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Politics : Wesley Clark -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (895)	12/11/2003 12:44:53 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 1414

Josh Marshall elaborates on his reactions to Gore's endorsement of Dean... talkingpointsmemo.com <<...And let me premise the following by saying that I don't think this is the only possible outcome, just the one that is more likely than any of the others I can see, given what we know now. Gore's endorsement clearly helps Dean a lot. But it also helps Clark. In fact, I think it sets up a Dean/Clark dynamic in which the odds strongly favor Dean, but in which Clark still has real advantages. Various thoughts lead me to this conclusion. But the chief reason is just a process of elimination. Let's start with this. Who's really still in this race? I think there are five candidates. Clark, Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman. Edwards may not know it yet. But (pace John) he's no longer in the race. As Koppel noted tonight, his standing in the polls barely distinguishes him from Sharpton, Kucinich and Braun. Of those five, Gephardt and Kerry can be effectively knocked out of the race by losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively -- eventualities which now seem quite likely. They're not toast. But they're in the toaster. Snuggly. Lieberman isn't closely tied to success in either of those states. But his campaign has just never taken off. I'm not sure, frankly, whether the Gore thing really hurts Lieberman (except for personally). But that's largely because he was in such bad shape anyway. Plus, Lieberman is the only major candidate in the race for whom there is a significant core of Democratic primary voters who find him an unacceptable nominee. Unlike Gephardt and Kerry, there's no totally clear cut reason why Lieberman doesn't end up contesting this with Dean. But I just don't see it. (I actually like Lieberman. But that's just how it is.) In any case, that leaves Clark. Add to this two other factors. 1. Clark is raising money at a better clip than any of the other candidates beside Dean. 2. Clark has a clearer raison d'etre for his campaign than that of any of the other candidates, save Dean: namely, his national security credentials as a retired general. (You can tell his campaign sees this because Clark made this point explicitly tonight.) Many presidents have been governors with no prior foreign policy experience. So Dean's in good company. But it's a clear distinction between Dean and Clark in what is sure to be a general election fought heavily on national security issues...>>