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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (87409)	12/12/2003 3:14:09 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

It's the presidential election cycle, and it's the strongest cycle present in our markets. It bottoms - pretty much without fail - two years after every election, and runs 48 months - the length of the presidency. The upswing is caused every time by the president trying to buy the next election. It usually spends 2/3-3/4 of the cycle going the direction of the secular trend. You don't even need any fancy math to see this one. It's so obvious, just pull up a 100 year chart of the Dow. Since elections are all in years that are 4n (1992,1996,2000), the bottoms are all around October in years 4n-2 (1990,1994,1998). BC