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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (11076)	12/10/2003 3:22:20 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

Add 2,000 TOY at 10.44. For better or worse, here's my rationale for starting another long position in this stock. Comments are definitely welcome! 1. A lot of speculation has been put out by people who claim to have heard that sales are down as much as 5% year to year. I tend to believe these claims because I know where they are coming from. Therefore I have to believe that a sales miss and earnings miss are either in the process of being discounted, or have been discounted by the largest players. 2. The stock should have support, albeit short term, in the current price range of 10.20 to 10.50. 3. As of the Nov 10 report, the short interest was up to 9.833 million shares. The short interest was 7.224 million shares as of the Oct 8 report. I would guess that the short interest is even higher now (Dec report due out soon) because of the rumor that sales are down. It seems probable that many shorts will cover now that the sales miss is leaking out, which should further support the stock and at least provide a technical bounce from the low to mid 10 area.