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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (3247)	12/12/2003 5:51:51 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ: I am on your side in this debate. I never fail to be amazed at how folks can rationalize the latest bubble and assume its permanence or near permanence. I still expect one of the biggest bond massacres ever before this is over. Carry-trade induced bubbles as we are now seeing in bonds end with a bang -- not a whimper.

To: russwinter who wrote (3247)	12/12/2003 6:36:02 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Germany has a population around 1/4 of the US at 82.4 million as such debt per capita in Germany is close to that of the US.(1.75 x 4 = 7 trillion USD) publicdebt.treas.gov Their problem is low population growth (0.04%) with 18% of population above 65. US with 290 million and only 12.5% aged above 65 with a population growth of 0.92 is way in better shape than Germany long term. Time to buy the USD v. EUR IMHO if speaking 3 to 4 years out odci.gov odci.gov German 2004 Debt to Exceed Italy's, Frankfurter Allgemeine Says Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Germany's stock of debt will surpass Italian debt in absolute terms for the first time next year, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing government data from both countries. German debt will rise to 1.424 trillion euros ($1.741 trillion) from 1.283 trillion euros last year, exceeding Italian debt pegged at 1.420 trillion euros in 2004, the paper said, citing the countries' so-called stability programs drawn up for the European Commission. German debt will rise to 65 percent of gross domestic product next year, after hovering at about 60 percent of GDP for the past seven years. Italian debt will drop to 105 percent of GDP in 2004, from 106.7 percent last year. Germany and Italy are struggling to rein in budget deficits as the economy takes time to recover from recession. Germany expects to exceed European Union limits for a third year in 2004 while Italy, taking advantage of one-time measures such as real estate sales and tax amnesties, aims to hold its 2004 shortfall below 3 percent of GDP. (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 12-12, p.13) For the paper's Web site, see {WFAZ <GO>} Last Updated: December 12, 2003 02:09 EST