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To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/8/2003 7:37:50 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793601
 
Andrew Sullivan
DEPT OF YEAH, RIGHT: "The decision by Mr. Gore seems likely to help Dr. Dean rebut what has been one of the biggest charges raised by his opponents: That he is a weak candidate who would lead the Democrats to a devastating defeat next year. Mr. Gore has repeatedly said that his top priority next year is helping the Democratic party defeat Mr. Bush." - analysis from The New York Times.
- 6:05:28 PM

GORE BACKS DEAN: If that doesn't stop the Dean campaign in its tracks, what will? Did Gephardt put Gore up to this? Did Kerry? Did Soros?
andrewsullivan.com



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/8/2003 9:13:32 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793601
 
Atlantic Unbound | December 3, 2003

Interviews

Life in Mugabe-ville

Samantha Power, the author of "How to Kill a Country," describes Zimbabwe's descent into chaos

.....

Spend just one hour with human-rights activist, lawyer, scholar, and writer Samantha Power, and you're bound to come away either exhausted or exhilarated. Power doesn't just move through the moments of her life—she spins, attending to a whirlwind of events with the energy of a kid at recess and the deliberation of a seasoned diplomat. During a recent visit to her office at the Carr Center for Human Rights at Harvard, I watched Power juggle a multitude of matters in our sixty-minute interview. Among these were a phone call from the campaign of presidential hopeful Wesley Clark, the requests of eager students who'd lined up in the hall for a slice of her coveted office hours, and preparations for an afternoon trip to New York for her mother's birthday. Throughout our conversation, Power's assistant knocked on the door several times, always with an "urgent" request. Power handled these interruptions with complete calm, in each instance returning to our conversation with unflagging vigor. On the subject of human rights, Power talks with a rare breed of passion that is impossible to miss. And her work ethic is equally impressive. It's been said that during blustery Boston winters, she often keeps the temperature in her office at 80 degrees. That way, when the heat turns off in the evening she'll still have enough warmth built up to work until the wee hours of the morning.

Combining that passion and work ethic with a deft analytical mind, Power has chosen to focus her thinking primarily on war and genocide. "I find myself most drawn to places where the stakes seem really high in terms of human life," she says, "toward places where there are the largest numbers of preventable deaths." In 2002, Power's book, A Problem From Hell: America in the Age of Genocide, explored America's tragic inaction in several instances of preventable death, and won her a Pulitzer Prize. The book in part grew out of Power's September 2001 Atlantic article, "Bystanders to Genocide: Why the United States Let the Rwanda Tragedy Happen," which won a National Magazine Award for public interest.

In "How to Kill a Country" (December Atlantic), Power returns to Africa. This time, she has written about the latest tragedy on there: Zimbabwe. Independent from Britain since 1980, Zimbabwe is a fertile land that has long been considered the "breadbasket" of Africa. Yet in just the past five years, Zimbabwe's liberation leader, president Robert Mugabe, has managed to bring his country to chaos. Power spent a month in Zimbabwe last summer and then wrote a chilling analysis of the "all-systems assault" that Mugabe has launched against his own people. Power observes that Mugabe has compiled a veritable "how-to manual on national destruction" and has demonstrated "how much damage one man can do, very quickly."

Power argues that destroying a country Mugabe-style involves the following ten "steps":

Destroy the engine of productivity
Bury the truth
Crush dissent
Legislate the impossible
Teach hate
Scare off foreigners
Invade a neighbor
Ignore a deadly enemy
Commit genocide
Blame the imperialists
At the center of the destructive campaign is Mugabe's redistribution of farmland from white farmers to blacks. "Redistribution" in this case means outright stealing, which has turned thousands of fertile acres into fallow land under the mismanaging hands of Mugabe's cronies, who have received the farms as gifts for loyalty. It is a move that has devastated Zimbabwe's productivity, pushing much of the country to the brink of starvation. Land reform has been an issue ever since the civil war that led to Zimbabwe's independence in 1980, but almost no one agrees that Mugabe's solution is doing anything but wrecking the country's valuable resources. Last March, Zimbabweans voted Mugabe out of office, only to see him rig the results and jail the winner (Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the "Movement for Democratic Change") on charges of treason. Held completely unaccountable for his actions by local, regional, and international forces, Mugabe has made victims of the very people whose independence he fought to win just twenty years ago. "Every day I was in Zimbabwe," Power says, "I would ask myself, 'how is society going to be here tomorrow when I wake up?' Things have got to change."

I spoke with her on November 3 and 12.

—Steve Grove

[Note: "How to Kill a Country" is not yet available online, but is available on the newsstand in the December issue.]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are many places in the world where you could go to explore the violation of human rights. Why did you choose Zimbabwe?

The alarm bells are ringing in Zimbabwe right now in a way that they aren't ringing in many other countries in the world. And in the other countries where they are ringing, we already seem to be involved: Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea. Zimbabwe, it seemed to me, was very likely to get left off the foreign-policy agenda. So it seemed like a good time, with a crisis unfolding, to draw our attention to this tragedy.

But there was another reason I was interested in Zimbabwe. One of the most provocative and intriguing claims in human rights in the last decade is the claim of Nobel Prize-winner Amartya Sen that no country with a free press has ever had a famine: essentially that civil and political rights are what enable social and economic welfare. For a leader to have economic policies that cause mass poverty for his people, and to have 30 percent of the population infected by HIV—and for the local press not to be able to put pressure on him to alleviate these problems—that's a very dire situation. So it seemed like it would be useful—not just for Zimbabwe but for other countries—to try to understand the interplay between these forces.

Foreign journalists have been banned from Zimbabwe since February. How did you get into the country, and how did you manage once inside?

