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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8268)	12/11/2003 9:15:07 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

At least one house believes the cycle is peaking.... 8:50AM CSFB downgrades TSMC and UMC to Underperform from Neutral in Asia : Firm cites a peaking cycle, increasing competition, and rich valuation

To: Gottfried who wrote (8268)	12/12/2003 2:55:04 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Re:JHY, I expect semi equipment maker stock prices to begin declining well before orders peak [like in 2000]. When will that be? Nobody knows, of course. Yes.. That is a difficult question. Although people contend that semi-equipment stocks have run up and the price already reflect the upturn that is looming. I seriously doubt that it is already accounting for the earning that we will see at the peak. So when will be the peak? To judge that questions, I would first have to see annoucement from the chipmakers that they are actually palnning new fab (green field construction). So far buying has been limited to just updating the equipment and upgrading someline to 300mm tools to boost the yield a little. But chipmakers are still relunctant to invest aggressively. I would wait and watch if we see some large pull-in of orders and if the demand keep tightening up, they will have enough confidence to plan new fabs...This is when I would expect that we will see large sudden jump in order patterns. This trend has not occurred for long long time due to prolonged downturn but I am betting it may during this upturn.. JH