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To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (25412)	12/11/2003 11:11:33 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Wow, those are some pretty interesting questions to ponder and I will. Simply, the cycle is one of just boom (credit inflation) and bust (credit deflation). It is very predictable going back into the late 18th Century. You have to have the credit written down before a new boom can begin. The fact that there is so much debt out there makes it improbable that we can start a new boom cycle on top of this one. Politics would be irrelevant as the debt has to go. It either goes quickly (if rates were not lowered over the past few years) or slowly (like we are seeing now). The whole U.S. system and psyche is based on credit and this has to change before things improve. The cycle will not improve until people start saving more and spending less. <<Or, are you saying that the Fibonacci series is fatalistic and there’s a control beyond the control of man and his monetary policies? Is it possible for man to create a model that is beyond the fear and greed scenarios that applies to the reality of man?>> Great questions and Greenie is trying to prove that the latter is possible. I don't think that it is.

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (25412)	12/12/2003 3:13:23 AM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

'It may be like the global warming thing that appears to be without merit to me as the field of study is too short or is biased in some meaningful way that is not apparent in the short run" It would appear prudent to at least be more humble about making such a statement if you are truly ignorant.....

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (25412)	12/12/2003 5:13:12 PM
From: menanna	Respond to of 39344

Hi Elizabeth: Re.: China economy. This is a post from Jay Cheng who is operating in Hong Kong and provides regular analysis on the Chinese economy. You and other people on this thread may find this and his other posts on this topic interesting Message 19588827 Take care Anna