You know, we journalists sometimes mythologize the dangers of our movements, creating images of "deep throat" meetings in a variety of settings. When I went to Zimbabwe I was definitely afraid, because of all I heard. I had all my contacts buried in very discreet places in my baggage. I expected to get searched, and I expected my itinerary to come under scrutiny. But when I walked in it was like, "hey, mon." Literally, there was a sign that said "Tourists," and so I went through that. It's a lot harder if you're a photographer, especially if you're a video photographer. But print journalists can easily get in.

In terms of getting around, initially I was very careful. I was worried about being followed, so I stayed out of the city and out of the main hotels and took a variety of precautions. But it got to the point where I started to be a little bolder. I wanted to see the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai (pronounced chang-er-rai), so even though I knew that his house would be watched, going there was a risk worth taking. There were enough foreigners and enough Caucasians in the country that I could have been an NGO worker, a lawyer, a local white—there were a lot of things I could have been. But what never got easy was actually getting people to trust that they would be secure in talking to me. I could get people to talk to me at length about their frustration and suffering, but when it came to taking names and so on, there was still a real fear that there would be accountability issues.

You knew you were headed for a country that was in bad shape, but what surprised you about Zimbabwe?

I'd never been to Zimbabwe before, and I'd been hearing so much about how awful and screwed up the place was. So I was actually shocked at how much possibility was there. The fertility of the land, the industriousness of the people, the education and the literacy, the role of religion and sense of community that was still maintained... all of this really blew me away.

Of course the corollary to that is the enormous lengths that someone had to go to screw a place like Zimbabwe up. And so that was the second thing that surprised me—the "all-systems assault" Mugabe has launched. The inflation was so bad that I had to carry the cost of one night's stay at a guest house—maybe fifteen U.S. dollars—in a pillowcase: it was that many bills. I've been to a lot of countries that are going through or have just been through war or genocide, but I've never been to a peacetime country where civilians are suffering as they are in Zimbabwe. And again, this is all the more striking because you can see that it doesn't have to be that way. Sometimes, you go to a country and it's so overpopulated or it's so poor that you know that the cycle of despair is very long-standing, and it's hard to find hope. But in Zimbabwe, this turn of events is so recent, so rapid. It wasn't long ago that Zimbabweans considered themselves to be the success story of southern Africa.

It seems almost insane, the lengths Mugabe has gone to destroy his own country. Your piece points out that after independence, Mugabe was initially doing some positive things for Zimbabwe, including an education drive that brought the literacy rate up to 85 percent. But then, in the past five years, he's begun this wholesale destruction of his country. I'm confused. What exactly happened to Mugabe?

Yeah, that's something I didn't try to explain in the piece. First, destruction like this tends to happen incrementally. Shockingly incrementally. Of course Mugabe didn't write a manual called "I want to destroy my country." So what happened is that at a certain point, something became more pressing to him than the welfare of his country—and I think that's personal power.

When he took over, Mugabe built on the education system and the transport system, and built up the infrastructure of Zimbabwe. But the war veterans who'd helped him win the country's independence in 1980 were not compensated for their sacrifices. Through the 1980s and 1990s, they were clamoring for compensation, which Mugabe had promised them. Meanwhile, Mugabe had surprised many by allowing the white farmers—often seen as vestiges of England's colonial rule—to maintain their farms. As time wore on, these white farmers appeared to sort of be "living high on the hog." This became politically embarrassing for Mugabe.

Then Mugabe invaded the Congo: a single decision with big consequences. He sent troops to the Congo partly to try "African solutions for African problems," but once he got there, the spoils of war became everything. Army officers took what they wanted, and Mugabe had to hold his cronies at bay back at home—they ran the country's ministries and were the people who could challenge his power. So he started to buy them off with these spoils. Well, then the still-living veterans from the war of liberation said, "wait a second, how come the veterans of this blunderous war in the Congo get these jewels and riches, and we're still left seventeen years after liberation with nothing?"

So in a sense, the invasions of white farms were Mugabe's attempt to kill three birds with one stone—to get the war veterans off his back, to further satisfy his cronies, and to get rid of the white farmers, who had begun teaming up with the black opposition as a political force. So I think you can see there is no one answer to how Mugabe became this way—he certainly didn't roll up his sleeves one day and say, "I've had enough of running the jewel of Africa, now I want my country to become the joke of Africa." But everything sort of fed on itself, and the only unifying theme through it all is his personal power. Power comes first, second, third, and last—and nothing can stand in its way.

One of the casualties of Mugabe's personal power struggle that you mention is the Daily News, an independent newspaper in Zimbabwe. Once an important voice of dissent, their printing presses were bombed in January 2001; then this past September Mugabe denied the paper a license to print, shutting it down. If Amartya Sen's claim is true—that a free press will always provide the dissent necessary to prevent a famine—then this development is especially troubling. Did you meet any Daily News reporters while you were in Zimbabwe? Are they hopeful that they'll find a way to start up again?

Yes, I met a lot of them. The Daily News was the liberalization force. I don't think any of them were really prepared for this ploy by Mugabe. They would say, "I don't know why he lets us publish," but then they would say, "He has to let us publish."

I've been in e-mail touch with some of them since I've come back. They're pretty much on their own—they're fighting it out in court. Some sound very relieved in the most basic sense to still be getting paid their salaries. The publisher and the owner have taken it upon themselves to keep people afloat.

When the Daily News was operating, did it reach the rural areas of Zimbabwe?

Generally, the rural areas are still pretty cut off—and they're very dependent on state television and radio, which are of course in Mugabe's hands. There is the sense that Mugabe has given up on the cities, but that the rural areas are still his stronghold. Rural Zimbabwe voted with Mugabe in the presidential election; even their parliamentary seats went to Mugabe's party. So that's the key—Zimbabweans in the city say that's where they have to get their message.

And that's the irony of the international aid programs like the World Food Program: the rural areas are more likely to be fed by international aid givers than people in the cities, which appeases some of the discontent that might be brewing out there, in terms of malnutrition and so on. This helps Mugabe to keep the rural areas at bay.

