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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (15417)	12/11/2003 11:39:29 AM
From: bentway	Respond to of 306849

Yeah, I did too. Nevertheless, I don't think this condition is stable: opendemocracy.net

To: GraceZ who wrote (15417)	12/11/2003 11:42:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

heard the same thing back in the 70s in regards to the rise of Japan. there are important differences. as GDP rises, there is an attendant rise in fuel consmption (obviously economies can only grow so far on muscle power). Japanese per-capita oil consumption rose some 30-fold during this period. there is NO WAY that Chinese per-capita oil consumption could rise anywhere NEAR this amount without causing oil prices to absolutely skyrocket, perhaps to a 10-fold increase. this skyrocketing oil price would naturally disrupt the entire world economy and render impossible the kind of economic expansion experienced by Japan. not to mention that it would only accelerate the coming scarcity of fossil fuel resources which will lead to TEOTWAWKI in any case. a second point is, Japan's growth was based on its mercantilist philosophy and largely dependent on the US. China would have difficulty relying on this strategy, to the extent Japan has, because its economy would quickly become much larger than the US'. this means that over the long run, it is impossible for a rapidly growing China to rely on the US as much as Japan has been able to. thus, "size matters".