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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (54651)	1/3/2004 11:59:20 PM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 54805

Personal Portfolio Survey of G & K Thread: 12/2003 Methods: Personal portfolios were submitted voluntarily, and at random, for 2 weeks in December, 2003. Nearly all of the submissions came from the Moderated Thread. Individual stock selections were enrolled into an Excel spreadsheet, and weighted according to the data submitted. Cash, mutual funds, and groupings unidentified (ie, “2% biotech basket”) were arbitrarily lumped as “other/cash”, as they represented potential reserves with which to purchase a gorilla/king tech equity. There were 17 portfolios submitted. These results are better than 95% accurate, but not perfect. Question #1: What do you own? The 10 Most Widely Held (%) 12/03 11/00 4/00 11/99 QCOM 100 90 87 96 CASH 44 66 55 32 NTAP 44 73 70 20 CSCO 41 46 54 49 ARMHY 41 nil nil nil CREE 35 44 57 18 RMBS 29 21 6 4 SEBL 29 48 64 13 INTC 29 25 25 21 EMC 24 36 26 34 Top 10 Most Heavily Held (%) for the entire Thread Portfolio (pooled results) 12/03 11/00 4/00 11/99 QCOM 36 24 24 44 CASH 20 18 10 4 ARMHY 5 nil nil nil CSCO 5 5 7 6 NTAP 4 7 7 1 INTC 4 2 2 1 CREE 4 4 5 1 SEBL 3 6 6 1 RMBS 3 1 nil nil EMC 2 3 1 3 Discussion/conclusions: 1. QCOM remains both the most widely and heavily held. 100% of participants hold QCOM. 2. CASH remains very important, although more of it is now invested than 3 years ago. 3. ARMHY, RMBS, are stocks on the rise in the Survey; and represent “gorilla candidates”, as thread members continue to search for riskier, but more rewarding holdings. ARMHY surprises me because it received so little mention in the past. 4. JDSU, MSFT, SUNW, GMST, and to a lesser extent, SEBL have declined heavily. 5. Surprisingly, SNDK was held by just one participant, although highly successful in 2003. This may be a very good example of thread participants staying away from non-gorillas, or princes. Yet other stocks generated investment interest, including EBAY, PMCS, BEAS, BRCM, JUPR, CTXS, as well as gdichaz’s Chinese internet basket. <g> Question #2: ”What is the single most important thing I’ve learned about stock investing the past 3 years”? The most common answer was “ignorance”. Never expected analysts, brokerage houses, CEOs to blatantly lie; never expected the Bear to be as brutal and as long as it was; never understood the historic patterns of ‘bubbles’. Beware the “unthinkable”. This was followed next by Valuation, and having a better appreciation for it. Question #3: “Should you perceive the makings of another bubble, please describe your exit strategy as it currently exists?” Of the 18 responders on exit strategy, I found it surprising that fully 50% indicated they had no discernible exit strategy. A few indicated they would sell as a bubble burst, and go to cash. There was important mention of asset allocation for retirement planning; and to stick to a disciplined approach so as to sell when objectives are met and to be willing to take profits along the way. I would like to thank everybody for their generous submissions and the words of support in public and by PM I have received. I hope and invite threadmates to discuss these results. As always, it is a privilege to participate here. Apollo