It all feeds on itself. The activists in the cities, who are strong MDC supporters, might have wanted to ship the Daily News to rural areas. But because there's no money, and because there's no fuel being imported because the state has such a huge external debt and doesn't have the foreign currency to buy fuel, the activists' means of transport—of literally getting out there to sow unrest and expose people to a new way of thinking—has been taken away by the economic hardships. So it's this quasi-stalemate.

Mugabe has also attacked the other source of dissent you mention, the MDC. Despite winning the last election by all "unofficial counts," Tsvangirai is in court battling charges of treason. Does the MDC have a chance as the future of Zimbabwe's government?

Everyone you meet who isn't in the ruling party wants a change in Zimbabwe, so they're all invested in the MDC. The MDC has positioned itself as a "come one, come all" kind of umbrella coalition—and that's what's scary. Teachers, farm laborers, shopkeepers, Ndebele speakers, Shona speakers, white farmers... it's huge. Too huge, of course, to be a governing body. If the MDC was tasked with governance, the divisions among its constituents would make themselves apparent, and many would feel betrayed. So I guess one of my fears is that all civil society groups have been completely absorbed by the MDC. If the MDC does finally defeat Mugabe and come to power but appoints all the civil-society leaders in government, then who's there to keep Tsvangirai honest? The fear is that again, the society will invest all its hopes in one man. It's dangerous. One of the ways to inoculate Tsvangirai from Mugabe-style tendencies would be for civil-society organizations to be developing independent of the political party. And right now, that's not happening.

Despite those problems, you mention your admiration of the many Zimbabweans who are speaking out against their leader. Given that 70,000 people, according to Amnesty International, were killed or tortured by Mugabe last year, aren't Zimbabweans afraid? What fuels this voice of dissent?

I asked myself that same question, because it is striking, given the brutality, that people remain willing to take tremendous risks. I think right now that hope lies in history. In many cases people have a fresh memory of prosperity, and of basic respect for their rights. I mean, Mugabe's crackdown on the country is so new that I think that a lot of the protest is incredulity, it's "what's happening?" In addition, there's a huge Zimbabwean exile community or émigré community abroad, which reminds those who've stayed behind that not everyone is living as they are, hand to mouth, or without the ability to speak out. I think these things have emboldened Zimbabweans and caused them to reject the inevitability of what's being done to them.

On the other hand, one of the impressions I got in Zimbabwe that I didn't write about in the piece was the patience of the people. You see people waiting in these bank lines that go around block after block after block—they're waiting to take out money that is no longer worth anything, money that basically just pays for their bus fare home. And they're there the next morning to wait again. And so there's a strange endurance. It's a weird combination, I think, of expectation for something better but patience with something quite dire.

Patience? How?

Maybe the patience comes from the belief that this can't continue. The whole country is frozen in this moment of expectancy. No one believes it can get worse. How can you get worse than 80 percent unemployment? How can you get worse than 500 percent inflation, and rising every day? How can you get worse than having your highest bank note so devalued that it doesn't even buy you a loaf of bread? They've never experienced anything like this before, so they just assume it can change. It's got to change!

Even after all of this intimidation—the posting of armed agents at the polling stations, arrests, torture, shutting down the newspapers—they know they still defeated Mugabe in the election last year. They voted the MDC into office in all the major cities and then basically voted Morgan Tsvangirai in as president. That not only shocked Mugabe—that shocked Zimbabwean voters. They realized, "Whoa, we are a force." So the country right now contains parallel universes: one is the universe as it ought to be, and the other is the universe as it is, which is Mugabe-ville. In Mugabe-ville, none of the facts that they've created on the ground have translated into much. So the people feel like, "Well, we won the elections, so we're just waiting for the world to come around and recognize it."
END OF PART ONE



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/9/2003 4:10:42 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793601
 
In Iraq we were over, now we get accused of being over in North Korea.

N. Korea's Nuclear Success Is Doubted
Experts question U.S. claims about the North's atomic abilities, warning a showdown based on dubious evidence could further damage trust.
By Douglas Frantz
LA Times Staff Writer

December 9, 2003

SEOUL — The Bush administration has asserted in recent months that North Korea possesses one or two nuclear bombs and is rapidly developing the means to make more. The statements have raised anxiety about a nuclear arms race in Asia and the possibility that terrorists could obtain atomic weapons from the North Korean regime.

But the administration's assessment rests on meager fresh evidence and limited, sometimes dated, intelligence, according to current and former U.S. and foreign officials.

Outside the administration, and in some quiet corners within it, there is nothing close to a consensus that North Korean scientists have succeeded in fabricating atomic bombs from plutonium, as the CIA concluded in a document made public last month.

Independent experts and some U.S. officials also are skeptical of administration claims that North Korea is within months of manufacturing material for more weapons at a secret uranium-enrichment plant.

Interviews with more than 30 current and former intelligence officials and diplomats in Asia, Europe and the United States provide an in-depth look at the development of North Korea's nuclear program, the regime's elaborate efforts to conceal it and the behind-the-scenes debate over how much danger it poses.

According to these officials:

• The U.S. has failed to find the North Korean plant that the Bush administration says will soon start producing highly enriched uranium.

• North Korea's attempts to reprocess plutonium recently hit a roadblock, raising new questions about its technical capabilities.

• China rushed 40,000 troops to its border with North Korea last summer after the U.S. warned that the regime of Kim Jong Il might try to smuggle "a grapefruit-size" quantity of plutonium out of the country. No signs of smuggling have been discovered.

The doubts about U.S. intelligence come as the administration engages in a high-wire diplomatic battle over its demand that North Korea dismantle its nuclear program and open the country to inspectors.

