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To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (270583)	12/12/2003 6:56:16 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

More from Dan on the Gold Commitments of Traders data released this afternoon: Bill: It looks like we are beginning to see the first chink in the armor of the cartel judging from the Commitments Data as well as the daily release of the open interest figures. Total O.I. stood at 276,302 as of this Tuesday compared to 278,759 for Tuesday of last week or a reduction of 2,457 contracts. As of yesterday (Thursday, Dec 11) the open interest stood at 275,596 for a further reduction of 706 contracts. What is significant about all this is the fact that the data reveals a substantial drop in the Commercial short category of nearly 11,000 contracts in the last two weeks. TRANSLATION - the cartel is beginning to cut their losses and run. Judging from the price action in gold today, I would venture to say that they are running even further and I would not be the least bit surprised to see a further reduction in that category next week. Why this is so significant in my opinion is that for the last few years, the gold cartel has been the only significant short in this market. It is their forced exit which you and I and many others have long been awaiting which will propel the gold price substantially higher in the near future. I see nothing in the way of this market and $450 and they exit. What we also need to keep in mind is no one really knows when Barrick is going to be buying back those hedges or theirs either. They might be in the process of so doing or they might not hoping they could get a swift setback in price and then cover. Typically as what happens in the commodities markets, when everyone is expecting something to happen, it never does. So much for the drivel from Kaplan and others that the funds are overextended. What a joke! It is not the funds that are running, it is the commercial shorts and the specs are handing their heads to them on a proverbial plate. What is remarkable to see is the increase in the shorts attributed to the fund category. They have added more than 7,000 new short positions while adding a bit less than 6,000 next longs in the last two weeks. Looks like they were selling to some of the commercial shorts who were buying. The funds are still some 11,000 contracts shy of their recent peak in longs reached back in September this year when gold was trading near $380 and here we are with gold some $30 higher and plenty of room for them to pile on more longs and force out these new shorts by some other funds. All in all, we have one of the most bullish setups I can personally remember in any market - our commercial signal failure appears to have begun. The release next Friday will help confirm one way or the other. Dan GATA

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (270583)	12/13/2003 2:12:13 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Why follow these data on a daily basis? I've done a very thorough statistical analysis of the repo and coupon pass data (which I'd be happy to foward) against market performance and have found nothing. I'm sure I'm not the only person who has done such an analysis. There's a very human temptation to eyeball data and find an effect, but that doesn't mean that one exists. If there were a significant relationship, wouldn't it quickly exploited by arbitrageurs?