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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (49337)	12/8/2003 11:18:48 AM
From: Libbyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

you're betting early on the severity of an epidemic, no matter which way you play it. You probably are right...and IMO the "bet" isn't so much the severity of an epidemic, but the amount of fear that this flu generates. Not having a position in MEDI long or short is probably a smart decision, since the stock price will most likely be moved by the perception of the flu outbreak. IMO even with this flu scare the FluMist vaccine will probably not "sell"...since the lack of coverage of the vaccine by insurance policies is a major factor, even with those with the ability to pay for the vaccine. It seems that some of the FluMist vaccines that the company has counted as "sold" haven't been used, and it is my understanding that a small amount of those vaccines may be returned for a refund if they are not used during this flu season. Thanks for your thoughts on this issue!