Six-country negotiations aimed at resolving the nuclear crisis could resume later this month or early next year. In what some see as a bid for backing from the other parties — China, Japan, Russia and South Korea — the U.S. has portrayed North Korea as a global threat.

Its language is reminiscent of administration rhetoric before the Iraq war, as is the worry in some quarters that the U.S. is exaggerating the danger to galvanize world opinion against another regime in what President Bush termed an "axis of evil."

Even officials and experts who question the administration's latest conclusions acknowledge that there is ample evidence that North Korea is trying to develop atomic weapons.

But they say that walking into another confrontation based on dubious evidence could make the danger seem more rhetorical than real and could further damage trust in U.S. intelligence.

The administration's claims about Iraqi unconventional weapons, which have yet to be verified by evidence on the ground, were based on intelligence that seems robust compared to what is available about North Korea.

Recruiting spies there is almost impossible. Military installations are hidden in thousands of tunnels. Few significant defectors have emerged from a country where disloyalty is punishable by death and families left behind face labor camps or worse.

So the U.S. depends heavily on intercepted conversations, satellite images and intelligence from foreign governments — sources that many current and former officials say do not bridge the gap between suspicion and proof.

North Korea's own statements have been contradictory. The regime has said it possesses a "nuclear deterrent," but has also rejected U.S. assertions about its capabilities.

Charles Pritchard, who resigned last summer as a State Department special envoy on North Korean nuclear matters, said the U.S. is in the dark on essential aspects of the North's nuclear effort.

"We don't know what they're doing," he said.

Doubts about the credibility of U.S. intelligence are focused on two frightening allegations. In written answers to questions from a Senate committee, the CIA said recently — and for the first time — that North Korea had produced nuclear bombs from plutonium and had mastered the technology for making more.

The agency provided the answers in August. They became public last month when the Federation of American Scientists, a private arms-control organization, posted them on its Web site (www.fas.org).

"We assess that North Korea has produced one or two simple fission-type nuclear weapons and has validated the designs without conducting yield- producing nuclear tests," the CIA said.

Months earlier, a top administration official said North Korea was close to producing bomb material through a separate process of enriching uranium.

The official, Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly, told a Senate committee in March that North Korea was within months of being able to manufacture weapons-grade uranium.

Kelly's statement assumed more rapid technical progress by North Korea than had previous assessments. An unclassified CIA report from November 2002 said that the North was working on an enrichment plant capable of starting production "as soon as 2005."

Kelly's remark raised concern because enriching uranium would give the North a second avenue for weapons production and one easier to conceal than plutonium reprocessing.

Analysts said other reports within the U.S. intelligence community have been contradictory and inconclusive about North Korea's advances in both plutonium bomb-making and uranium enrichment.

To some, the wording of the CIA report shouted political considerations, not proof.

" 'We assess' means they concluded based upon a judgment of North Korean intent and capabilities," said Robert Gallucci, the Clinton administration's top negotiator with the North. "Those are political judgments."

A former Bush administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he suspected the recent statements were driven by politics. He described it as "a case of pleasing the bosses by telling them what they want to hear or analysts covering their backsides."

Still, some experts believe the U.S. has enough information to support its conclusion about North Korean nuclear capabilities.

"Through our close discussions with the United States, we are positive that nuclear weapons have been reached," said Kim Tae Hyo, a nonproliferation expert at a Seoul think tank.

Bill Harlow, the chief CIA spokesman, declined to discuss the information underlying the agency's recent conclusions. Nor would he respond to written questions.

Despite the doubts about U.S. intelligence, many experts advocate adopting the worst-case scenario because of the danger of underestimating North Korea.

"If we mean anything we say about weapons of mass destruction being the paramount security danger to our way of life, this is it," said Ashton B. Carter, an assistant secretary of Defense in the Clinton administration. "It doesn't get any bigger than this."

The weakness of U.S. intelligence on North Korea has been evident for years.

"The many unanswered questions regarding North Korea, including its nuclear program, all reflect an inadequate commitment to intelligence gathering for decades on the part of the U.S. government," said Keith Luse, a staff member for Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R.-Ind.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

In early 1995, Thomas Hubbard, a career U.S. diplomat, stood before a room filled with agents and analysts at CIA headquarters in Langley, Va.

Fresh from Pyongyang, the North's capital, where he had negotiated the release of a U.S. Army helicopter pilot shot down over North Korea, Hubbard had been invited to share his insights.

"There were about 200 people in the room, many of whom had spent their entire adult lives studying North Korea, and I realized none of them had ever been there," Hubbard, now U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said in a recent interview.

Donald P. Gregg, who was CIA station chief in South Korea and later U.S. ambassador to that country, calls North Korea "the longest-running intelligence failure in U.S. history." He recalled an encounter last year with a North Korean official.

"I told him that we'd recruited people in Russia, Iraq and other countries, but we never turned a North Korean," said Gregg, chairman of the Korea Society, a foundation in New York that promotes U.S.-Korean ties. "He puffed out his chest and smiled."

The limits of U.S. intelligence were driven home in May 1999.

Satellites had picked up extensive tunneling at Mt. Kumchangri near Yongbyon, the center of the North's nuclear facilities.

Before allowing U.S. officials and technicians inside the mountain, the North insisted on a donation of 500,000 metric tons of food. Once the demand was met, the team spent several days exploring the site before determining it was on a wild goose chase.

Other countries with a stake in the crisis have done little better.

China built a potent espionage network inside North Korea when it was the North's chief benefactor during the Cold War. But as the North grew wary of its neighbor's aims, Chinese agents were systematically imprisoned or executed over the last decade, according to intelligence officials in the region.

A senior foreign intelligence official said of the Chinese: "They are now blind."

The origins of North Korea's nuclear program and its ultra-secrecy lie in the Korean War. The U.S. bombed the country relentlessly, and historical archives show that Gen. Douglas MacArthur sought 26 atomic bombs to use against North Korean and possibly Chinese targets.

