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To: bcrafty who wrote (87286)	12/11/2003 11:44:45 AM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

BC.....after yesterday's exchange with you, probably better that I keep my mouth shut..g....Just take my comments with a few grains of salt....or maybe, keep a full salt shaker handy ... As to that "significant" bounce or not.....looks like it was a little more "significant" than I had thought. And one correction...I said yesterday that I thought we were in a "c" down from the last highs, and should be looking for 5 waves. That would be true in a zig-zag down. But I've been looking for a flattish triangle-type correction where 3 waves down would do it......So, looking at the COMPX 60 min, might be the case (note the cautious wording) that yesterday's low completed 3 waves down from Dec 3, and therefore an "a" down, with a "b" underway today.. Still baffled by severe market bifurcation..sharpest as between DOW and COMPX......but also showing up to some extent between SPX and COMPX ( the two that I concentrate on). Sure this has happened before....but don't remember seeing anything quite like it...........(hence my obvious confusion!) All in all, though, going to stay stubborn here, and look for continued pullback in SPX and COMPX. Had posted about a month ago wide range of possible targets, and will take another look.....And continue to think low point may be here sooner rather than later.......By the way, my AAC Wave IV - if it was really born - is now one month old......moving along in the 2 - 2 1/2 month life-span I had given it.......(so you might find a few grains of salt useful here.....G) PS.....Am I seeing some signs of life in the China crowd ??

To: bcrafty who wrote (87286)	12/11/2003 12:13:15 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Your questions: 1) Tight stop: I am trading a specific trade...if I am wrong, then it becomes a different trade. I may or may not make same "type" trade, but I do not (try not to) hold/justify trades that I am "lost" in. I don't consider 1/2 of 1% exceptionally tight (usually 1% most I'll do)- but that's just me. Rightly or wrong, I saw it this way: Since COMP/NDX/Soxx led on way down, I see it in "drivers' seat" here. I identified 1407/1930/495 (or so)/35 QQQ as important levels that should more/less hold as resistence...I always give a few pts. for throwover from experience. I thought (more strongly this morn) that we could turn there, into one last down leg for Dec. I am less enthusiastic here about the trade, since we are not coming off harder, maybe still to come?...it was, admittedly, not super odds that Dow 10k would be irrevelant (but as said, I thought Naz in control), but the later in the day we get, the more I fear an EOD run into/up over. Unless we cave big-time, I won't hold after today....in fact, i'm looking for one more down leg to exit (think we get that, before run up/over 10k eod) BTW- I am not, have not been calling a top...just looking for a tradable top for Dec....thought we had one more down leg (into 22nd cycle low) before up into Xmas/New Year. Personally looking for highs early next year (w/Shack enthusiasm in tow). The problem I see with an over 10k close..it gives ammo to bulls to "gun it" for this weekend, thus putting very positive spin on week (above 10k close). Being so close to historically good holiday, don't like shorting into that UNLESS some momentum exists...I would see a close today above 10k/yesterday's bottom as momentum shift (just some reading tea leaves) and one I don't want to fade (unless it turns today). Check w/me tomorrow, I frequently change scenarios ng,g Also factoring in...the month's been berry, berry good so far, and I'd like to see a lot of bad trades have to take it away, if you know what I mean..want to be in good spirits for holidays g,ng