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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (4521)	12/8/2003 12:43:14 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108733

natgas at 6.61 (probably nearby futures contract) / jw

To: isopatch who wrote (4521)	12/8/2003 12:52:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108733

CNBC interview of Robt Hormatz (Goldman Sux ViceChairman) serious concern of US trade gap, current account deficit also, foreign central banks are rebalancing away from the US$ and into other major currencies like the EURO the threat is to USTBonds, and not to stocks since foreign investors primarily hold bonds (45% of USTBonds, 25% of corp bonds, 12% of stocks) US$ decline is not a concern now later it could result in higher interest rates it could cause higher price inflation, which is low now higher imported product prices could occur later on inflation pressures are there the winners are US exporters from increased competitiveness e.g. hightech also, multinationals benefit from conversion on foreign operations if the effect hits import prices, they could go up a lot and hurt companies like WalMart which would hit toys, shoes, textiles however, if the USDollar must decline in order to rectify the trade deficit, then it must decline to a considerable further extent / jim p.s. ME he fails to address the mortgage effect, the agency convexity effect (resulting in FannyMae sales of hedged positions), and the entire issue of reduced Asian willingness to finance a crippled economy