"The leaders were awed by U.S. aerial technology," said Lim Young Sun, a North Korean army officer who defected to South Korea several years ago. "Since then, they have been digging all the time."

Lim said he spent 13 years overseeing the boring of tunnels into mountains to conceal everything from aircraft hangars to uniform factories. "If war broke out today and the U.S. bombed all the facilities that they think produce military goods, production will continue," he said.

The fear bordering on paranoia that created a nation of moles did not end with the war in 1953. U.S. threats of nuclear attacks resurfaced periodically in the years that followed. Just five years ago, U.S. fighter-bombers simulated a long-range nuclear strike on North Korea.

The Soviet Union got North Korea started in the nuclear business in the 1950s by helping to build an experimental nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, about 60 miles north of Pyongyang. About 200 North Korean scientists were trained at Soviet nuclear institutes.

U.S. spy satellites detected work on a larger reactor at Yongbyon in the 1980s. The discovery created enough international pressure to persuade North Korea to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985.

In a pattern that would be repeated, the North stalled for seven years before inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency were allowed to examine its nuclear facilities.

The first inspection team arrived in May 1992. Providing new details of the mission, diplomats said that team members quickly suspected the Koreans were lying about how much plutonium had been extracted from fuel rods at Yongbyon.

Plutonium is a man-made element that must be extracted from irradiated reactor fuel for use in weapons. Records provided by the North Koreans said they had reprocessed 30 fuel rods and produced 90 grams of plutonium — a fraction of the amount needed for a single bomb — after the plant was shut down for three months in 1989.

The IAEA analysis of laboratory data indicated the reactor had been stopped four times and that the North Koreans had extracted enough plutonium for one or two bombs. Depending on technical capability and desired yield, a bomb requires 4 to 8 kilograms of plutonium.

Inspectors suspected the plutonium was buried in a waste dump camouflaged by new soil and freshly planted trees outside the complex. Suspicions also focused on a nearby building believed to be a reprocessing plant.

The inspectors demanded access to both sites. The North Koreans refused.

The IAEA, stung by its failure to discover Iraq's secret nuclear program before the 1991 Persian Gulf War, asked the U.N. Security Council for permission to carry out a special inspection of the North's suspicious facilities. The permission was granted, but the North still refused and in April 1994 threatened to expel the inspectors and withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty.

The U.S. circulated petitions seeking U.N. sanctions and developed contingency plans for military strikes on Yongbyon.

Then former President Jimmy Carter went to Pyongyang at the invitation of the North Koreans and with President Clinton's approval. He persuaded the North Koreans to freeze nuclear activities and open talks with Washington.

This led to a deal known as the Agreed Framework later in 1994. North Korea promised to shut down Yongbyon and stop construction on two larger plutonium-producing reactors. It also agreed not to reprocess the 8,000 irradiated rods it had withdrawn from the fuel core at Yongbyon.

In return, Washington pledged to provide two light- water reactors to replace the mothballed plutonium reactors and to donate 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil annually until the new reactors started producing electricity.

Without the freeze, U.S. officials estimated that North Korea could have produced enough plutonium for 60 to 100 bombs within a few years. But the deal did not answer the question of how much plutonium North Korea had already reprocessed.

The IAEA inspectors remained to monitor the freeze at known nuclear sites, but were forbidden to visit the dump or other suspicious locations.

As a result, the estimate by IAEA scientists that the North had enough plutonium for one or two bombs in 1992 remains the best information. It is the foundation of the recent CIA assessment that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, according to several former officials.

IAEA officials, however, won't hazard a guess as to whether the North has actually made bombs.

"It would be irresponsible on our part to make any judgment," said Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the IAEA. "We know they have enough spent fuel for at least a couple of weapons. If they have reprocessed, then obviously they have enough plutonium for a number of weapons, but we do not know."

Almost immediately after the Agreed Framework was negotiated, there were signs that North Korea was violating the pact. Suspicions focused on craters from 100 nonnuclear explosive tests identified by satellite.

A plutonium bomb requires an implosion of a fissionable shell into a critical mass. The U.S. suspected the tests were to define implosion characteristics and perfect a detonator, according to experts who viewed the intelligence reports.

There also were hints that North Korea was trying to develop uranium-enrichment facilities. In early 2001, South Korean intelligence told the CIA that defectors and an agent in the North claimed such a program had started a few years before, according to a senior foreign intelligence officer and a U.S. official.

The preferred method of enriching uranium involves spinning uranium hexafluoride gas at high speeds in specially designed centrifuges, slim cylinders about 5 feet high. The result is enriched uranium that can fuel a reactor or, if processed into highly enriched uranium, or HEU, can make a bomb.

The process requires years of development, but enriched uranium offers certain advantages. For instance, reprocessing plutonium requires large facilities easily spotted by satellite.

Uranium enrichment, on the other hand, can be conducted in smaller facilities easily concealed in tunnels or nondescript buildings. HEU is easier to smuggle than plutonium because it's less radioactive and therefore less likely to be detected.

In June 2002, the CIA distributed a report to President Bush that stirred further concern. It said Pakistan, in return for ballistic missiles, had given North Korea centrifuge technology and data on how to build and test nuclear weapons based on enriched uranium.

Pakistan has denied providing the technology. The Bush administration has said any such assistance has stopped.

In July 2002, the administration has said, it received intelligence that North Korea's enrichment program was much larger than was earlier suspected.

The information indicated that North Korea was obtaining "many, many more" centrifuges than previously thought, according to Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage's testimony before a Senate committee last February. By September 2002, North Korea had "embarked on a production program" for HEU, Armitage quoted an intelligence memo as stating.

