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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (2959)	12/7/2003 11:50:29 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 110194

Hi tippet, <<Faber agrees with your dollar bounce theory ... >> ... Or, rather, I agree with Faber, and I believe the trigger can be the Taiwan-China-USA situation as folks on all sides start to talk as if it all is for real Message 19571751 <<Talk on Taiwan not just bluff>> Chugs, Jay

To: yard_man who wrote (2959)	12/8/2003 8:21:08 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

The only scenario that I can see that might stabilize the dollar is a vigorous interest rate defense, and an attempt to cool off consumer spending, and encourage savings. I'm not aware of any of those being proposed as policy at this point, so I'd have to say Faber is early on the big picture. If we had the right language (removing the "considerable time" term or stronger) from the Fed Tuesday we could see a little USD bounce, and minor gold selloff, but that's about it IMO (unless the follow on hikes were quick and aggressive). I don't think energy will miss a beat. We could see a big stock market selloff if we had that language. In the bond market we would get a selloff in the short end, but it might be possible for the long end to hold, especially if there was an indication rate increases were coming quickly. I think the market pressures for the Fed to start hiking will be relentless though.