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Politics : I Will Continue to Continue, to Pretend.... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sully- who wrote (425)1/7/2004 12:05:57 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 35834
 
Snatching Defeat in The Balkans

By Morton Abramowitz

washingtonpost.com
Wednesday, January 7, 2004; Page A21
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A rabid nationalist party led by an indicted war criminal emerged as Serbia's leading political party in last month's elections. It is just the latest manifestation of how badly things are deteriorating in the Balkans.

European-American collaboration -- successful in ending the war in Bosnia and the Serbian oppression in Kosovo, and in helping to rebuild the region -- is now turning success into failure. The promise of integration into the European Union, however important, is not sufficient to change the Balkans. Unless the West stops putting off difficult political decisions or making bad ones, prospects for reversing the downward trend will remain dismal.
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To be sure, resumption of major hostilities is not on the horizon anywhere in the Balkans. But that does not justify relegating the area to the backwater it has become, particularly with regard to the U.S. government. It's not just that so much effort and treasure have been spent on trying to help produce decent, functioning states. <font size=4>Western policy is running the risk of creating mini-"black holes" in Europe where violent nationalism, crime and terrorism are rampant.

What have been the mistakes? Let's start with Serbia, the biggest player in the region.

The stench of Slobodan Milosevic's rule still pervades Serbia. In no East European country undergoing a post-communist transition -- not even in Russia -- has the country's leader been assassinated, as Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic of Serbia was. He was killed not because he sent Milosevic to The Hague for trial, but because he was preparing a crackdown on some of the criminal elements that continue to wield influence in post-Milosevic Serbia.

Despite considerable Western aid and some progress, notably in economic reform, the bottom line is that Serbia is a political swamp. It remains a nationalist and quasi-Mafia state, the product of a failure by reform elements to clean house and by Western countries to face facts. The latter largely avoided putting conditions on their aid and coddled the democratic forces, repeatedly citing extenuating circumstances for their failure to deliver and turning a blind eye to their corruption.

The West made another big mistake with its intense effort to keep Serbia and Montenegro together. By preventing the last step in the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the West sought both to stave off movement toward an independent Kosovo and to have one instead of two states for the EU to consider. It bludgeoned two real states into a bizarre confederation that does not work and likely will vanish if Montenegro is allowed to have a promised referendum on independence in 2005.
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Establishing Serbia-Montenegro kept senior leaders in both countries tied up for years, reducing their focus on internal reform and wasting time and effort on the fancies of Western statesmen. Worse, the effort kept Serbia absorbed in the past, à la Yugoslavia, rather than tending to its future and the critical need to democratize the Serbian state and get rid of its criminal elements.

Moreover, rather than preparing Serbia to face its Kosovo dilemma, which many Serbs seemed ready to do after the Kosovo war, the West acted as if Serbian sovereignty in Kosovo might actually be restored. Instead of encouraging Serbs to accept the reality of the loss of Kosovo, Western envoys in Belgrade encouraged -- even today -- Serbia's leaders to believe there remained a serious role for Serbia in Kosovo. Part of the West's rationale was that the new Serbian government was fragile, and it should do nothing to make life more difficult for it by discussing Kosovo's future. You can bet the same argument will be made by Western ambassadors as Serbia tries once again to fashion a new government now after its latest elections.

Finally and more broadly on Kosovo, the West has faltered by consciously putting off consideration of its final status. Some Western governments are simply opposed to Kosovo's independence, but for most democratic governments the attitude is simply: Why make painful decisions when you don't have to? Few countries are willing to bear short-term costs for uncertain long-term benefits.
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The West failed to act when the political possibilities for movement on Kosovo were greatest. It has more recently compounded the problem by continuing to insist, after four years, that the freely elected Kosovo government cannot run the country and that a U.N. mission must do it. Western countries have developed a formula for further delay by insisting that Kosovo meet certain wonderful standards for good governance before it may even have an effective government with real decision-making powers, and also before its final status can be considered. The West has thus dug itself an even bigger hole on the Kosovo issue, and uncertainty about the future of all three entities -- Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo -- has become greater, making investment and economic growth in the region all the more difficult. Delay and the recent Serbian elections have also made the partition of Kosovo more likely.

Nobody said that there is an easy solution to Kosovo.<font size=3> Independence, with or without partition, is a complicated matter with uncertain consequences. Certainly there will have to be negotiations between Serbs and Kosovars on any final solution. Major international considerations are also involved. <font size=4>But when delay has been the Western response in the Balkans, the results have invariably been bad. From the current Western approach we can look forward to deadlock, political instability, increased ethnic tensions, low-level violence, continued Mafia-dominated governments and little growth.

