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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (2998)	12/8/2003 4:18:01 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think it's possible for Greeny to raise interest rates at this point. At least not "For the foreseeable future". Like November of next year. What we're going to get is reflation or inflation, take your pick. Noland's credit bubble bulletin of last week has a nice piece on farm reflation, and its probable consequences (including finally leaking into the CPI). Strange surges going to happen everywhere. Look at the energy futures today. Bottom line is it's going to be a strange and uncharted path. Be prepared to change course, but it's again time to love wheat, silver and everything else mundane but real. Just my opinion. CD

To: mishedlo who wrote (2998)	12/8/2003 10:33:01 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 110194

Mish, 2004 offers the prospect of another spending incentive, that in the form of the accelerated depreciation write-off for capital investment before year end 2004 (first tues in Nov. to be exact -g-). The policy was written explicitly to prop up the economy in 2004 by borrowing from 2005, and I think the market will get dragged up with it. At the least, I don't think the market can be sold effectively in this environment. I'm even willing to entertain the idea that valuations can again inflate to absurd levels. Since foreign policy can be sold through deception, why shouldn't the markets also lose contact with reality? The cloud on the horizon for me is the new threat of european tariffs in retaliation for the negative ruling on offshore corporations. This is scheduled to begin in Spring, I believe.