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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (7130)	12/7/2003 9:23:50 AM
From: Glenn Petersen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10965

The polls have not been kind to erstwhile front-runner John Kerry, so the Democratic presidential candidate has settled on a novel solution: make 'em up. Jockeying for Poll Position, Kerry Tries Unusual Spins washingtonpost.com By Dana Milbank Sunday, December 7, 2003; Page A04 The polls have not been kind to erstwhile front-runner John Kerry, so the Democratic presidential candidate has settled on a novel solution: make 'em up. "Let me tell you something," he said Thursday on the CBS "Early Show." "John McCain was 30 points behind Bush in New Hampshire at this point in time." The point was clear: Kerry, far behind Howard Dean in New Hampshire, would have a come-from-behind victory, just as McCain did over George W. Bush in 2000. Well, not exactly. At this time four years ago, an American Research Group poll found McCain with a 37 percent to 30 percent lead over Bush in New Hampshire. And a Franklin Pierce College poll put McCain's lead at 15 points. This is not the first time Kerry has cited fanciful polling. A month ago, Kerry was asked at a debate about polls showing Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) ahead of all the actual Democratic candidates. "I saw a poll the other day that showed me about 15 points ahead of her," Kerry replied. But his campaign could produce no such poll. And that blooper came just a day after Kerry said on CNN's "Inside Politics," "I am not as far behind in New Hampshire today as Al Gore was to Bill Bradley four years ago." Hmm. In November 1999, a Dartmouth College poll gave Gore a 7-point lead and a Newsweek poll put Gore's advantage at 10 points. Seems that with all that turnover at the Kerry campaign, the research department is getting a bit thin. <snip>

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (7130)	12/7/2003 11:43:40 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10965

Dean is kinda screwed when it comes to delegates: Dem delegates are awarded per percentage of each state vote. No winner take all states as in the GOP. That means if Dean were to get 25% of the total vote nationally he'd arrive with only 25% of the allocated delegates. I see 25% as about the peak of the anti-war left vote in the party. But it's worse than that actually. 37% of delegates are held back from the entire process. These are owned by top Democrat officials and the DNC itself. They can cast their votes any way they want regardless of voter sentiment. They use these delegates as bargaining chips and safety cushions. That's where endorsements and party unity come into play. Guys like Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt have loads of Super Delegates commited to them to start. I don't believe Dean has more than a half dozen. Together with the DNC therefore, they can effectively block almost anyone's nomination. This practice was put into effect in order to stop George Wallace, Jesse Jackson, Eugene McCarthy (and Howard Dean?) type candidacies fueled by any angry "extremist" wing of the party (ie unelectables) from hijacking the party after a few scares in the past. Did you know that if he hadn't been shot angry voter outsider segregationist George Wallace might have won the nomination - when was it back in 1972? Jesse Jackson did so well in the south he had a chance at it too. Even Paul Tsongas gave the party a scare before he started sliding back down. The bottomline for Dean is that the very lucky break that helps him (being the only major anti war candidate as the war gets F'ed up) also hurts him because he's running against three very powerful party powers loaded with Super Delegates plus Clark and Edwards, any or all of whom will end up with more than 10% of the delegates each. He will therefore need at least most of them to endorse him in order to win. Dean also has a problem with the DNC and DLC. His rise was partly due to the Naderite type anti-establishment anger, blaming the Dem establishment for being "Bush lite' and promsing sweeping changes. Well that means the entire DNC would lose their jobs if Dean takes power. SO he can forget about those Super Delegates. They alone make up about 8% of the total needed to win. All this is why I think it is more and more logical than Al Gore come in and unite everyone. But first we need to run a few primaries and actually see who votes for who.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (7130)	12/7/2003 12:01:02 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10965

The breakdown of the delegate votes is as follows: 3530 Base delegate votes - awarded by percentage of vote in each state (no winner take all states) 797 Super Delegates - owned by Officials and the DNC who can vote any way they want. TOTAL: 4317 delegate votes, 2159 needed to win * Since Dean is getting almost no Super Delegate help and it not likely to endorsed by any other candidate except Kucinich, he would need over 60% of the total votes cast to win if the party wanted to block him. More likely Dean will get about 25% of the total votes, which is a strong showing. He will pray that other major candidates drop out, but if they don't (and the party may press them to stay in to collect delegates) then the final split may turn out somethng like this, if current trends continue. Dean - 25% Clark, Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Edwards - 65% together Others - 10% Then the Also-Ran Five will also control some 450 Super Delegates. Dean may get 150 or so. The DNC will control the other 200 or so. * Dean may get only 1000 delegates by convention time even if he wins more than half the primaries. * This has all the makings of either a total gridlock, the #2 and #3 candidates teaming up or Al Gore entering to unite the party.