purchase price. it was hitting new highs for the year not long before Khodorovsky (sp?) got arrested, and this event caused me no small concern. i decided to book my gains and leave the table. so my portfolio of energy stocks had about a 20% gain, but more than half of the profits came from this one stock, Vostok Nafta. so that was then, this is now. my thinking is, energy has a very good chance of outperforming the SPX over the next few years, and of providing at least decent absolute returns as well. so in this situation, i will just take a shotgun approach as i did with gold, perhaps overweighting this or that issue slightly, but not excessively as i did with Vostok. this is to say that i would rather argue that the energy sector will do well, than that this or that stock i buy will outperform the sector. hell, i may just end up buying all the stocks in the DJ Energy Index (there are 72 of them, so that should be representative!). presently, i own the following names: APA BP BR CVX CBI COP ECA OIH PCZ PTR PTF RD ROYL SJT TLM VLO XOM back in the spring i had a lot more of these energy stocks. here was the list of names i had last May. i think i had about 100 names at the peak. Amerada Hess AHC Anadarko Petroleum APC Apache Corp APA BJ Services BJS BP BP Burlington Resources BR ChevronTexaco CVX Chicago Bridge and Iron CBI ConocoPhillips COP Consol Energy CNX El Paso Corp EP Encana ECA Eog Resources EOG Exxon Mobil XOM Grant Prideco GRP Hurricane Hydrocarbons HHL Kerr-McGee KMG Kinder Morgan KMI Marathon Oil MRO Murphy Oil MUR Nabors Industries NBR Natural Fuel Gas NFG Nicor Inc GAS Nisource Inc NI Noble Energy NBL Norsk Hydro NHY Occidental Petroleum OXY Ocean Energy OEI Oil Service HOLDR OIH Petro China PTR Petro-Canada PCZ Pioneer Natural Resources PXD Pogo Producing PPP Premcor PCO Questar Corp STR Repsol REP RoyalDutch RD Suncor SU Sunoco Inc SUN Talisman TLM Tesoro TSO Total Fina TOT Unocal Corp UCL Valero VLO Vostok Nafta VKNSF Williams Cos WMB Xto Energy XTO Message 18924876