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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (43114)12/12/2003 7:55:18 AM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
deflation central

Is deflation still a problem in China? I am reading inflation starts rearing its ugly head.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (43114)12/12/2003 8:48:32 AM
From: AC Flyer  Respond to of 74559
 
Bravo, Jay!

>>The problematic issue in the US may be that the folks in aggregate do not understand the changing rules, are not prepared for the new reality, think they can influence the government to change the rules, without realizing, until it is too late, that there is preciously little the government can do without becoming too big a government and in the process also do serious damage to all that which is worthwhile while trying to fix the unfixable, even as it is unable to do anything about the original problem.<<

The good news, I think, is that a majority does understand that the best path to continued prosperity still lies with the invisible hand of capitalism.

"Every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it...He intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for society that it was no part of his intention. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good."......Adam Smith, 1776



To: TobagoJack who wrote (43114)12/12/2003 12:01:16 PM
From: energyplay  Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Jay - To the extent that governments address certain specific problems, they tend to be late and somewhat off the mark in most (not all ) cases.

In terms of general actions, such as increasing education incentives, investment incentives, etc, they (governments) tend to do pretty well.

There are four major areas of government & social failure in the US which affect competitiveness -

1) Health care costs. There is more health care expense in US cars than steel. This is a heavy cost burden vs. societies with either cheaper health care, socialized cost, or little or no health care.

It does not appear that the political will exists to address this in a comprehensive fashion. Progress made be made at the margins, however.

2) Excessive tort litagation, far more than any other industrial society. This not only imposes direct costs, but inhibits many activities, where everything has to be considered as a potential liability. Only minor progress is being made on this. Litagation is also a big part of problem 1).

3) Educational quality and motivation. The US has very varible education quality with a number of problems. There is also a significant number of parents (usually native born) who do not precieve education of their childern as important and consequently do not help or push their childern in a concsistent manor.

As a result, 10-20 percent of the US population is not very productive, and an even larger group needs extensive training to be production at fairly standard tasks.

This is a more difficult problem since there is disagreement as what a desireable outcome would be like.

One of the minor postive signs is the push for standardized testing at the various grade levels. While this creates other problems, at least we have some measurement of the problem.

4) Crime and it's indirect costs. This tends to be an unseen drag on the economy. There is a high percentage of the US population in prision or on parole. Crime has direct costs, in prisons, police, courts, etc. There are also indirect costs, such as the decline or real estate values in many areas, which leads development to new greenfield sites, instead of re-using existing buildings and infrastructure. Insurance costs are only one of the ways crime will hit the bottom line.

Crime gets tied into the education problems in many ways.

Currently, the policy of locking up more violent criminals for longer periods seems to be working, but at a high cost.

*************

Note that these areas are not about the problem of low cost Asian labor vs. US workers, but massive inefficencies on the US side of the equation. These problems make it difficult to respond to the Asian challenge.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (43114)12/12/2003 7:10:20 PM
From: Ann Corrigan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Thanks Jay. I'll check out Mr. Pullman's biography--did not know he was another quality American CEO. I disagree that governments must be completely handsoff. That leads to corruption & injustice for average worker. The U.S. government has certain obligations to protect its citizens welfare. We do not pay taxes & then expect our gov to ignore our needs. Our congress&president cannot get elected without winning our votes. 100% unfettered capitalism is as ineffective a system for welfare of the masses(most important humans) as totalitarian communism. They're both extreme & oppressive. A blend of two is the ideal.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (43114)12/12/2003 10:49:39 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 74559
 
most folks in the US think when there's a problem, it's time to appeal to government. Especially in matters of "fairness" -- somehow it escapes people that it's men that are of the same nature which are in our government as those they desire to be protected from in the marketplace, workplace, educational system or wherever ...

very few think of government as the source of any problem ... just need better government or more.

Most people don't want real freedom because with it comes personal responsibility -- and that's not just with respect to the purview given to government here -- it extends to the job, the school, or any other social relationship ...

Generally, I'm glad we have police and armies -- "legitimate" agents of violence for the state -- I just think their use needs to be severely restricted.

fpr government -- less IS more ...

One needs look no further than our banking systems today to be sure of that ... very little of banking should be under government control. Anarchy would be better -- state control of banking and money has always turned out to be destructive -- at best, simply a means of wealth transfer for those in power -- at worst, a means of wealth destruction for the largest number.