Kelly, the assistant secretary of State, went to Pyongyang in early October 2002. He confronted the North Koreans with the suspicions on the first day of talks. First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju acknowledged that the government was working on enriching uranium, according to U.S. officials.

The North Korean government denied that Kang made such an admission.

The Bush administration declared the Agreed Framework dead. North Korea retaliated by kicking out the IAEA inspectors on New Year's Eve, disabling monitoring equipment at its nuclear sites and announcing its withdrawal from the nonproliferation treaty.

The second North Korea nuclear crisis had started, but this time the international community was without a window on the country.

The chief reason that many doubt the administration's conclusion that the North may soon produce highly enriched uranium is that the enrichment plant has not been found.

"That plant could be anywhere or nowhere," said a senior foreign diplomat familiar with the latest intelligence.

Gallucci, the Clinton administration negotiator, said North Korea is probably years, not months, away from producing enough HEU for a weapon.

"If we are insisting on the North Koreans taking certain steps to give up this program, we ought to know what we are asking them to do," said Gallucci, co-author of an upcoming book on North Korea, "Going Critical."

Robert S. Norris, a nuclear expert at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, said it was unlikely that North Korea was close to producing more than a speck of highly enriched uranium. He said similar mistakes had been made in overestimating Soviet military power. "In the vacuum of ignorance, fear fills it up pretty fast," he said.

There is also skepticism about the plutonium reprocessing and North Korean technical competence in general.

The U.S. said in March that the regime could produce "significant plutonium" within six months. But a senior foreign intelligence official told The Times that technical difficulties had recently stopped the reprocessing.

Some experts argue that despite doubts about the CIA's assessments, the mere prospect of nuclear arms in the hands of an unpredictable, militarized regime requires a tough response.

North Korea is desperate for cash to feed its population of 22 million and maintain its million-man army. Its chief source of hard currency is selling missiles and related technology to such countries as Iran and Libya. U.S. intelligence officials said North Korea also earns tens of millions of dollars a year selling heroin and other drugs on the international market.

Some suggest that trafficking in atomic weapons is a logical next step.

"North Korea is completely amoral, internationally adrift and desperate for dollars," said Joseph Cirincione, director of the nonproliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "For the United States, the No. 1 concern is not that North Korea would attack the U.S. with a nuclear weapon, but that it would sell a nuclear weapon to someone who would."

Others said there is no evidence of contacts between North Korea and terrorists and that Pyongyang recognizes selling nuclear material or weapons could provoke U.S. retaliation on a scale its people have feared for 50 years.

"Nobody can cross the red line," said the senior foreign intelligence official. "That would mean annihilation."
latimes.com



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/9/2003 5:00:17 AM
From: unclewest  Respond to of 793601
 
This notion that they want to kill only Christians and Jews is risible.

Ever since their words have become actions, I have been unable to see the humor.

They want to kill all of us, not because of our religion or our lack of it

I do feel much better now that I know that you know that you too are a target.

I almost agree that it seems they want to kill all of us. Actually, they want to kill all American men 13 and older. That is IAW various Mullahs' interpretations of the Koran.
It seems the killing of women and children in large numbers, as in Bali and NYC, is ok as long as they kill some men too.

I do understand (but disagree with) your argument about why we should not allow this to be called a religious war. That is the GWB position too. I do find it silly to ignore the fact that 150 million militant Muslims are supporting what they believe to be a religious war against America, Israel and our allies. To a man, the 15 million Muslim extremists on the front lines around the world, believe they are fighting a religious war.

Boykin recognized the militant Muslim premises that they worship a greater God than Christians and Jews (whoops...and atheists) and that Mecca and al-Aqsa are holier than Bethlehem and Rome. He challenged that premise on battlefields many times. He challenged it again in his own church. I still believe Boykin's assessment that this is a religious war is correct. 150 million Muslim militants agree with me.

Here are a few quotes from the Fatwah that is their call to battle.
Read them carefully.
See if you can find the religious component!
(Hint! It begins with the third word of the title.)

Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
World Islamic Front Statement

23 February 1998
All these crimes and sins committed by the Americans are a clear declaration of war on Allah, his messenger, and Muslims. And ulema have throughout Islamic history unanimously agreed that the jihad is an individual duty if the enemy destroys the Muslim countries. This was revealed by Imam Bin-Qadamah in "Al- Mughni," Imam al-Kisa'i in "Al-Bada'i," al-Qurtubi in his interpretation, and the shaykh of al-Islam in his books, where he said: "As for the fighting to repulse [an enemy], it is aimed at defending sanctity and religion, and it is a duty as agreed [by the ulema]. Nothing is more sacred than belief except repulsing an enemy who is attacking religion and life."

On that basis, and in compliance with Allah's order, we issue the following fatwa to all Muslims:

The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. This is in accordance with the words of Almighty Allah, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah."

We -- with Allah's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in Allah and wishes to be rewarded to comply with Allah's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson.



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/9/2003 7:19:56 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793601
 
The Almighty Dollar?
Why the dollar continues to do well in currency markets and where it's headed next.
by Irwin M. Stelzer
12/09/2003 12:00:00 AM
Irwin M. Stelzer is director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute, a columnist for the Sunday Times (London), a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, and a contributing writer to The Daily Standard.


WE WERE TAUGHT in graduate economics classes that if a country runs large and persistent trade deficits, the value of its currency will decline relative to the value of the currencies of its trading partners. Oh yes, other things being equal, of course. Then we entered the real world and found that other things are never equal.

Which may be why the dollar continued to levitate as America's trade deficit chalked up one record after another. We bought the world's goods--cars, sneakers, apparel--and in return sent out bits of paper with the pictures of American presidents printed on them. As the dollars flowed in increasing amounts to foreigners, economists waited in vain for the value of those dollars to drop, so that American goods would become cheaper overseas, and foreign goods more expensive here. That, they reasoned, would correct the trade imbalance.

