Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (87396)	12/12/2003 11:50:02 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I've thought about the Presidential cycle a lot - and I think there's sufficient evidence to expect them to be disappointed. Presidents prime the pump in Q2&Q3 of the year before the election, having been told by their economists that this action produces a self-sustaining recovery about a year later, leading into the election. However, this time around, there is little kindling for that self-sustaining recovery. No pent up housing, auto, or consumer demand, and little corporate demand. The attempts to fight the downdraft of the last few years have made sure of that. Debt was never paid down in the "recession" either. Further, ineffective tax cuts have left us without anything to show for our gaping government deficits, except a few more corporate profits and some additional investment - in China, of course. Certainly hasn't produced investment and jobs domestically. But the biggest factor is the secular bear that I feel certain started in 2000. It was just too colossal an event not to be THE top. In the most recent secular bear, the 48-month cycle spent more time going DOWN than up, and I doubt this will be any different. Look at the cyclical bulls off the 1966, 1970, 1974, and 1978 lows. For those 16 years, the up legs all terminated early in the cycle. Even earlier, adjusted for the depreciating currency underneath. I think we're in the turn window for this 48-month cycle, and I doubt the illusion can be sustained up to the election. BC