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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: quote 007 who wrote (49463)12/11/2003 11:10:38 AM
From: PuddleGlum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57110
 
My bullish percent isn't a traditional bullish percent. In fact, I also have a bearish percent (currently at 9%). And these bp's are actually oscillators with a fairly short period. The highest I've seen them is around 45%. I have two stock scans that only 4-6% of stocks will usually meet, so you have those that get caught by scan #1, those that get caught by scan #2, and those that don't get caught.

I have 10 years of data for these scans, and I've never before seen the market strength or euphoria like we've had since end of March.

The traditional problem with oscillators is that "overbought" and "oversold" are often observed at the beginning of long periods of "overbought" or "oversold". My bp's are somewhat better than typical oscillators at identifying real underlying market strength and weakness. But I lost a fair chunk of money on puts this year before I understood some of the implications of these bp's.