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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_F_Shepard who wrote (506077)	12/8/2003 5:03:02 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Respond to of 769667

Forecasters See Strong Growth in Ad Spending Next Year By STUART ELLIOTT The forecasts, made today at the opening session of the 31st annual UBS Media Week Conference, are the most recent in a skein of upbeat predictions signaling a possible end of the advertising industry recession both in the United States and abroad. The industry's downturn since the bursting of the dot-com bubble has been one of the worst on record, including the first decline in American ad spending in a decade and the largest one-year domestic decline since the Depression. Robert J. Coen, senior vice president and forecasting director at Universal McCann in New York, a leading media agency, increased his forecast for domestic ad spending growth for next year to $266.4 billion from a projection of $263.8 billion he offered in June. That would compare with his estimated final figure for 2003 of $249.2 billion, an increase of 5.2 percent from 2002, and it would mean that the new, larger estimate for next year would result in a 6.9 percent gain compared with this year versus his previous forecast for growth of 6.5 percent. For ad spending growth overseas, however, Mr. Coen shaved his estimate slightly, to $231.9 billion, from the f $232.1 billion he forecast six months ago. That would still represent an increase of 4.5 percent from his final estimate for 2003 of $221.9 billion. This year turned into "a pretty good year despite all the uncertainty," Mr. Coen said, adding that he was "pretty optimistic about 2004 for a number of reasons." Among them, he listed the so-called quadrennial effect, in which spending on presidential advertising and Summer Olympics campaigns lifts marketing budgets; the comeback in spending for ads on the Internet; the potential that the expansion of the American economy is now "sustainable," and increased spending by advertisers in big categories like automobiles, drugs and movies. Mr. Coen, who has been tracking advertising spending trends for more than 50 years, is known for being optimistic. But this time he is being joined in his upward revisions by Lauren Rich Fine, who follows advertising stocks for Merrill Lynch & Company; executives from the newspaper and television industries, and John Perriss, chief executive at the ZenithOptimedia Group, a large media agency in London. Mr. Perriss, who spoke after Mr. Coen at the opening session of the conference, predicted that United States ad spending in 2004 would increase 5.1 percent from 2003. Previously, he had forecast an increase of 5 percent. "Things have looked a little better, stronger, here in the U.S.," Mr. Perriss said, adding that a big reason for his more upbeat forecast was the emergence of signs of renewed "corporate confidence" rather than indications that consumers, who have been propelling the American economy forward for several years, are still willing to spend heavily. Mr. Perriss said he agreed with Mr. Coen that the recovery in ad spending "has been driven almost entirely by the big advertisers." As he began his remarks, Mr. Perriss noted that he was "continuing the theme of optimism" first sounded by Mr. Coen. Usually, he is somewhat more reticent than Mr. Coen to predict robust upturns and less reticent to forecast large downturns. This time, though, they were somewhat more in sync.