To: Oeconomicus who wrote (2264 ) 12/10/2003 3:37:58 PM From: Hope Praytochange Respond to of 90947 Publishers Update Business Forecasts By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Filed at 3:12 p.m. ET NEW YORK (AP) -- Newspaper publishers gave upbeat assessments for the advertising outlook Wednesday, expressing optimism that the economic rebound will fuel moderate but steady growth in 2004. Speaking at an annual investor conference hosted by Credit Suisse First Boston, Media General Inc. and E.W. Scripps predicted growth ranging from 4 percent to 6 percent in newspaper advertising next year. Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and other financial publications, noted ``intermittent signs of life'' in business-to-business advertising but said the outlook remained uncertain. Highlights from the presentations: The Washington Post Co. Despite a ``disappointing'' recent performance in circulation at The Washington Post, chief executive Donald Graham said the company is not yet planning to incorporate readership from its burgeoning Web site into its total circulation calculations. Even though the combined readership of the newspaper and its Web site is ``much, much higher than it's ever been,'' Graham noted that the newspaper remains a ``profitable business, whereas the online product is not.'' This fall, The Wall Street Journal for the first time included in circulation totals a portion of paying Web site subscribers, under new guidelines from the Audit Bureau of Circulations. Graham said The Washington Post expected to introduce Personal Video Recorders, or PVRs, to customers at its cable TV division Cable One during the next year. But he said the company would wait and see what other high-tech services to offer such as telephony and video-on-demand. Dow Jones & Co. Chief operating officer Richard Zannino said the company was ``pleased to see intermittent signs of life'' in the key business-to-business advertising category at The Wall Street Journal, but he cautioned that ``we're not out of the woods yet.'' Dow Jones reported earlier Wednesday that advertising linage, or volume, at the Journal decreased 6.2 percent in November, for a year-to-date decline of 2.8 percent. Journal publisher Karen Elliot House noted that the company was seeing more consumer advertising since the expansion of its color printing capacity and the launch of the Personal Journal section, which features consumer-oriented stories. The company did not issue a specific outlook for earnings in 2004, but chief financial officer Christopher Vieth said it expects to do so on its fourth quarter conference call. Media General Inc. Chief executive J. Stewart Bryan III said 2003 got off to a ``weak start'' for the Richmond, Va.-based publishing and broadcasting company due to the sluggish economy and war in Iraq, but momentum picked up by early summer ``Since that time, our publishing division has performed at or near the top of its peer group in revenue growth,'' Bryan said. He said retail advertising continues to be soft, primarily due to a slowdown in department store advertising, but he said the company had made ``excellent progress'' in increasing circulation. Chief financial officer Marshall Morton said the company expects to see total publishing revenues increase 4 percent to 5 percent in 2004, including a 4 percent to 5 percent increase in advertising revenues and a 3 percent to 5 percent increase in circulation revenues. E.W. Scripps Co. Scripps expects advertising revenues to jump 20 percent to 30 percent next year at its rapidly growing cable networks division, which includes the flagship channels HGTV and the Food Network as well as the more recently launched Do It Yourself network and Fine Living. ``Our strategy going forward at HGTV and Food is to push distribution to its absolute limits and to keep the pipeline to quality programs open,'' chief executive Kenneth Lowe said. ``We still have plenty of runway left with these vibrant, growing brands.'' At the same time, the company expects cable network programming expenses to increase by 25 percent to 30 percent, and other expenses in the division to increase by the same amount due to investments in video-on-demand services and broadband content. In its newspaper division, which includes the Rocky Mountain News in Denver, Scripps expects advertising revenues to rise 4 percent to 6 percent next year. Chief financial officer Joseph NeCastro said he expected the ``slow but steady improvement in advertising to continue into next year.''