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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (3305)12/12/2003 6:49:28 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Hi Russ, <<Game of chicken, who blinks first?>>

I will not guess at who will blink first, but I will state that China, the new variable in the G7/G8 equation, will upset the apple cart first :0)

Message 19591265

If China inflates and US deflates, then I guess RMB re-valuation against the USD is off the table ;0)

Either way, looks like gold will go higher.

For fun, I will try to get a gold bar in Beijing during this day and see how I do.

Chugs, Jay



To: russwinter who wrote (3305)12/13/2003 11:22:46 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
This is interesting Russ
prudentbear.com

I will definitely no longer give Freddie Mac the benefit of the doubt. At the minimum, I will assume that Freddie is more financially vulnerable, with some potentially serious holes in its risk management strategies and implementation. I will also give some credence to the minority view that perhaps the Fed is sticking with short-term rates to protect the financially fragile GSEs. And, importantly, we haven’t heard the last from OFHEO’s Director, Mr. Falcon. His organization is in a continuing examination of the role played by the Wall Street firms and appears poised to take a much closer look at Fannie. He is even threatening to limit Freddie’s retained portfolio growth and require additional capital until the mess is resolved. As a regulatory body – with congress incapable of surmounting the powerful GSE lobby – Mr. Falcon and OFHEO have an exciting new lease on life. Perhaps they will even develop the teeth that a disgraceful Washington has never allowed them to grow.

The Fraud at Freddie is certainly another clear indictment of Wall Street. It still amazes me that there has been so little backlash, despite the instrumental role The Street played in a series of major frauds including the hideous Enron affair. But, then again, contemporary finance has Wall Street in firm control of the purse strings, as well as the power center for sustaining the revered financial and economic Bubbles. The Wall Street/”beltway” partnership is stronger than ever; The Street has never seen itself as more bulletproof.

Thomas Jones, Chairman of the audit committee, recalled expressing his views to Leland Brendsel in March 2003: ‘Leland, with all due respect, in my view you’ve put the company in a very difficult situation. You’ve effectively lost control of our accounting and financial reporting status and we’re now sitting in a situation where we don’t have audited financial statements in the market and we’re one of the most critical financial entities in the capital markets. In my view it is unpardonable to not have audited financial statements that investors can rely upon and in my view in this league you don’t get second chances. You’ve been paid a lot of money to do this job and to me it’s unacceptable that we don’t have audited financial statements that investors can rely upon.’ The intense efforts to manage reported earnings at Freddie Mac drained the skills of many of the most talented employees of the Enterprise. Those efforts compromised the integrity of many employees and damaged the effectiveness of the internal control structure at Freddie Mac. The quest to manage earnings eventually led to the termination of the most senior executives of the Enterprise, and resulted in one of the largest restatements in U.S. corporate history.”

I’ll wrap this up with a conversation documented by OFHEO in its report between a Freddie Mac employee and a Morgan Stanley derivative trader executing one of the sham derivative transactions:



Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “We’ve been trained whenever people come in and start doing this kind of stuff, we’ve gotta ask why. Like not why, but like, everything’s yeah. I don’t want to be taken off in handcuffs here for doing something that’s not kosher.”



Mr. Powers (Freddie Mac): “How much are you making off this trade? (laughs)”



Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “I don’t know.”



Mr. Powers (Freddie Mac): “You haven’t even looked at it. (laughs)”



Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “I’m just…You know what I’m saying…I mean, I don’t mind if there’s an accounting reason for you to do this and it makes you guys money. That’s fine. You know, we’re ok with it.”



Mr. Powers (Freddie Mac): “That’s where we are. We have an accounting reason for doing it. And, um, we’re basically…we’re offsetting some…



Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “I mean you could tell me there’s some asset liability reasons for you to be doing this, and I’m ok with that.”



Mr. Powers (Freddie Mac): “I think that’s a much as I’d…I don’t want to tell you…”



Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “I don’t want to be taken into a courtroom, though, Ray, is what I’m saying, okay?”



Mr. Powers (Freddie Mac): “Yeah…No, no, no. This is not… This is basically an asset liability, cash flow management issue.”



Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “Okay, I’m with you.”



Mr. Powers (Freddie Mac): “The thing is…because of the shape of the curve, um the geography of our carry in terms of the calendar gets screwed up. So all of a sudden, we have an uneven carry picture to manage and we strive for stability…”

Mr. Lavelle (Morgan Stanley): “If that’s what you want to do, I’m, we’re ok with that and we’re happy to do it with you, so we can do a lot of this if you want.”



To: russwinter who wrote (3305)1/6/2004 7:49:37 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Russ, <<Game of chicken, who blinks first?>>

I do not have an opinion on implications/dangers/opportunities of the linked report, but provide it for back-of-mind consideration by other readers:

Message 19658477
from CItibank ... 10% of China's reserves now tied up in shoring up 2 Chinese State Banks. Final solution or band-aid??

Subject: China FX and Fixed Income Implications of China's latest bank recap on FX/bond markets