NEWSDAY
Edwards, Lieberman Sinking Fast
By Elaine Kamarck
Elaine Kamarck is a lecturer at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
December 12, 2003
In the race for Democratic Idol, Howard Dean had a real Ruben of a week.
In the same week that "American Idol" winner Ruben Studdard started selling his hot first album, Howard Dean picked up the endorsement of former Vice President Al Gore and pushed the Bush White House into organizing against him. He solidified his front- runner status and made the come- from-behind scenarios of the other candidates increasingly improbable.
Several weeks ago, as promised, I said it was time for Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich to get off the stage. Of course they didn't listen. But they all had a point in the New Hampshire debate the other night when Ted Koppel suggested that maybe it was time for them to go: There are other candidates in the race doing nearly as badly as these three, and they have all spent more money.
If the Democrats had a Simon Cowell, the famously rude judge on "American Idol," it would be time to give the hook to some of the remaining candidates. Of the five who are vying to go one on one with Dean, there are plausible scenarios for three. Late-starting former Gen. Wesley Clark is reportedly raising a great deal of money and is gaining in New Hampshire. Sen. John Kerry has given up federal matching funds and can thus spend with abandon to rescue his sinking fortunes in New Hampshire. And Rep. Dick Gephardt has the potential for a surprise showing in Iowa that could catapult him into New Hampshire.
But, for Sens. John Edwards and Joe Lieberman, the outlook is not good.
With little more than five weeks left to go before the curtain goes up on this contest, Edwards is reduced to trying to come in fourth in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, in the hope that somehow this will make him the alternative to Dean. But a new poll in New Hampshire gives him 5 percent of the vote.
Moreover, Edwards had pinned his campaign on being the one Southerner running. Until Clark from Arkansas got into the race. A Southerner running a Southern strategy is always a problem. The Southerner is expected to win in the South - just as a New Englander is expected to win in New England (hence John Kerry's current problem). In the weird world of the Democratic Idol, winning in your own backyard doesn't count as much as winning in someone else's backyard. Thus, the news that Dean from Vermont has a narrow lead in one recent South Carolina poll does not bode well for Edwards' future.
Joe Lieberman's problem has been and continues to be that, in spite of respectable national poll rankings, he has never been close to first in any of the states that come early. The outlook for Lieberman in Iowa was so dismal that he had to pull out. In New Hampshire, he ranks way down in the polls. Lieberman is moving to New Hampshire soon in an effort to save his candidacy, but he faces huge odds. Of all the candidates, he has the highest negatives in the state and lately he has been runningads featuring testimonials from former supporters of Sen. John McCain. This is a high-risk strategy given that McCain, for all his independence, was and is a Republican. Since Lieberman's candidacy has been plagued by the suspicion that he too is a Republican, this is an attempt to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
One can't help compare the predicaments of Edwards and Lieberman to Kimberly Caldwell, one of the "American Idol" semi-finalists, voted off the show weeks before the final event. In fact, Caldwell and Edwards would make a nice couple. Caldwell has fabulous all-American good looks and a Texas accent. Edwards has a North Carolina accent and fabulous all-American good looks. At age 50, he barely looks a day over 35. (Caldwell and Lieberman would make a nice couple, too, if you think that every nice Southern girl needs a kind Jewish uncle.)
Throughout last year's contest for "American Idol," Caldwell seemed destined for something big, as did both Edwards and Lieberman when this race began. Eleven months ago, people wrote glowing articles in glossy magazines about Edwards as the rising new star in the Democratic Party. In 2000 he was prominently mentioned as a potential vice presidential candidate for Gore. But Gore chose Lieberman as his running mate in 2000. At the beginning of this year's contest, Lieberman's name recognition gave him the No. 1 or 2 spot in almost all the national polls.
But the pre-primary year has not been kind to either of these men. Also-ran Kimberly Caldwell had the endearing but somewhat irritating habit of bursting into tears - often. Edwards had the somewhat less endearing habit of repeating, often, in answer to most any question, that he grew up poor and went to college and was now not poor. Many people in America start off poor and get rich - but most of them do not think this is a reason to run for president.
The other night one Democrat summed up Edwards' year: "Being cute is not enough." Edwards is simply too green to run for president. He has spent only four years in elected office. He has never balanced a government budget, cajoled a government bureaucracy into doing things his way or passed a significant piece of legislation. He has a 60-page policy book and some very good ideas, but absolutely no track record that would convince us, the judges of this contest, that he would be good at the job. When he discusses policy, he exudes the facile optimism of the successful trial lawyer he used to be. In an age of terrorism, wars and uncertain economic forecasts, a policy book is no substitute for gravitas.
Unlike Edwards, Lieberman has plenty of experience and would probably make a really good president. But like Kimberly Caldwell, who made some poor choices in music along the way, Lieberman doesn't have very good music. He started off his campaign playing presidential primary politics by buckling under to union pressure in the debate over the Department of Homeland Security. The department, Lieberman's baby, became the president's baseball bat, and he beat the Democrats over the head with it in the midterm elections. The harder Lieberman tried to be a Democrat, the worse he did. So he changed course. Now he touts his independence and aligns himself forcefully with Bill Clinton's New Democratic philosophy. But Clinton and Gore had freedom to be new Democrats because they were so clearly Democrats. Gore had genuine leadership in the environmental movement, and Clinton had a preternaturally strong link with African-Americans and, of course, Hillary. Lieberman has no natural left-of-center constituency.
These are serious men. One of them, Lieberman, is ready to be president and the other, Edwards, could be ready in a few years. But, as Caldwell discovered, looks can only get you so far - and then you have to be able to sing.
Elaine Kamarck is a lecturer at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. She served in the Clinton-Gore administration and can be reached at eckamarck@aol.com.
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