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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (270041)	12/9/2003 1:40:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

Dow 10K party at yer place? You gonna bring Maria? He IS Maria How else do you think he stays so informed? M

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (270041)	12/9/2003 1:48:48 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

nah, we're going downtown.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (270041)	12/9/2003 2:22:04 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Refi Bust Won't End Party For Subprime Why do they have to do this to me? IBD pimping subprime... LOL! biz.yahoo.com Investor's Business Daily Refi Bust Won't End Party For Subprime Tuesday December 9, 10:24 am ET By Laura Mandaro The refinancing boom is finally ending. But not all lenders lifted by record mortgage activity will feel the same pinch. For subprime and other nonconventional lenders such as IndyMac Bancorp, New Century Financial Corp., NovaStar Financial Inc. and Saxon Capital, it's still prime time. Several expect to equal or top this year's record results in 2004. While that may not sound like much, it contrasts with fears that rising mortgage rates and fewer refinancing loans will slash lenders' profits. Irvine, Calif.-based New Century, was one of several subprime lenders last week to detail 2004 outlooks. It said despite record originations this year, "the best is yet to come." November loan volume fell under 1% from October. "Investors are now beginning to realize that the same cyclicality in prime mortgages doesn't exist with subprime," says Jim Fowler, an analyst at JMP Securities. Subprime Less Cyclical New Century and others say their borrowers are less sensitive to rate moves. They point to the untapped market of would-be homeowners that may never have considered a subprime or Alt-A rated mortgage. And several are expanding as they gear up to increase market share in the year ahead. Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. of San Diego says the end of record refinancing stoked by record low rates won't have a big impact. That's because just 9% of the newly public subprime lender's loans for the first nine months of 2003 were refinance-related. Over half - 54% - of Accredited's $5.6 bil in loans were "debt-consolidation," in which borrowers roll higher-interest debt like credit cards into mortgages. Converting card debt with 18% interest into a mortgage, even a subprime one at 9%, is still a big money saver, even if it isn't the absolute lowest rate. Another 37% came from purchase loans, or mortgages to buy a house rather than refinance an existing mortgage. Executive Vice President and co-founder Ray McKewon admits Accredited garners customers at a faster rate when times are tough and people feel more crunched for credit. Subprime mortgages totaled $230 billion in the first nine months of 2003, up 45% from 2002, according to the Inside B&C newsletter. But even if that growth slows, Accredited still should increase profits by roughly 5% next year. "Regardless of the economy, consumer debt continues to grow," Mr. McKewon said. But the sharp refinancing slowdown will pinch many subprime and specialty lenders. IndyMac, which focuses on Alt-A borrowers, or those with fairly high credit quality but some quirk in their history, says roughly one-third of its production this year was refinancing-related. It forecasts a 28% drop in production and a 15% drop in fourth-quarter profit from the third. Production will continue to fall next year. But this former unit of mortgage giant Countrywide Financial Corp., sees a short-lived slowdown. IndyMac in October raised its '04 EPS forecast to roughly flat with this year. By fourth-quarter 2004, it expects production beating third-quarter 2003 levels, said CFO A. Scott Keys. What its secret? A bigger balance sheet, which should generate higher income as it collects interest paid on loans, continued demand by Alt-A borrowers for purchase loans, and increased market share as it builds more sales offices. "We tend to gain share when the industry is down," said Keys. Subprime lenders also face criticism from consumer activists and politicians that they're selling high-risk loans. Several states and localities have passed laws that restrict "predatory lending." New Century said it'll make 60% fewer loans in New Jersey after the state implemented an anti-predatory lending law in late November. Meanwhile, lenders that mostly serve prime borrowers, like Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual and Countrywide Financial, still have plenty of work. Mortgage rates are still relatively low, keeping home buying at or near record levels. The MBA expects home purchase loans to total $1.18 trillion from $1.14 trillion this year. And though the refinance wave has crested, its surf continues to wash ashore. The MBA says refis could remain historically strong at least through the first quarter. "There's always a little longer tail on refinancing than people anticipate," said Doug Duncan, the MBA's chief economist. But the country's top lenders have already seen sizeable drops in loan volume. High-flying Countrywide blew out third-quarter profit estimates as loans rose 98% from a year earlier. But on Monday, it said November volume fell 31% from November '02 and 23% from October. The Calabasas, Calif.-based lender says income from servicing mortgages will offset some of the drop in production income.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (270041)	12/9/2003 3:22:36 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

Date: Tue Dec 09 2003 14:36 trotsky (more Kudlow) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i keep thinking, 'where do they find these guys'? kapex sure is right bout one thing, the conditoning runs deep. 100 years ago the mere suggestion that printing more paper money constituted a 'pro-growth' positive economic policy would have seen you laughed out of the room - no-one would have believed it for one second. they'd have pronounced the proponent of such an idea a nut-case, and they would have been right. today an economic illiterate like Kudlow can go forth on national TV and spew forth this nonsense without being challenged in the slightest - they ALL believe it's true! amazing really. as an aside, now that even the Fed appears to have anbandoned the deflation theory it is very apropos that the money supply growth rate has just experienced its steepest plunge in several decades. iow, they'll change their tune again soon enough. sorry that i keep ranting about Kudlow, but it literally pains me to see this utter bunk being sold as 'economic insight' to the masses. it upset my stomach. Date: Tue Dec 09 2003 14:19 trotsky (Kudlow & his buddies) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved must be short gold and long the buck from the way he gets carried away over what the monetary bureaucrats might or might not do. it's like he's begging for help with their underwater positions? didn't loudmouth Cramer short gold at 390 or so?