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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (3058)	12/9/2003 5:00:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I am positioned for a 1/4 to 1/2 point hike In SEPTEMBER. If it happens in March (which I consider highly unlikely I am screwed). I actually believe NO rate hikes until at least Sept. M

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (3058)	12/9/2003 5:05:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

And that first rate hike will be followed by many more through mid-2005 IMHO. This is probably our strongest disagreement. IF there is a hike at all (and there is a decent chance there will not be a hike for YEARS IMO, and by decent I mean 20-30%) there will be 1-2 hikes at most. After that the stock market and bond market will be in utter shambles and the next 4 moves after that will be CUTS. There will be a FORTUNE to be made in eurodollars and treasuries by betting against hikes if we are lucky enough to get two of them. We are going to "pull a Japan" where interest rates are headed to 1/4 IMO. M