To: ELH1006 who wrote (13263 ) 12/12/2003 3:09:53 AM From: tech101 Respond to of 13565 IDC raises worldwide PC forecast for '03, '04 Silicon Strategies 12/11/2003, 9:17 AM ET FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--Citing a surge in consumer demand, International Data Corp. (IDC) today (December 11, 2003) raised its PC forecast for 2003 and 2004. Strong third quarter results and projected growth of 15.3 percent in the fourth period are expected to boost annual growth of worldwide PC shipments to 11.4 percent in 2003, an increase from prior growth projections of 8.4 percent, according to IDC. Total shipments in 2003 are now expected to surpass 152 million, with value flat at just over $175 billion, according to IDC. The updated projections represent shipment growth of 8.8 percent over 2000, the previous highest year for PC shipments, with a 22 percent decline in total value due to aggressive pricing and a shift toward lower-end configurations as overall computing power increases, according to the Framingham-based research firm. Shipment growth is expected to continue at 11.4 percent in 2004, up from prior expectations of 10.2 percent, while shipment value is forecast to grow by 4 percent in 2004. "Following a surge in demand during the third quarter, and supported by an improving economic environment, we expect significant growth in the fourth quarter," said Loren Loverde, who watches the market for IDC, in a statement. "Consumers remain the primary market driver, and while business purchases have yet to accelerate substantially, overall growth shows the market in mid recovery. We expect greater business participation and continued double-digit growth during 2004," he said. "Within the great numbers we're seeing a dramatic shift from desktop to notebook buying," added analyst Roger Kay of IDC, in a statement. "We expect this trend to continue for several more years, although the rate of change may be near its maximum right now." With continued progress on the economic front, the United States looks ready to lead the market recovery in 2004, according to IDC. Growth should remain high in the fourth quarter in Western Europe, while relatively slow business growth and a diminishing effect from a strong Euro will limit growth in 2004, the report said. While fourth quarter growth is expected to fall back to single digits in Japan, overall growth should rise to double digits in 2004 despite the already high penetration of portables. While the market expects minimal impact from SARS going forward, PC demand in Asia/Pacific has not recovered quite as fast as other regions. This is a combination of relatively low portable penetration in the region as well as a delayed response to improving economics. Nevertheless, the region will continue to grow in double- digit rates throughout the forecast.