But two things happened to prevent such a natural correction. First, Japan and China decided that their export-led economies can only grow by keeping their goods cheap in the United States. So the Chinese, formally, and the Japanese, less formally and less rigidly, tied the value of their currencies to the dollar to prevent them from appreciating.

Second, the world's investors continued their love affair with U.S. assets, and used their accumulating pile of dollars to buy American companies, shares, properties, and the government bonds being churned out by the Treasury to finance the mounting U.S. budget deficit.

NOT CONTENT to leave this situation alone, the Bush administration began to make noises about the overly strong dollar, and the need for its trading partners to let the value of their currencies rise. The White House also instituted protectionist measures to demonstrate its desire to reduce the imports that opposition politicians claim are destroying American jobs.

Simultaneously, the monetary policy gurus at the Federal Reserve Board announced that despite the accelerating recovery of the U.S. economy--growth at over 8 percent, productivity at the highest level in over 20 years, construction spending setting new records, the manufacturing sector expanding as new orders soar, consumer confidence rising--they would not raise interest rates for "a considerable period." This led foreign investors, always sensitive to signs of impending inflation, to wonder whether the dollars they were investing in America would depreciate in value, and whether the interest they might earn on those investments would fail to rise to compensate for renewed inflation.

SO THEY MORE OR LESS stopped investing in America. Capital inflows into the United States fell in September to one-tenth of the level of the previous month. As BusinessWeek put it, "The greenback's decline could turn into a rout. . . . Foreign investors are rebalancing their portfolios away from U.S. securities." That reduces the demand for dollars, and therefore their price.

Since China and Japan are intervening in currency markets to prevent the dollar from getting dearer in terms of their own currencies, the brunt of the readjustment is falling on the euro and sterling. And a heavy brunt it is. The euro is now above $1.20, a record, and the pound is above $1.70. That has made goods manufactured in Europe and Great Britain more expensive in America and, in the case of the eurozone, where domestic demand is weak, threatens to turn no-growth into slump.

So much for a brief history of how we have arrived at a dollar that is sinking, and will probably continue to do so. The important question is: So what?

FOR ONE THING, with imported goods more expensive, the competitive pressure on American manufacturers is reduced, permitting them to raise prices after a long period in which they had lost pricing power. For another, in order to attract foreign investment, interest rates will have to go up to make American assets more attractive--another way of saying that bond prices will have to fall. As Martin and Kathleen Feldstein, he a former chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, pointed out several years ago, "If--or when--foreigners decide that they don't want to lend so much to the United States, the dollar will decline, interest rates will rise, and inflation will increase." Bad news for bond holders, but good news for investment banks as their clients rush to borrow before interest rates go up.

That's not all. Oil prices have remained above the top of the OPEC cartel's target range of $28 per barrel. But producing nations are finding that they can buy less with their dollars. Whereas the Saudis would once have had to sell about 5,000 barrels of oil at the top of the cartel's price range in order to earn enough dollars to pay for a brief, £100,000 visit to their favorite haunt, London's Dorchester hotel, they now have to sell about 6,000 barrels at that same price to pay for enough sterling to cover the cost of their stay. So, they have in effect abandoned their $28 ceiling, and are keeping production low enough to support prices in excess of $30 to offset the reduced purchasing power of their dollars.

Bush asked for restraint. But Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi isn't restraint minded. So he used last week's OPEC meeting to announce, "The dollar is weakening, and purchasing power is quite weak, so [the current high price] is okay." After all, Naimi wouldn't want to risk his job, and possibly his neck, by allowing the living standards of the 5,000-7,000 Saudi princes to decline. Bad news for American consumers.

Still, the negative economic consequences of a continued fall in the dollar are unlikely to overwhelm the forces that are driving the U.S. economy forward. And if the decline does not become the "rout" that some are predicting, it should begin the healthy process of whittling away America's trade deficit.

weeklystandard.com



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/12/2003 9:40:14 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793601
 
One example cited repeatedly by U.S. officials to foreign governments is that the much-publicized SCUD missiles sent to Yemen from North Korea last December actually don’t work.

North Korea’s Nukes
Joel Mowbray
Townhall
December 12, 2003

Contrary to various media reports, the joint statement that almost resulted from the six-country talks concerning North Korea’s nukes is actually a victory of sorts for the “hawks” in the administration who favor taking a hard line against Pyongyang.

Notes one hawkish administration official familiar with the contents of the joint statement, “We got 80% of what we wanted.” The other 20%, the official explains, mostly consists of one point that institutionalizes the engagement, by calling for talks every other month.

What has attracted the most attention is the willingness of the U.S. to offer North Korea a written security guarantee in exchange for a scuttling of its nuclear program. Though this was seen—and intentionally spun by many senior administration officials—as a departure from past policy, it wasn’t.

The U.S. has long been willing to offer a security guarantee for a complete destruction of North Korea’s nuclear program—which is why Pyongyang immediately called the “offer” what it was: a restatement of current U.S. policy.

The language in the statement of principles—only opposed by China—is vague on the specifics of a security guarantee, in part a reflection of infighting within the administration on that very issue.

The careerists at the East Asian and Pacific Affairs (EAP) bureau at the State Department, who participated in the first round of talks in August, initially wanted the U.S. to offer a security guarantee as soon as Pyongyang would “commit” to scrapping its nuclear program. Given North Korea’s history—violating the 1994 pledge to halt all production of nukes—EAP’s proposal was not even seriously considered.

The new soft-line position is that the security guarantee should be offered once North Korea “credibly commits.” That language, in fact, has made it into the list of three recommendations now under consideration by the White House.

The hard-line option included in the list of possible recommendations is that the security guarantee only follows “complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantling” of the nuclear program. But as long as North Korea has even one civilian nuclear reactor—or refuses to grant complete, unfettered access to inspectors—such an exacting standard could probably not be achieved.

