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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3318)	12/12/2003 3:37:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

to assume Greeny remains in control of STrates is folly in the exuberant mid 1990's, he was pulled into lowering STrates later in the 1990's, he was pulled into raising rates his error is in going too far, after the long end tells him to stop in July, the long end revolted he has not stopped that is precisely his error you assume he can go counter to the gold price, the USDollar trend, and the CRB index he cannot in the next two years, I expect widespread faith in the Fed to be destroyed and the USDollar will succumb in the process / jim

To: mishedlo who wrote (3318)	12/12/2003 4:17:06 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<He is TELLING THE WHOLE FN WORLD rates are going to be held low, yet everyone wants to bet against it.> It's a fair bet IMO: today we got $410 gold, $1.00 Cu, $33 oil, $7 NG, the USD below 89, another Baltic freight spike, and on and on. Easy Al can't operate in a vacuum. Rest of the world is in inflation shock mode.

To: mishedlo who wrote (3318)	12/14/2003 1:22:56 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

< I think a lot of this nonsense is just to get Bush re-elected> No doubt. However, any glance at the history of currency crises will show that LONG before a nation sports a government deficit and official interest rates as far out of synch as those now displayed by the US, that nation's currency has CRASHED in ruins. Barring a RADICAL change in direction, that fate awaits the US Dollar. Judging by the latest FOMC thoughts, there is no prospect of a change in direction, radical or otherwise. President Bush has just confirmed (echoing his Treasurer, Mr. Snow) that the US has a "strong Dollar policy". This might just be the catalyst needed for the beleaguered Buck to REALLY go south. With the Fed having all but pledged to keep current US 1.00% interest rates intact until 2005, the Dollar has certainly got its work cut out for it. On the Gold front, Investors are not yet confident that Gold won't go back BELOW $US 400. The "mini correction" this week followed by the close at a new high will be eating away at that lack of confidence. I see so much fear in Gold land. That is why Gold stock investors are still looking back at where Gold has been rather than looking forward to where it is going. Fear is still overcoming greed, so far. Gold stocks will take off as soon as investors are confident that Gold is not going back below $US 400. That could take place on any Comex spot future Gold close between $US 410 and 420. A few closes above the old cyclical high in 1996 at $414 should do the trick. The major potential danger I see is the practice of many banks to play a version of the $US "carry trade" against the $US. These banks are borrowing US Dollars at present VERY low rates to buy Other Foreign Currencies which yield much higher rates on a short-term basis. If this carry trade unravels, and all carry trades of this nature unravel eventually, these other currencies will correct, possibly violently, against the $US.