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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Mosher who wrote (487)	12/18/2003 8:45:11 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2955

Don, I have dug up the diffusion model we used to calculate ISCO's sales of superconducting filters for the cellular market. The prediction is through 2000. Pursuant to the model, in 2000 ISCO was predicted to sell approximately $52 million of filters. These considers a host of complex elements and assumes 6 filters per base station, along with predicted base station growth, increasing urban subscribers, et al. It does not account for data activity, which by 2000 was non-existent in any event. So ~$52 million in sales in 2000 or 10,580 units. Price per unit in 2000 was estimated at $4,968 vs. the price of a conventional filter of $3,281. Now, hold on a second to see if I can find numbers from ISCO for 2000: Well, can't find ISCO, so let me look at SCON: In 2000 SCON had a little over $10 million in sales. So the model was too aggressive. What the model attempted to do was to take the product adoption of other technology products (kind of like comparables in doing a real estat appraisal), and toss in constants in that regard. It seems that superconducting filters are not nearly as quick as an uptake as was the case for other technology products that were considered comparable. Given the urgency of these numbers to the survival of ISCO, no wonder you can't find much mention of them anymore. The numbers said build the new plant, the results were if you build it, they won't come, and then your plumb out of money. Tinker