Closer to a Flori-done Deal
Some sunshine for Republicans.
— Jim Geraghty, a reporter for States News Service, is an NRO contributor.
Recent polls in Florida show President George W. Bush had a better autumn than the Jacksonville Jaguars, but a worse one than the World Champion Florida Marlins.
Maybe the better Florida sports metaphor for Bush this year would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Super Bowl champs haven't done nearly as well as expected this year, and have serious work to do if they want to return to their top-dog status in 2004.
According to a new poll conducted by the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald, Florida voters are heading into the presidential election year almost as divided as they were in 2000.
The good news is the elder Bush brother comfortably leads all his Democratic challengers in Florida, beating everyone from Dean to Sharpton by at least eight points. Against a generic Democrat, 43 percent of voters would reelect Bush, while 37 percent would back the eventual Democratic nominee.
The bad news is only 53 percent of voters approve of the job Bush is doing as president — a drop of seven points since May. Among independent voters, 50 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove. (The poll was conducted Dec. 1-3 by the Washington polling firms of Schroth & Associates and the polling company. The statewide phone survey of 800 registered Florida voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.)
Interestingly, a statewide poll conducted two weeks ago by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research found Bush leading all his Democratic challengers by 20 percentage points or more, with 23 percent of Democrats undecided about their nominee. It's possible that one of these polls is skewed or represents a temporary bump or trough in the president's numbers.
There are reasons for GOP optimism in these polls. As Tom Bevan, an editor of Real Clear Politics points out, Bush has a 61-percent approval rating among Hispanics, despite the rift he caused with the Cuban-American community earlier this year by repatriating Cuban exiles. Bush will also come to Florida next year armed with the Medicare bill, which, not surprisingly, is the number one issue of concern among Florida's older-leaning population.
"If history is any guide, Bush should be comfortable with level of GOP energy and organization in the state," Bevan concludes. "You'll remember that in 2002 [Democratic National Committee head] Terry McAuliffe declared Jeb Bush 'Enemy Number 1' and promised to do whatever was necessary to defeat him. Despite the DNC's best efforts, Jeb won in a cakewalk (13 points) and led Republicans to a solid thrashing of Florida Dems from the top of the ticket to the bottom."
But what if there's a controversial GOP figure running for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham? Say, congresswoman and former state election official Katherine Harris?
The thought of a Harris candidacy has some Democrats and their allies dancing in elation. The New York Times reported that GOP officials are horrified at the thought of "the image of Ms. Harris campaigning alongside Mr. Bush in Florida next fall, stirring up partisan memories and potentially driving Florida Democrats to the polls in record numbers."
Harris told the Times that she had not yet reached a decision, "but made clear that she was aware of her potential toxicity for the Bush campaign and would not do anything to undermine his re-election. 'I want to make certain I have a positive effect, not a negative one,' she said."
Even the usually right-of-center London Daily Telegraph weighed in, calling Harris "lavishly coiffured" and "radioactive."
"With Florida again a vital battleground in next year's presidential elections, the last thing they want is Mr. Bush having to campaign for Miss Harris," wrote Washington correspondent David Rennie. "That is guaranteed to galvanise the millions of Americans who believe that the president and his Florida cohorts stole victory from the Democrat, Al Gore."
But the likelihood of Bush and Harris sharing every Florida photo op took a major blow Friday, as word leaked that the White House's preferred candidate, Cuban-American U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Mel Martinez, would throw his hat in the ring.
Martinez is expected to announce his decision to resign from HUD as early as next week. Two officials told the Associated Press that word could come at Bush's Cabinet meeting Thursday.
As the White House's favorite and a potential Hispanic senator, Martinez is likely to receive serious fundraising and campaign support from top GOP officials and donors.
A Mason-Dixon poll taken in late November found the race "wide open" as Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon put it.
Former state education commissioner Democrat Betty Castor is the leading Democrat, while the GOP field is currently a jumble of candidates. Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, who lost the 2000 Senate race to Democrat Bill Nelson, is running against House Speaker Johnnie Byrd (R., Plant City), state Sen. Daniel Webster (R., Winter Park), Pinellas County Commissioner Barbara Sheen Todd, and lawyer Larry Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch, for the Republican nomination.
McCollum, Byrd, and Webster appear to be competing for the same slice of voters on the religious right and in Central Florida.
There's one last wrinkle: Former New Hampshire GOP Senator Bob Smith — whose named was mocked by Jay Leno for sounding like an alias — could also throw his hat in the ring.
"My wife and I certainly had no intention of re-entering politics when we moved here," Smith told the Charlotte Harbor Sun-Herald recently. "But ever since Senator Graham retired, a lot of people have been asking me to run, offering to support me and raise money.
"Of course, I thought of it as just very flattering at first. But the level of interest seems to be increasing, and so I'm meeting with people I know and respect, gauging the level of support I'm seeing and being offered.... If it turns out to be as strong as it looks, I'll probably officially announce next month and begin traveling around the state to meet people, let them get to know me and hear what they have to say.... At this point, my feeling is, 'Why not?'
At first glance, Smith looks like an unserious candidate, after his political career came to a crashing finale when he lost the Republican primary election to the state's junior congressman, John E. Sununu.
Granite State Republicans got tired of Smith after he made a dramatic exit from the Republican party while lambasting the GOP for deserting its core conservative principles. He then ran for president as an Independent in 1999, before returning to the party a short time later.
But Smith has some interesting Florida connections. He was a high-profile defender of Elián Gonzalez's Miami relatives, vocally demanding that the Cuban boy who washed up on a Florida beach in 1999 stay in the United States. As chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, he shepherded a landmark bill to protect the Florida Everglades through Congress. And the senator was often mocked with "Starfleet" jokes for his relentless enthusiasm for a new space-based branch of the military — but that idea may not seem so ridiculous in the state that is home to NASA.
Smith's return to the U.S. Senate is a long-shot. But if he won, he certainly could have some interesting discussions with Senator Sununu during votes.
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