To: T L Comiskey who wrote (32578 ) 12/12/2003 12:30:48 PM From: lurqer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467 Earth's weakening magnetic field could presage polar flip It sounds like something out of a bad science fiction movie: Compass needles go haywire, cancer rates rise, new ozone holes pop up all over the globe and a plague of glitches descends on all things electronic. But scientists said Thursday that's what could happen. The Earth's protective magnetic field is weakening, and if that continues, the field could flip, and compass needles would point south instead of north. The humble compass, which has guided human exploration for centuries, ``would cease to be a simple means of navigation,'' said Jeremy Bloxham, a geophysicist at Harvard University. ``We would have multiple poles,'' he said -- patches on the Earth's surface that would attract a compass needle as if they were the north pole, or repel it as if they were the south. No one can say for sure if a flip is about to take place -- and in any case, it would take at least 2,000 years. The strength of the magnetic field has fallen about 10 percent since 1845, Bloxham said. But the magnetic field has grown weaker before, only to perk up and return to normal levels. These flips are perfectly normal and happen every 200,000 years, on average, scientists say. The last one took place 780,000 years ago, so you could say we're overdue for another. And there are now intriguing signs of a possible flip. Scientists talked about the latest developments at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. New data from studies of ancient rock, satellite measurements and even archaeology ``are all coming together,'' said John A. Tarduno of the University of Rochester in New York, who organized the session. ``That doesn't mean it's going to happen. It just heightens our interest.'' The magnetic field is generated by the spinning of the planet's core, some billion trillion tons of molten iron. The spin creates electrical currents, and they generate a magnetic field that protects the planet like a cocoon. This field blocks most of the harmful particles that flow from the sun. If the field went away, scientists say, Earth would soon be as dry and seemingly devoid of life as Mars. For reasons researchers don't fully understand, the field sometimes reverses itself. The magnetic north pole, which has been near the geographical north pole throughout human history, would move south, and vice versa. How do scientists know this? Because when molten lava cools into rock, bits of magnetic material within the lava line up in the direction of the magnetic field and freeze in that position. The same thing happens when clay pots are fired. So by analyzing old rocks and ancient pots, researchers can tell which direction a compass would have pointed at the time they were formed. ``Is a reversal coming? Yeah, it's coming for sure -- sometime,'' said geologist Robert Coe of the University of California-Santa Cruz. Whether the field flips or merely continues to weaken, there will be similar consequences. More harmful particles would flow in from the sun; one researcher has estimated they could cause an extra 100,000 cancer cases a year. Animals that rely on the field as a navigational guide would be confused, although probably not fatally; there is no evidence of mass extinctions at the time of past flips. Solar particles would also set off reactions that destroy ozone high in the atmosphere, said Charles H. Jackman, an atmospheric scientist with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. In the worst case, he said, the amount of ozone could drop by 40 percent near the poles and about 4 percent globally for periods of a year or so -- a double whammy, because the ozone layer blocks harmful ultraviolet radiation from reaching the surface. Said Coe, ``It will be an interesting time.'' siliconvalley.com lurqer