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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (3056)	12/9/2003 4:45:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

A halfway decent analysis by NT. However.... Note the fact the bias change was even hedged to risk of inflation "ALMOST" equals risk of disinflation. Also note that a bias change to neutral is NOT one step away from a hike The FED will undoubtedly leave the bias change neutral at the next FOMC (if in fact they do not reverse it back to fear of deflation if Bonds start tanking) Furthermore there is an additional stop in between. The FED will change the bias to tightening before it does so. That bias change to tightening is very unlikely before Hune and probably not until after the election UNLEES the job market is screaming. I view that as a near-ZERO probability. Also not that the change was to "ALMOST" equal. We next have a change to exactly equal. Then a change to > equal then a change to tightening then and only then tightening. No rate hikes until after the election is an EXTREMELY good bet IMO. If Eurodollars sell off tomorrow I am ADDING to that bet. M

To: ild who wrote (3056)	12/9/2003 4:52:59 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Northern Trust's comments are blather. I'm just going to call the Fed (Wizard of Oz) irrelevant (and most economists including Northern Trust) in terms of my own analysis. About the only data I'd key on is how much debt they monetize each week. I think (as Darfot would say), their role has now stooped to Middle Ages like debates about stimulating topics such as "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?" And these old senile characters they keep interviewing on CNBC about all this, my God it's like a nursing home. How did we get into this state? There should be a requirement to fucking retire from all this at 52 (about my age now, it's all downhill afterwards, anyway). Go do something useful, and take up gardening for heaven sakes.

To: ild who wrote (3056)	12/9/2003 4:58:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

My reply to the following statement made on my board on the FOOL The dollar is going to force their hand.... The US$ did not budge today Furthermore the US$ will not force their hand anyway I actually believe in spite of all this strong $ bullsh*t talk, they actually want it to fall. Nor will gold force their hand in spite of what all the goldbugs say The only thing that can conceivably force their hand is a bond massacre, and even then I doubt it. Bonds rallied on the initial announcement and the fact that "considerable period" was left in. Bonds sank as did the market when the bias was half-assed changed Now what do you think the bond and stock market will do when the bias is really changed? In short, the bond market will get killed if there is a bias change Therefore, it is extremely unlikely until after the election. M