Anti-Dean Dems look for new tactics
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An active, though disorganized, movement grows
msnbc.com
ANALYSIS
By Jim VandeHei and Dan Balz
THE WASHINGTON POST
WASHINGTON, Dec. 10 — With record fundraising, favorable poll numbers and the endorsement yesterday of Al Gore, Howard Dean is systematically trying to create an aura of inevitability to his campaign even before most voters tune in to the Democratic presidential race next year. But fears about his electability and temperament are fueling an active, though disorganized, movement to stop him.
IN MANY respects, Dean’s strategy is working: Democrats, other than his rivals, are growing increasingly reluctant to publicly take Dean on, and some establishment Democrats are noticeably warming to his outsider, anti-Washington campaign to remake the party. Dean “is now the establishment candidate,” said Joe Lockhart, a former Bill Clinton press secretary who said he has concerns about Dean. A few key Democratic governors are expected to rally around their former colleague in coming weeks, party sources said. Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, who talks frequently with Dean, said “there’s no doubt” the candidate’s message “is certainly resonating in Wisconsin.”
At the same time, polls show Dean stronger by the week in Iowa and New Hampshire, which traditionally have set the tone for the presidential race nationwide.
The former Vermont governor faces at least three formidable obstacles: the possibility of an organized “stop Dean” campaign emerging, intensified scrutiny of his words and actions, and a calendar that shows the first votes still six weeks away and big battle brewing in the South on Feb. 3. Historically, nominees have rarely escaped without a serious challenge from the right or left.
Former representative Tim Roemer (D-Ind.) predicted that retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark will emerge as the candidate anti-Dean forces rally around, voicing a view offered privately by several Democrats. “It’s become less of a broad field ... and more Dean and Clark,” said Roemer, who has not endorsed a candidate.
The reasons Clark’s stock could rise are twofold: He is expected to raise more than $10 million this quarter, much more than any rival save Dean, and offers a strong military résumé for an election that could be decided on issues of national security. Other Democrats said they think Clark, a newcomer to politics whose platform remains vague, will wilt under scrutiny if he does break through in coming weeks.
Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) were mentioned by several Democrats as possible alternatives to Dean. Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry’s stock has dropped precipitously in the view of many Democrats.
Either way, many prominent Democrats — including former high-level Clinton advisers and top state officials — fear Dean’s antiwar, anti-tax-cuts presidential campaign could prevent the party from winning the White House and Congress in 2004 unless he quickly proves he can moderate his positions and image.
DETRACTORS IN WASHINGTON
Key Washington Democrats have been holding private talks to share their concerns about Dean’s campaign and his plans for remaking the party. These detractors, including members of Congress, have debated whether Dean can — or wants to — transform himself into a centrist candidate who can win votes in the Midwest and South, the key battlefields for 2004. Those most worried advocate coalescing around an alternative candidate early, but so far they have been unable to agree on one.
“There’s an increasing level of anxiety, which seems to me to be appropriate,” said Pat Griffin, a former Clinton official, who added that “people are legitimately asking” whether Dean would help or hurt congressional candidates if he becomes the nominee.
Bruce Reed, another former top Clinton official, was more blunt. “Governor Dean is winning the anti-Bush derby, but his positive agenda is at the back of the pack,” he said.
Leon E. Panetta, Clinton’s former chief of staff, said Democrats are most concerned about Dean’s foreign policy heft. “The concern you almost always hear is: Can he go head to head with George Bush by beating the same drum?” Panetta said.
Many Democrats believe Clinton shares these concerns, but friends say the former president has no plans to publicly influence the race. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) has said she will not make an endorsement either, making Gore the biggest catch of this race.
SPLIT IN THE PARTY
Gore’s endorsement reinforces the split within the Democratic Party. On one side are Clinton’s closest advisers and adherents, who believe the key to winning national elections lies in mixing centrist policies (such as tax relief for the middle class to appeal to swing voters) with traditional party values (such as abortion rights and environmental protection to satisfy liberals).
On the other are Dean, Gore and a large number of activists who want to return to the party’s roots and expand its base by fighting Bush with clear-cut alternatives. “We lost a lot of races in 2002 because we decided to go to swing voters and [thought] the base would come along later,” Dean said. Democrats must stand for “those people who are with us all the time.”
Many Democrats interviewed said they are willing to give Dean room to prove his strategy can work, a testament to his growing strength. Dean has proved himself dexterous throughout his political career, running for governor as a centrist and president as a champion of the far left, they said. He has provided ample room to modify his image by offering primary voters ambiguity on foreign policy and tax reform, two key policy areas he could use to reshape his image in a general election. Already, he is pushing for balanced budgets and state control over gun laws as proof of his centrist ways.
“I am not sure which Dean we get,” Roemer said. “Maybe it’s the governor who was a moderate or the candidate who seems to be moving left to win the nomination.”
Dean’s biggest threat could be himself. “I don’t think the other candidates can stop him,” said Tony Coelho, national chairman of Gore’s presidential campaign. “The only question is: Can Dean stop Dean?” So far, Democrats say, Dean has deftly extricated himself from controversies over the Confederate flag and his seeming flip-flops on Medicare, Social Security and trade issues.
Democratic rivals are looking for vulnerabilities in Dean’s tenure in Vermont and demanding that he unseal records as governor.
LOOMING CHALLENGES FOR DEAN
Although Gore’s endorsement is significant in bringing Dean establishment respectability to go with his insurgent’s profile, some party strategists warned that next month’s primaries and caucuses will create their own dynamic and produce a genuine contest between Dean and at least one of his rivals.
The subplot of the service unions, which back Dean, vs. the trade unions, which back Gephardt, could determine the winner in Iowa. If Gephardt wins, he will probably emerge as the alternative.
The first impact of Gore’s endorsement is likely to be felt in Iowa, too, a state Gore overwhelmingly won over Bill Bradley in the 2000 caucuses and where Dean advisers believe Gore remains popular with rank-and-file activists, including union workers.
Even if Dean sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire, Edwards, Clark or Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) could make one last stand Feb. 3, when several southern states, including South Carolina, will have a say.
“We think the place where Howard Dean can be beaten is South Carolina,” said Nick Baldick, Edwards’s campaign manager. “The person who wins South Carolina emerges as the alternative.” A Pew poll released yesterday shows Edwards leading there.
Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi said the “biggest mistake” Dean’s rivals made was “underestimating” the Vermont Democrat. “We won’t make the mistake of underestimating them.”
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