Cooperation between Europe and the United States is great, except when they pursue bad policies. Democratic governments are less prone to admit error and more to change the subject and rhapsodize on all the good things they think they are doing. It is time to get a concerted Western policy that truly helps reform Serbia, frees Serbia and Montenegro from their pseudo-union, allows the people of Kosovo to have a real government, and begins the painful process of resolving the Kosovo question.
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The writer is a senior fellow at the Century Foundation and former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

© 2004 The Washington Post Company



To: Sully- who wrote (425)3/20/2004 11:16:58 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 35834
 
Clinton’s Embarrassing “Successes”
American Thinker
March 20th, 2004

One Clinton foreign policy initiative that was claimed to be “successful” by the former President and his supporters was the Nato mission to stop the Serbs’ attempted ethnic cleansing of Kosovo. The Nato bombing mission in 1999 forced the Serbs to succumb, and allowed several hundred thousand Muslim Albanians back into Kosovo from temporary refugee camps in surrounding countries.

Little mentioned at the time was that when the Albanians came back, they took their revenge on the few remaining Serbs in Kosovo, driving more than half of them from the province. Now, with discussions about permanent partition lines between Serbia and Kosovo in the offing, the Albanians are attempting to put some facts on the ground, and have begun a campaign of violence to force out the few remaining Serbs, and enable Kosovo to be free of them. In the past few days, 31 have been killed (most of them Serbs) and over a hundred wounded in the attacks by the Kosovar Albanians.

This attempt at ethnic cleansing, like the previous one by Serbia, has brought Nato into the picture, though this time without any bombing campaign. Nato forces will attempt to restrain the Albanians and prevent them from succeeding in making Kosovo Serb-free. Just a few years back, Nato forces were also called in to prevent Albanian Muslims from destroying the new nation of Macedonia with a terror campaign aimed at splitting that nation into two separate states.

The Kosovo fighting followed shortly after the collapse of the Aristide government in Haiti, another supposed Clinton foreign policy triumph. The duration of Clinton’s “success” in getting North Korea to “stop” its nuclear arms programs was another multi-billion dollar boondoggle, subsidizing a tyrant who happily took our taxpayers’ money, while never intending to live up to his promises. Clinton and his Secretary of State Madeleine Albright apparently never heard of Ronald Reagan’s famous dictum, “Trust, but verify.”

Of course the biggest “success” that fell to ruins was the Middle East peace process, begun in Oslo in 1993, and capped by the White House lawn signing ceremony later that year. This collapse occurred on Clinton’s watch, as the second intifada was created by Yassar Arafat in September 2000, after the Camp David peace talks ended without an agreement in July 2000. Today, the former President picks up $150,000 an hour speaking fees at synagogues, bemoaning Arafat’s intransigence and how it stained his foreign policy record.

The Kosovo experience, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the still separated ethnic communities in Bosnia almost a decade after that war ended, put the lie to those who call for multi-ethnic single states as the solution to ethnic conflicts (e.g. Tony Judt and his call for a single state of Israel-Palestine). In democratic states -- Israel, India, and of course, the US -- minority rights are real and respected, and minority Muslim communities (as an example) are neither cleansed nor purged. A far uglier picture emerges with respect to minority rights within a Muslim-dominated society, pitifully few of which are democratic of course.
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The Kosovo story will not get much ink in the elite press. It suggests that the Clinton administration’s foreign policy “achievements” have had a consistently short shelf life, even forgetting for the moment the neglect of al Qaeda, which allowed that organization to assume this country had lost the will to fight, and would never risk casualties to our soldiers in a land war. Clinton tried a one day cruise missile strike against al Qaeda after the embassy bombings in Africa, not a war to remove the terrorists or the Taliban from Afghanistan. When Bin Laden himself was identified by satellite, he was not taken out for fear of civilian casualties on the ground.

The Bush administration’s greatest foreign policy achievement may be that there is no longer any doubt that this country can take a blow and fight back, or that we will be willing to risk and absorb casualties to our fighting forces if we think carrying the fight forward is necessary.<font szie=3> After Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Arafat and the Palestinians wrongly assumed that Israel had lost the will to fight. Arafat believed that after some stepped up terror strikes Israel would come begging for peace with new and deeper concessions, which would only further endanger the security of the state and its citizens in the future.

There are few doubters today of either Israel or America (at least under Bush), in terms of either country’s willingness to fight. The sharp decline in the poll ratings of John Kerry this week, may say something about how many Americans view abject surrender to terrorism (the Spanish solution), and a candidate who has identified himself as in sync with European objectors to the Iraq war, such as the new Spanish Prime Minister. We have learned that you do not sue for nor make peace with Al Qaeda, as Spain’s new Prime Minister seems to want to do, and Senator Kerry may rue the day that this same Spanish Prime Minister all but endorsed him.

Richard A. Baehr