The “compromise” position is offering the security guarantee after inspectors “achieve verifiable benchmarks.” As one might expect with such vague wording, “verifiable benchmarks” could conceivably run the gamut from being little more than the first option—or little less than “complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantling.”

The White House seems headed in a hawkish direction. President Bush publicly has called for a “complete, irreversible verifiable” elimination of North Korea’s nuclear program—echoing the words chosen by the hawks.

According to one official familiar with the deliberations on the security guarantee, “Ultimately, the middle option will be chosen.”

Regardless of the timing of the security guarantee, the U.S. will continue to put the screws to Pyongyang. The Proliferation Security Initiative, which is designed to identify and seize materials related to non-conventional weapons, is targeted directly at North Korea’s exports and is in full force, according to several administration officials.

Because North Korea gets 20-40% of its hard currency from weapons sales, the U.S. has also waged a campaign to disinterest possible purchasers of North Korean exports.

One example cited repeatedly by U.S. officials to foreign governments is that the much-publicized SCUD missiles sent to Yemen from North Korea last December actually don’t work. So even though Yemen saved money buying from North Korea, it got nothing for its millions.

The pitch appears to be working; several Middle Eastern countries have already agreed not to buy weapons from North Korea.

The outside measures seem to be all that’s likely to happen on the North Korean front in the near future. Within hours of receiving the joint statement—which had already been agreed to by Japan and South Korea—China rejected the document. China wanted economic benefits and more specificity in guarantees made to North Korea, concerns which Pyongyang echoed almost immediately in denouncing the statement.

Given the quickness with which China rejected the statement, it might be a while before a second round of talks gets underway. But in the minds of many administration hawks, no deal with North Korea is better than an appeasing one.
townhall.com



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/16/2003 4:02:42 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793601
 
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DEC. 16, 2003: NEAR-DEATH EXPERIENCES
Musharraf's Close Call

On the same weekend as the triumphant capture of Saddam Hussein’s, the United States very nearly suffered a nearly commensurate strategic defeat: the death of Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf in a bomb attack.

The attack underscores both Musharraf’s personal courage and his immense value to the United States: If he had been killed, we would have a fine mess in Pakistan.

Musharraf would probably have been succeeded, at least provisionally, by another military leader. But unlike, say, the Turkish military, the Pakistani military is not institutionally pro-Western. It may look pro-Western – with their mustaches, short pants and high knee socks, and swagger sticks, Pakistani officers often seem to have modeled themselves in David Niven. These old imperial accoutrements should not, however, blind us to these awkward facts:

The Saudis have bankrolled much of the Pakistani security system – including the nuclear program – for some two decades now;

Wahhabi Islam is a growing force in Pakistani society and the Pakistani military;

The Taliban’s most important supporter and ally was Pakistan;

The Pakistani security services helped hundreds of Pakistani Taliban supporters to escape U.S. forces in the final days of combat in Afghanistan in December 2001 – and are suspected by some of having passed important information to the al Qaeda leadership;

Pakistan has recruited, trained, financed, and directed Islamic extremist terrorists of its own against India in the struggle over Kashmir;

Pakistan suffers from the social, economic, and cultural failures that create the preconditions for Islamic terrorism – and little headway has been made against them in the two years since 9/11.

The United States continues to need Pakistan’s help. Americans also need to perceive the unwelcome truth about Pakistani society and Pakistan’s institutions. And Americans need to maintain enough emotional distance from Pakistan to recognize that over the longer term, it is democratic India, not Pakistan, that is likely to emerge as America’s most important security partner in South Asia. And, ironically, it may yet be the 100 million Muslims of an increasingly free-market and open-minded India who lead Muslims worldwide toward the modern and moderate Islam that is the ultimate reply to the violence of extremist Islam.

Liberal Literacy

I observed yesterday that while liberals like Al Franken have mocked the idea that God called George Bush to the presidency in 2000, the third quarter's robust economic news and now Saddam's capture, God certainly does seem to be favoring George Bush's re-election in 2004. This provoked a minor flood of enraged emails from some liberal correspondents. Much as I enjoy liberal rage, I really do have to urge these folks to engage in a little bit of that critical thinking and lively sense of humor for which they are always crediting themselves, and notice a joke when they see one.

One More Time

Here, without one of those accursed links, is the James Ross story: Ross was the sentry who before dawn on Dec. 10, fired 100 rounds at a suspicious car as it hurtled toward an American barracks near Mosul. The car exploded in a bomb blast, shattering windows in the barracks and wounding 58 Americans and an Iraqi translator - but without fatalities. The car contained 1000 pounds of explosives; when it detonated, it left a hole in the ground 15 feet deep and propelled its engine 250 yards. But for Specialist James Ross of Boone County, Kentucky, some 200 American soldiers might have been killed that morning. It would have been Beirut 1983 all over again - with incalculable consequences for U.S. policy and for the people of Iraq. Thanks to Ross' quick action, we are today celebrating instead America's greatest achievement in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad.

The man ought to be a national hero - and I hope the good people of Boone County are getting ready to give him a big welcome home to the country that owes him the lives of a couple of hundred of its bravest and best sons and daughters.

Update

A reader from Cincinnati writes to say that Boone County isn't waiting for Ross' return to recognize his achievement. Here are some links to local coverage.

07:47 AM

nationalreview.com



To: Dayuhan who wrote (19118)12/27/2003 12:22:19 AM
From: MSI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793601
 
This is why the "religious war" characterization plays into the hands of our enemies

True. Along with the "crusade" talk.

They want to kill all of us, not because of our religion or our lack of it, but because we are successful and they are not, we are powerful and they are not

Hold on there. The GOP loves that line, and it makes nice tabloid headlines, but where do you find any evidence of that?

The stated reasons are interference by the US.