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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (508485)	12/12/2003 3:07:49 PM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769669

Forecast for 2004: Best Economy in Two Decades The Conference Board PRNewswire Friday, Dec. 12, 2003 NEW YORK – Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board has projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7 percent next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years. The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6 percent next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3 percent this year. The economic forecast is prepared for more than 2,500 corporate members of The Conference Board's global business network, based in 66 nations. "Growing business spending and continued strength in consumer spending are generating growth throughout the U.S. economy," says Fosler. "This burgeoning strength is reflected in The Conference Board's widely watched Leading Economic Indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Help-Wanted Advertising Index. While the labor market, a critical factor in sustaining growth, is growing slowly, a pickup in hiring may already have begun." Real consumer spending, which continues to fuel growth, will increase at a 4.7 percent pace next year, up from about 3.2 percent this year. Another gain, of 4.3 percent, is projected for 2005. Though the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than 1 million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6 percent in 2004. The Conference Board forecast notes that as the U.S. economy bounces back, so is Europe, although growth will be subdued compared to most other major parts of the world. "For all the concern about a weak dollar," says Fosler, "the dollar will be worth more than the euro by the end of the year." Real capital spending, which will rise by only 2.7 percent this year, will climb 11.7 percent next year and an additional 8.6 percent in 2005. Pretax corporate operating profits will top $1 trillion next year, up from a projected $928 billion this year. Another trillion-dollar-plus gain in profits is expected in 2005. The continued recovery in business profits, which was a key ingredient in funding new investment (crucial in making 2004 a strong growth year), depends on price relief. Business profits will benefit from improved volume and recovering profit margins in 2004, as inflation creeps back toward 3 percent by the end of the year.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (508485)	12/12/2003 4:33:01 PM
From: geode00	Respond to of 769669

One million new jobs next year? The rate will probably go up. It would take about 2 million new jobs to cause the rate to drop. Right, I didn't understand those calculations either. I thought it took about 150K/month = 1.8 million just to keep up with new entrants in the job market. I don't see how 1 million helps. Also, the other part of the equation is the relationship between GDP growth and productivity growth. If GDP growth is on fire, great. However, if productivity growth is also on fire as it has been (slave drivers unite!) then we will still feel the sting of unemployment. Something's very odd in this although I would be very happy to see a robust economy.